Succinct summation of week’s events:

Positives:

1) Sept NAHB builder sentiment rises to 40 from 37, the best since June ’06.
2) Existing home sales in Aug totals 4.82mm annualized, well above est of 4.56mm and the most since Nov ’09 with months supply falling to 6.1 from 6.4.
3) Single family housing starts at most since Apr ’10 tax credit boost.
4) Philly mfr’g remains negative but less so at -1.9 from -7.1 and est of -4.5. 6 mo outlook rises to 41.2 from 12.5 but with caveat that production in Q4 will see “continued deceleration.”
5) Spain sells 4.8b euros of 3′s and 10′s, above 4.5b euro target with 82% being cheaper 3′s.
6) German ZEW 6 month economic outlook still negative but improves to -18.5 from -25.5 helped out by ECB talk.
7) For asset prices only, BoJ joins printing party.

Negatives:

1) Initial Jobless Claims total 382k, 7k more than expected and 4 week avg at most since late June.
2) NY mfr’g in Sept falls to -10.4 from -5.9, the weakest since Nov ’10.
3) Multi family starts fall by 11k and permits drop by 9k.
4) Notwithstanding Fed’s MBS QE, avg 30 yr mortgage rate falls just 1 bp on the week to 3.51%, refi apps rise only .8% and purchase apps drop 3.8%.
5) Euro zone mfr’g and services index falls to lowest since June ’09.
6) German ZEW current conditions drops to weakest since June ’10.
7) HSBC China mfr’g PMI remains below 50 for 11th straight month at 47.8 vs 47.6 in Aug, Shanghai index at lowest since Mar ’09.
8) China FDI falls for 9th month in past 10, although not as much as expected in Aug.
9) BoJ should know better than most that printing way to prosperity doesn’t work.

Category: Markets

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5 Responses to “Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (9/21/12)”

  1. Molesworth says:

    Positive: ECRI’s WLI is positive and reflecting 2 of their 3 P’s: Pronounced and persistent. Whether or not it is pervasive I don’t know but it does seem to fly in the face of the Achuthan recession call unless, as he suggests, we’re in a recession now and the market does not care.

    ~~~

    BR: How is that positive?

  2. With less than 7 weeks ’til Americans go to the polls, the American economy continues to be a pawn of the campaigns. My Debt Wall model projects Congress will again be handcuffed by its ($16.4 trillion) Debt Limit on Jan 8 2013.

    To mitigate the uncertainty of this and other fiscal cliff issues, an increasing number of consumers and business firms have been hitting the pause button since Memorial Day. TRI gauges GDP plunged to 0.3% in August, down from a robust 4.1% growth rate in December. Stay tuned for many more revenue misses and slashing of guidance over the next six weeks. Today’s TRI projections infer BEA will be announcing Q3 GDP of 0.2% eleven days before the Election.

    Four days prior to voting day, BLS is likely to announce an 8.2% Unemployment Rate and dwindling job creation. The falling UR is a mirage. 518k souls left the labour force this Summer!

    Despite the TRENDLines Recession Indicator being at its worst level since the Great Recession, the mainly left-dominated media appears to have purged “double dip” from its on-air vocabulary. It is apparent they’re avoiding to report the collapsing numbers in order to protect “the chosen one”.

    But there is good news. The Senate’s gang of 8 is back on the job and readying draft legislation for the lame-duck session to address the source of the uncertainty causing this GDP pause: Sequester, Bush-era tax cuts, payroll holiday, increasing Debt Limit & paring of entitlements.

    The current downturn is not a inventory-inspired downturn of the conventional business cycle. TRI finds animal-sprits-plus for the post election period remain quite high and are in fact increasing. My current Race-for-the-White-House electoral college votes projection indicates an Obama victory on Nov 6th despite the Romney momentum.

    Debt Wall & TRI charts: http://trendlines.ca/free/economics

  3. Ted Kavadas says:

    IMHO another notable development this week was some of FedEx’s comments on Tuesday…especially when viewed in conjunction with the “price action” of the Dow Jones Transportation Index and Shanghai Composite.

    For those interested, I highlighted a couple of the notable FedEx comments in my blog post here:

    http://economicgreenfield.blogspot.com/2012/09/notable-fedex-comments-of-september-18.html

  4. Molesworth says:

    Below is WLI for the past year. The trend is definitely positive IMHO. If I’m wrong, please explain.
    23-Sep-11 120.9 -8.1
    30-Sep-11 120.2 -9.2
    07-Oct-11 119.8 -10.1
    14-Oct-11 120.0 -10.6
    21-Oct-11 121.0 -10.5
    28-Oct-11 121.9 -9.8
    04-Nov-11 122.3 -8.8
    11-Nov-11 121.7 -8.1
    18-Nov-11 122.1 -7.6
    25-Nov-11 120.9 -8.0
    02-Dec-11 122.4 -7.8
    09-Dec-11 122.1 -7.6
    16-Dec-11 121.0 -7.9
    23-Dec-11 120.7 -7.8
    30-Dec-11 120.0 -8.5
    06-Jan-12 121.5 -8.5
    13-Jan-12 123.4 -7.4
    20-Jan-12 123.2 -6.3
    27-Jan-12 123.3 -4.9
    03-Feb-12 123.5 -4.0
    10-Feb-12 123.5 -3.8
    17-Feb-12 123.3 -3.5
    24-Feb-12 124.2 -3.0
    02-Mar-12 124.6 -2.4
    09-Mar-12 125.1 -1.6
    16-Mar-12 125.7 -0.5
    23-Mar-12 126.2 0.4
    30-Mar-12 126.7 1.4
    06-Apr-12 126.1 1.9
    13-Apr-12 124.0 1.3
    20-Apr-12 124.2 0.7
    27-Apr-12 124.8 0.2
    04-May-12 125.5 0.1
    11-May-12 124.5 0.5
    18-May-12 123.1 0.2
    25-May-12 122.3 -0.6
    01-Jun-12 121.5 -2.0
    08-Jun-12 122.0 -2.9
    15-Jun-12 121.3 -3.3
    22-Jun-12 121.5 -3.5
    29-Jun-12 121.6 -3.2
    06-Jul-12 123.0 -2.6
    13-Jul-12 121.9 -2.2
    20-Jul-12 122.9 -1.5
    27-Jul-12 122.3 -1.1
    03-Aug-12 122.7 -1.0
    10-Aug-12 123.0 -0.4
    17-Aug-12 123.4 0.0
    24-Aug-12 123.7 0.7
    31-Aug-12 124.0 1.3
    07-Sep-12 124.7 1.9
    14-Sep-12 125.4 2.7