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Debate/Spain/Call me, maybe?

Posted By Peter Boockvar On October 4, 2012 @ 7:56 am In MacroNotes | Comments Disabled

Regardless of which guy one is voting for, it’s hard to argue that there wasn’t a clear differentiation in the debate performance of the 2 candidates last night. Romney’s intrade odds of winning at 34% are just back to where they were the day before the 47% video was released but that is up from 26% yesterday and 21% on Sunday. Whether that is the reason for the bounce in the S&P futures this morning is unknown but European markets are trading flat. As the S&P 500 has doubled during Obama’s presidency, making a longer term call on the market based on who’s President is always difficult but at least for the last two months of 2012, the winner may solely determine how the year closes. Bigger picture, as has been the case for the past 4 yrs, the actions of our unelected Fed for better or for worse may unfortunately be the driver of US stocks in the next 4 yrs irrespective of who is President. In Europe, the BoE and ECB both left interest rates unchanged as expected with the ECB’s hands tied by 2.7% y/o/y gains in both CPI and PPI for Sept. Spain sold 3 debt issues totaling 3.99b euros, about in line with their target. Bank of Spain’s Gov said that based on their budget info thru Aug, “there is a risk of missing the objective set for this year.” After Draghi gave Spain his number, he’s thinking “Call me, maybe?”


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