My favorite quarterly chart book is out via JPMorgan. Here are two charts to tease you — go download the entire desk here.


S&P500 Index at Inflection Points
click for ginormous graphic


Market Returns Q3, 2012
click for ginormous graphic

Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Chart reflects index levels (price only). All returns and annotations reflect total returns, including dividends.  (Data updated as of 9/30/12).


Source: JPMorgan

Category: Investing, Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

8 Responses to “S&P 500 Index at Inflection Points, Market Returns”

  1. BenGraham says:

    Why on earth would they use FWD P/E at the inflection points? Is it using the EXPECTED fwd eps to calculate fwd P/E or actual? I suspect actual- which are unknowable, that’s why they were inflection points. Useless chart.

  2. MorticiaA says:

    Speaking of charts: ISI’s Mendelson highlighted the “last hour indicator” – index performance for the day vs. the last hour of trading. There’s a huge divergence – a sell sign.

  3. JimRino says:

    Yes, with a PE of 12.9, why would this be an inflection point?

  4. rd says:

    The top graph looks like the market is bouncing through life on a pogo stick.

  5. tshelton12 says:

    JP & David Kelley are typical wall street bulls. Put him in the same camp as Jeremy Seigel. I’ve never ever heard them tell you to sell stocks. They continue to use crazy economic projections and are wrong most of the time. They should be using Case/Shiller P/E and not forward P/E. If they did that chart would read P/E of 20+ right now and people would realize that the markets are slightly rich.

    This also looks like a perfect head and shoulder formation for what its worth.

  6. Pantmaker says:

    Hmm….an article that includes analysis based on forward p/e without a mention of the other most ridiculous financial meme….Mr. Cash on the Sidelines. If someone wants to discuss p/e, I want to hear about the future direction of the “e” part.


    BR: I am not sure you (or Ben Graham) are focused on the most important thing on these charts.

  7. Pantmaker says:

    To me the most important and interesting thing here is the yield on the 10 year. It sets up that which will referred to as” the unexpected decline in both asset classes.”

  8. [...] October is here, which means it is time for the quarterly market outlook from JP Morgan Asset Management (hat tip to B. Ritholtz). [...]