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Political Polls, Data Analysis and Outliers: Discuss
Posted By Barry Ritholtz On September 17, 2012 @ 8:25 pm In Data Analysis,Politics | Comments Disabled
A quick update on recent posts:
First off, the responses to my GOP insider’s email (GOP Sours on Romney ) surprised me. I assumed — wrongly apparently – that after 23,877 posts I would get the benefit of the doubt when I source an item. Regardless, the post was validated the next morning by Politico , whose discussion of infighting, leaking, and disdain for Romney in an article Inside the campaign: How Mitt Romney stumbled , was the talk of DC. (We haven’t even seen the fall out of the leaked video, shown here ).
This campaign just got a lot more interesting.
Last, a few questions came up on the polling data. I have found most of the polling data across the board to be mediocre, so I instead rely on 2 different sets of polls: 1) Real Clear Politics All Polls ; and 2) Nate Silver’s 538 . RCP is a composite of ALL the polls, and so theoretically shows all denominations; 538 was the most accurate pollster the past few elections.
Discuss . . .
GOP Sours on Romney 
Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog
URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/09/political-polls-data-analysis-and-outliers-discuss/
URLs in this post:
 GOP Sours on Romney: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/09/gop-sours-on-romney/
 Politico: http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=B6BEB452-8AF1-45FC-8831-9FCFF5CE1576
 here: http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/09/secret-video-romney-private-fundraiser
 Real Clear Politics All Polls: http://bit.ly/SM7juu
 Nate Silver’s 538: http://nyti.ms/Ubv0Hz
 Image: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/RCP-91712.png
 Image: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/538-electoral-college.png
 Presidential Futures Make a Big Move: Discuss: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/09/presidential-futures-make-a-big-move/
 Kudlow Comes Out for Obama: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/09/kudlow-comes-out-for-obama/
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