Succinct summation of week’s events:


1) The ECB finally delivers bond buying details but not much different than what’s been expected for weeks.

2) German exports, IP and factory orders all better than expected in July.

3) Aug ISM services index unexpectedly rises to 53.7 from 52.6 but ISM said “respondents’ comments continue to be mixed, and for the most part reflect uncertainty about business conditions and the economy.”

4) Initial Jobless Claims fall to 365k from 377k.

5) Aug Vehicle Sales total 14.46mm SAAR, the best since the clunker month of Aug ’09 when it jumped to 14.6mm from 11.4 in the month prior.

6) Canada’s Aug jobs figure rises more than 3x expectations by a US population adjusted number above 300k.


1) Aug Payroll growth sluggish again with only 96k net jobs added, 103k of which from the private sector, about half of what ADP predicted yesterday. Unemployment rate falls to 8.1% but due to sharp drop in labor force size and decline in household survey. Participation rate falls to lowest since ’81 and no increase in avg hourly earnings m/o/m for the 1st time since Nov.

2) Aug ISM mfr’g remains below 50 for a 3rd straight month at 49.6 and ISM says “Comments from the panel generally reflect a slowdown in orders and demand, with continuing concern over the uncertain state of global economies.”

3) French unemployment rate for Q2 rises to 10.2%, the highest since Q3 ’99, 4)Australia reports an unexpected drop in Aug payrolls.

Category: Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

19 Responses to “Succinct Summation Of Week’s Events (09/07/2012)”

  1. willid3 says:

    was wondering. doesn’t any know what the job growth numbers were for the last decade? or since 2000? i seem to recall that they were about where they are now

  2. Futuredome says:

    Not to be picky, but LPR always just about drops in August and with the boomers leaving the workforce, LPR is going to continue to drop. It is the whole basis behind the “entitlement” crisis.

  3. The Debt Wall model projects Congress will again be handcuffed by its ($16.4 trillion) Debt Limit on Dec 26 2012.

    And with less than 9 weeks ’til Americans go to the polls, the TRI gauges GDP plunged to 0.5% in August, (from a robust 4.1% growth rate in December). Stay tuned for many more revenue misses and slashing of guidance thru Sept & Oct. Today’s TRI projection infers BEA will be announcing Q3 GDP of 0.4% (eleven days before the Election).

    Four days prior to voting day, BLS is likely to announce an 8.2% Unemployment Rate and dwindling job creation. The falling UR is a mirage. 150k left the labour force in July. 368k in August! This far exceeds the potential retirees from the 150k boomers turning 65 each month.

    Despite the TRENDLines Recession Indicator being at its worst level since the Great Recession, the mainly left-dominated media appears to have purged “double dip” from its on-air vocabulary. It continues to avoid the reporting of collapsing numbers in order to protect “the chosen one”.

    On the other side, Republicans in Congress still defer passing “final” legislation to address the source of the uncertainty causing this GDP pause (Sequester, Bush-era tax cuts, payroll holiday, increasing Debt Limit & ObamaCare costs to business). In so doing they ensure their actions do not buoy the ugly Q3 GDP number.

    Data analysis is clear the current downturn is not a inventory-inspired downturn of the conventional business cycle. Rather, it appears many consumers and business firms are pausing in anticipation of regime change. As evidence, TRI finds animal-sprits-plus for 2013H1 remain quite high. My current Race-for-the-White-House electoral college votes projection gives momentum to Romney for a Nov 6th victory.

    the charts:

  4. willid3 says:

    not sure we have an entitlement crises. after all back in 86 President Reagan fixed that. since then we have been over contributing to SS. while one might quibble that the treasuries weren’t the best investment (but then considering what happened to equities since then, you would have to admit it was the safest), and do we really think stiffing the American people by not repaying their loans (which is what treasuries are) will not make other buyers reconsider buying them any more? yes they are different treasuries. but to others thats on semantics at best
    now if you mean Medicare and Medicaid. they are having the exactly same issue that health care in the US is having. cost are ballooning out of control. but thats nothing new, its been doing that for over a decade now. its why just barely more than 50% of all companies that have offered health care as a benefit, still do. and that number has been dropping for over 4 years now. nothing new there.

  5. Futuredome says:

    As I said: the basis for.

    That kind of future is to murky to know which is why the CBO is as corrupt as the BLS. They create “fictions” and then sell it to the public.

  6. willid3 says:

    the hidden austerity program?

    seems the private sector has added almost 4.3 million jobs since the recession ‘ended’. but states and local governments have been on a job killing binge, mostly cutting teachers and more teachers. and more than offsetting the private sector jobs created

  7. carleric says:

    I have a problem feeling any sympathy for reductions in the overstaffed public sector. We can always stand to cut evermore of the “educational” and “public safety” overhead. This whining by liberal progressives about reduction in government employees is both pathetic and laughable.

  8. VennData says:

    Negative. The connected, famous and lawyered get off…

    “Victory is mine!!!!” Vilma wrote on Twitter shortly after the news of the appeal’s outcome became public.

    He needs tax cuts too. These job creators.

  9. willid3 says:

    well some may not care about the teachers job, or police officers job, or fireman’s job. until they get robbed, or have a fire. or have kids, while i suppose you can always hire a business to do those things, it will cost a lot more, and in some cases not be as good, but in the mean time where you work (or business you own) now has fewer customers. or the customers you do have have fewer ones. leading to loosing the business, or job

  10. RC says:

    The quality of data collection that results into this headline Jobs number is so shoddy that +/- 100,000 could be the margin of error.
    Isn’t it incredible that there is so much attention paid to this number.

    If this number is a compass for navigating the ship of state for the Fed, then God help us. Use of this sort of compass can result into reaching Antarctica when trying to go to Indonesia from the United States :-)

  11. willid3 says:

    the problem with the jobs stats i have heard is many fold. partly they are dependent on businesses actually responding (some times they aren’t real quick with the info, if they do it all) and then there are the businesses that fail, and of course we dont get that info either. when you depend on what seems like almost voluntary responses to get the data, you end up with a very wishy washy result. and the other part of the data comes from calling and talking to individuals. and that data isn’t any better.

  12. JimRino says:

    So, Germany’s plan is to Rob Greece of it wealth and jobs.

  13. philipat says:

    The BLS finds it easier to manipulate the size of the labour force than the number of jobs created. Rick Santelli, the only person on CNBS worth listening to, nailed it when he said he will predict the October unemployment percentage right now at 7.9%. That report is, of course, just a few days before the Presidential election.


    BR: Let me remind you that George W. Bush could not fire US Attorneys (secretly & unlawfully) without it coming to public attention. If anyone changed the algos or otherwise manipulated the data, do you really believe in this day and age it would remain secret?

  14. eliz says:

    Here’s a piece about how Romney’s Bain is doing their part for U.S. workers. Click here.

    The piece is a month old, but just came to my attention.

    Why anyone who is part of the 99% would vote for Romney is beyond me. I’m certainly not in love with Obama, giving his ear to Summers, Geithner et al., but Romney strikes me as the epitome of all that is wrong with the current phantom wealth- financialize everything paradigm. The man is not about producing anything, just draining money from anything productive.

  15. ilsm says:

    The US war machine continues to take more than 5% of GDP even as there are no first world armies, navies or air forces to tilt with.

    That is an increase in part of GDP for war of nearly 50% since the US went to war with terrorism. Most of it is welfare for arms sellers.

    While tens of thousands of teachers are let go, and infrastructure crumbs, the SS and medicare treasuries have gone to war profits.

  16. dougc says:

    The media fixates on number of jobs created and the unemploynent rate and ignores that most of the jobs created are low paying or temporary or part time and most of the employment gains in this reocvery have been in the +55 age group.
    The result of the “Alien vs the Predator” presidentail race offers no solutions ( filling more potholes or cutting taxes) that will recreate a dynamic self sustaining recvery.

  17. philipat says:

    “do you really believe in this day and age it would remain secret?”

    Conversely, in this day and age, do you still blieve in the total integrity of Government and/or that the BLS is not subject to political pressure? IMHO, there are independent Organisations which also measure jobs created (ADP etc) so there is some control. Numbers for those who “Left the workforce” is far less precise and entirly within the domain of Government data, therefore more opaque and more open to “Rounding”.


    BR: BLS runs a model.

    To quote George Box, Professor Emeritus of Statistics at the University of Wisconsin, “Remember that all models are wrong, but some are useful.”

  18. philipat says:

    If we apply a n average participation rate, unemployment reaches 11.2%.

    But, heck, let’s not argue and just use U-6 instead?

  19. philipat says:

    Alternatively, we just keep on this trend with the paercentage not paticipating and before too long we have no unemployment but almost half of the working population not participating. This again indicates that either there is something wrong with the data OR we are heading for a situation where half the working age population is not working and dependent on Food Stamps, Disability and Unemployment benefits etc. Either way, things are not right.