My morning reads:

• Markets are up. Earnings are down. Here’s what’s really going on. (WP) see also Market Warning Signs (Stocktwits)
• Narula Masters Fed, Beats Funds With 500% Gain: Mortgages (Bloomberg) so sorry about that down 100% year in 2008…
• Stocks Skid Into Earnings Pothole (WSJ) see also 20% (WTF?) of US Firms Cook the Books During Earnings: Report (CNBC)
• New York mortgage trial could have broad impact on Wall Street (Reuters)
• On the Unsustainability of Austrian Business-Cycle Theory, Or How I Discovered that Ludwig von Mises Actually Rejected His Own Theory (Uneasy Money)
• Facebook: The Making of 1 Billion Users (Business Week) see also Facebook Fought SEC to Keep Mobile Risks Hidden Before IPO (Bloomberg)
• out of office reply (The Reformed Broker)
• The Index of Missing Economic Indicators; The Unemployment Myth (NYT) see also US underemployment is not as bad as you think (FT)
• The Renminbi Challenge (Project Syndicate)
• Does Biology Make us Liars? (The New Republic) see also Half of the Facts You Know Are Probably Wrong (Reason)

What are you reading?


There 3.5 People Looking for a Job for each Position available in August 2012

Source: Economic Populist

Category: Financial Press

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

19 Responses to “10 Thursday AM Reads”

  1. rd says:

    I am really surprised that only 20% cook the books.

  2. Gary says:


    Must read for anyone who believes that austerity budgets are the way out of this financial crisis. Post focuses on the IMF throwing in the towel on the1/2 multiplier effect of reducing government spending (a $1 reduction in government spending is supposed to drop GDP by $.50. Instead, evidence indicates the multiplier is between .90 and 1.70, definitely not good news for Europe and elsewhere.

  3. hue says:

    listened to “The Signal and Noise” Nate Silver’s book, why most predictions fail.

    “According to IBM, 90 percent of the data in the world was created within the last two years. So one problem is what we call the signal-to-noise ratio — the amount of meaningful information relative to the overall amount information is declining. We’re not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information — and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise.”

  4. Bob is still unemployed   says:

    Facebook – with 1 billion users comes the ability for very large security breaches.

    Facebook confirms researcher exploited privacy settings to quickly collect user phone numbers. A security researcher claimed to have found a security exploit that allows him to obtain more than 500 million names and telephone numbers from Facebook.

  5. VennData says:

    It’s not ‘cooking the books … the “free market’ FASB accounting regulations allow companies to recast, re-assign and do anything they want. It’s like so much in life, when Larry lawnmower starts commenting on things he knows nothing about, he takes the Reporter’s word and now has a narrative in his head…. complete nonsense. Neither the reporter or the commentors have ever read a financial statement or accounting regulation… yet they are making all sorts of judgements. Then… these people all go out and vote… and listen to the GOP’s media Machine about Socialism and gov’t regulations…

  6. Greg0658 says:

    hue my take on that factoid .. the system is being built up for future storage of the real meaningful stuff for the bill&brendaWineglasses & MIC – junk stuff planted by joe&jane6pack – ditch it .. even tho j6p paid for the buildup thru monthly bills of web access .. do I think the www power plants will be disassembled like Solyndra – got to be joke’g

    now is this Issue Real YES and my opinion up there is a half-truth

  7. willid3 says:

    whats driving the deficit? it isn’t what we have been told

  8. hue says:

    Greg, I’m not sure where you are heading.

    The second part of Silver’s comment is that while the Internet records everything, not all that data is very useful, it might include Youtube videos of people’s cats and teenage girls sending text messages.

    I remember the early days of the Internet and blogs, people thought we would be all smarter with more access to information. But the data can be use to spread disinformation or we choose data to confirm our existing bias. Data mining is more important than ever.

  9. thomas hudson says:


    not lies, just a little inaccurate:

    seems some california numbers were not included in the jobless claims. if those were included, it still would have beat most estimates, but nothing to brag about. job market still improving, but not at the rate we need it to.

  10. SecondLook says:

    I’m increasing being persuaded that the average GDP since 2000 is the new reality: 1.8% real average GDP growth – by consequence, if you remove the the best and worse years: 2000 @ 4.1@ and 2009 @ -3.5%, you still end up with just over that 1.8% figure.

    Round up and say 2% is what our economy is now capable of over the course of years (with obvious fluctuations), then the issue of unemployment has to looked at in a different way. That is, an unemployment rate below say 7.25-7.5% may simply be impossible to attain over the long run.

    If that is the case, then we have to consider how we structure ourselves, economically and socially to deal with a much higher rate of unemployment that we had during modern, post WW2 era.

  11. franklin411 says:

    Jack Welch: Doubling Down on Stupid

    Updated October 11, 2012, 1:18 p.m. ET

    Jack Welch: I Was Right About That Strange Jobs Report

  12. 873450 says:


    E-Mails Cited to Back Lawsuit’s Claim That Equity Firms Colluded on Big Deals


    Day in Manhattan. An impressive Bank Building in the financial center of New York. Many limousines are parked, uniforms and plain-clothed CHAUFFEURS waiting quietly.


    The Board Room of a bank, daylight shines in the windows.

    CARLO TRAMONTI, an impressive, handsome middle-aged man, sits quietly, smoking a Di Napoli cigar, OUR VIEW moves to a MAN sitting to his left, and a little to the rear, and settles on JOSEPH ZALUCHI, a moon-faced amiable-looking man; as the view continues, around the table, we HEAR:

    I want to thank you all for coming. I consider it a service done to me personally and I am in the debt of each and every one of you. Especially those of you who have traveled from such distances as California, St. Louis, Kansas City; and New Orleans…

    The VIEW PASSES to FRANK FALCONE and ANTHONY MOLINARI, both younger than any of the others; then on to DOMENICK PANZA, short and squat sitting in a wheelchair; then around the table to DON VINCENENZO FORLENZA, who is whispering to his JEWISH ASSISTANT; the VIEW PASSES on to ANTHONY STRACCI, an older man, sipping from a drink and smoking a cigar; OTTILIO CUNEO, in his middle sixties with a jolly round face; then DON PHILLIP TATTAGLIA, a delicate older man with dyed hair and a pencil mustache; and finally, EMILIO BARZINI, in his early sixties, a man to ‘respect’; whom we had seen at CONNIE’s Wedding.

    Ah well, let’s get down to business. We are all honorable men here, we don’t have to give assurances as if we were lawyers. (he sits, gazes out at them, and sighs) How did things ever go so far? Well, no matter. A lot of foolishness has come to pass. It was so unfortunate, so unnecessary.

    The VIEW examines the room once again, as the DON speaks. A large, clicking board is changing numbers at various times, and two tapes, showing the fluctuations of the Market during the day’s trading, and projected above.

    DON CORLEONE pauses; and TOM HAGEN hands him a cold drink.

    Tattaglia has lost a son; I have lost a son. We are quits. Let there be a peace… he gestures expressively, submissively, with his hands) That is all I want…

    Don Corleone is too modest. He had the judges and politicians in his pocket and he refused to share them. His refusal is not the act of a friend. He takes the bread out of the mouths of our families. Times have changed, it’s not like the old days where everyone can go his own way. If Don Corleone had all the judges and politicians in New York, then he must share them or let others use them. Certainly he can present a bill for such services, we’re not Communists, after all. But he has to let us draw water from the well. It’s that simple.

    My friends, I didn’t refuse out of malice. You all know me. When have I ever refused an accommodation? But why, this time? Because I think this drug business will destroy us in the years to come. It’s not like whiskey or gambling or even women which most people want and is forbidden them by the pezzonovante of the Church and the Government. But drugs? No. Even policemen, who help us in gambling and other things would refuse to help us in drugs. But…I am willing to do whatever all of you think is necessary.

    I don’t believe in drugs. For years I paid my people extra so they wouldn’t do that kind of business…$200 a week. But it didn’t matter. Somebody comes to them and says, “I have powders, if you put up three, four thousand dollar investment, we can make fifty thousand distributing.” Who can resist such a profit? There’s no way to control it, as a business…to keep it respectable. rapping the table) I don’t want it near schools! I don’t want it sold to children. That is an infamita. (thinking) In my city I would try to keep the traffic in the dark people, the colored. They are the best customers, the least troublesome, and they are animals anyway. They have no respect for their wives or their families or themselves. Let them lose their souls with drugs. But something has to be done, we can’t have everybody running around doing just what they please, like a bunch of anarchists.

    Then, are we agreed; the traffic in drugs will be permitted, but controlled; and Don Corleone agrees to give it protection in the East.

    DON CORLEONE nods.

    That’s the whole matter then, we have the peace, and let me pay my respects to Don Corleone, whom we have all known over the years as a man of his word. (noticing TATTAGLIA is uneasy) Don Philip?

    I agree to everything here, I’m willing to forget my own misfortune. But I must hear strict assurance from Corleone. When time goes by and his position becomes stronger, will he attempt any individual vengeance?

    They all look at the DON; especially HAGEN, who feels that DON CORLEONE has given a great deal, and must have something else in mind. Slowly the DON rises.

    I forego my vengeance for my dead son, for the common good. But I have selfish reasons. My youngest son had to flee, accused of Sollozzo’s murder, and I must now make arrangements so that he can come home with safety, cleared of all those false charges. That is my affair, and I will make those arrangements. (with strength) But I am a superstitious man…and so if some unlucky accident should befall my youngest son, if some police officer should accidentally shoot him, or if he should hang himself in his cell, or if my son is struck by a bolt of lightning, then I will blame some of the people here. That, I could never forgive, but…aside from that, let me swear by the souls of my Grandchildren that I will never be the one to break the peace we have made.

  13. VennData says:


    I built that, not you.

    – Jack Welch

    P.S. You Lie. Just like those liberals who’ve been lying about Romney lying. End of discussion. Every year we cull the bottom 10% of commenters. You’re fired.

  14. Greg0658 says:

    hue – I’ll explain with less __ via bullet points (always imo):

    - regular people buy the interwebs with monthly subscriptions after labor’g somewhere somehow
    (not business catalogs, not street surveillance, not blogs)
    - I expect the regular people to loose their stuff 1st
    (ie: the perceived junky stuff)
    - flipside – the junky stuff is junk
    (but goto point 1)
    - the web file cabinet is growing exponentially
    - we all pay for all that in everything we buy
    (ie: hidden inflation* of $law via expectations)

    * probably – a minor worry compaired to other paper pushes

    this . 606 new bytes

  15. DiggidyDan says:

    Nice post by Josh Brown. The truth hurts, and is hilarious at the same time, you jaded knaves must be good company, BR and Mr. Brown.

  16. Greg0658 says:

    hue (sp?) of borg w/capt picard
    just for fun ..
    & f the bytes wasted :-)
    what are toys for ?

    Madonna – Everybody [The First Album]

  17. Disinfectant says:

    Barry, I’m not familiar with Narula’s past other than what is in the Bloomberg article, but it says he lost 7% in 2007 while liquidating his fund. He then started raising cash for another fund in 2008, presumably the one he is running today. So unless I’m missing something, your claim that he got wiped out is way off base.