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Political Polls, Data Analysis and Outliers: Discuss

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On September 17, 2012 @ 8:25 pm In Data Analysis,Politics | Comments Disabled

A quick update on recent posts:

First off, the responses to my GOP insider’s email (GOP Sours on Romney [1]) surprised me. I assumed — wrongly apparently –  that after 23,877 posts I would get the benefit of the doubt when I source an item. Regardless, the post was validated the next morning by Politico [2], whose discussion of infighting, leaking, and disdain for Romney in an article Inside the campaign: How Mitt Romney stumbled [2], was the talk of DC. (We haven’t even seen the fall out of the leaked video, shown here [3]).

This campaign just got a lot more interesting.

Last, a few questions came up on the polling data. I have found most of the polling data across the board to be mediocre, so I instead rely on 2 different sets of polls: 1) Real Clear Politics All Polls [4]; and 2) Nate Silver’s 538 [5]. RCP is a composite of ALL the polls, and so theoretically shows all denominations; 538 was the most accurate pollster the past few elections.


RCP All Polls


538 Electoral College Map


Discuss . . .



GOP Sours on Romney [1]

Presidential Futures Make a Big Move: Discuss [8]

Kudlow Comes Out for Obama [9]

Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/09/political-polls-data-analysis-and-outliers-discuss/

URLs in this post:

[1] GOP Sours on Romney: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/09/gop-sours-on-romney/

[2] Politico: http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=B6BEB452-8AF1-45FC-8831-9FCFF5CE1576

[3] here: http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/09/secret-video-romney-private-fundraiser

[4] Real Clear Politics All Polls: http://bit.ly/SM7juu

[5] Nate Silver’s 538: http://nyti.ms/Ubv0Hz

[6] Image: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/RCP-91712.png

[7] Image: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/538-electoral-college.png

[8] Presidential Futures Make a Big Move: Discuss: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/09/presidential-futures-make-a-big-move/

[9] Kudlow Comes Out for Obama: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/09/kudlow-comes-out-for-obama/

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