Click to enlarge:

Source: Bloomberg BRIEF


A run of excellent charts from Richard Yamarone of Bloomberg, who notes:

“It’s back to reality for the jobs situation; the economy added a lowly 96,000 nonfarm payroll jobs during August while the July report was revised lower to a monthly gain of 141,000 from a previously reported increase of 163,000. Investors should anticipate a similarly weak employment picture going forward as the economy is simply not advancing at a pace sufficient to engender desirable job gains. U.S. GDP advanced by just 1.7 percent in the second quarter with many top tier indicators (ISM, new orders, regional Fed surveys) pointing to a deceleration in the second half of the year.”

If you have any questions for Yamarone, please use comments and I will ask him tomorrow evening (when I stick him with the check for dinner!).

Alternatively, you can ask him yourself at The Big Picture Conference October 10th.


More charts after the jump




Bloomberg BRIEF
September 10, 2011

Category: Employment

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

12 Responses to “Yamarone: Lackluster NFP Raises Likelihood of Fed Action”

  1. dead hobo says:

    BR offered:

    If you have any questions for Yamarone, please use comments and I will ask him tomorrow evening (when I stick him with the check for dinner!).

    Since the economy is expanding and employment is growing, why should the Fed add more liquidity? What is the transmission mechanism between MBS purchases by the Fed and more jobs? Is it only trickle down from Wall Street to main street? If not, please document. Are you repeating the claim of likely Fed expansion due to a bandwagon effect from other commentators or is this your independent analysis? If it is your personal analysis, please explain. If the Fed complies and prints more money, it it only to placate Wall Street whining and Wall Street’s desire for asset inflation? Do ‘inflationary expectations’ apply to asset bubbles or only to labor costs, as the recent rally seems to be a poster child application for inflationary expectations?

  2. NoKidding says:

    Today’s QOTD ought to be printed on the back of the one dollar bill.

  3. JerryC says:

    When our book is rather long, we love the idea of further QE. QE has little to do with employment and a lot to do with reducing / erasing gov. debt by screwing the saving class.

  4. eliz says:

    Fed action = higher food and fuel prices.

    /sarc on/
    A really swell option for “the small people.”
    /sarc off/

    The Fed is clearly an instrument of the bankers. Period. Forget the real economy. Forget working stiffs.

    It is just sickening.

  5. eurostoxx says:

    yamarone is great, love reading his thoughts bberg brief. my question would be,

    “It seems (to me) that some of the better predicting econometric inputs are surveys, like consumer confidence, ISM, Philly Fed etc. Are these surveys influenced much by the behavior of the equity markets, and if so, arent we just using circular logic”

  6. slowkarma says:

    Found this in an NBC story:

    “What central banks everywhere are doing is trying to make sure people are not focused on the world breaking apart,” said Dinakar Singh, CEO of TPG-Axon Capital. “Ultimately I don’t think lower rates make that much difference anymore. There aren’t that many people left that haven’t borrowed money — companies or people — but would if rates were lower.”

    Yeah, how about that? Have you been holding off at 3% hoping for 2.9%?

  7. NoKidding says:

    Chart of jobs created since trough has government employment shrinking. If we split that into federal, which gets its money by selling treasuries to the Fed, and local how does it look.

    A cynic would expect that big gov is getting bigger and little gov is getting smaller.

  8. bear_in_mind says:

    I know Bernanke can’t answer the counter-factual (i.e. what would have happened to employment if he hadn’t acted), however, I think it’s more than reasonable to question how even more QE is going to benefit employment? With the S&P500 at 1430 and UE still tracking above 8 percent, I think the “wealth effect” correlation is either bad theory or bad policy. Maybe both.

  9. The Window Washer says:

    Slowkarma: “Yeah, how about that? Have you been holding off at 3% hoping for 2.9%?”

    People don’t use that logic when doing a refi. They refi when the rate is low enough to lower their payment without incurring any closing cost. PERIOD.
    All the way down you get rates more than a percent below your current rate and you refi. Anyone on the fence thought the low 4′s was the bottom last year and jumped (rates in the 3′s and “no cost” close in the 4′s”). Get it into the 2′s with a “no cost” close in the 3′s and everyone does it again.

  10. The Window Washer says:

    Question for Richard:

    What mix of actions could the Fed put in place to effectively switch to NGDP targeting using the current dual mandate framework?

  11. JerryC says:

    –> Washer I know. I know. They should say that their monetary policy creates great moral hazard; screws the middle class ( if there’s any left ); and really is bullshit medicine for unemployment, Schumer’s “get to work” grandstanding aside. They then should remove salary and benefits ( ya, that nice health care, for example ) from the two legs of our gov. and reinstate it only when they can stop playing 7th grade politics and get some freeking infrastructure ( massively so ) going in this country to actually create employment; jobs which can’t be outsourced. For that third leg, I’d say forget the oratorio and just show one iota of leadership.

    Sadly, noting of the sort will happen until we’re so f*cked that there’s just on other way out. It’ll be too late, though, me thinks.

  12. Lord says:

    If Fed action results in asset price increases what is the problem? If it results in inflation, what stops them from raising interest rates? If it results in jobs, aren’t we all better off? How will we ever know if the Fed has done enough unless they start to do too much?

    I would be interested in them buying $1T platinum coins from Treasury. It reduces debt and the need for inflation at the same time it circumvents the debt ceiling.