Bloomberg Brief points to this report from Carl J. Riccadonna, senior U.S.
Economist at Deutsche Bank, looking at the misery index — Inflation + Unemployment.

Riccadonna took the usual analysis one step further, applying it to the swing states in the Presidential contest. What did he find:

“The following states are “worse-off” based on the misery index over this period: Colorado, Missouri, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Florida is a toss-up. If these states go for Romney, his electoral tally will come in at a still-too-low 255. If he can also win states where the misery index is only marginally lower — meaning that the improvement in the economy has been tepid (less than 1 percent), he will also win Iowa, Minnesota and North Carolina, which pushes him to victory. In fact, any two of these would be sufficient.

Clearly, the economy is a major issue in the upcoming election and voters may be influenced by factors other than unemployment and inflation. To the degree that voters purely cast ballots along the guidelines of the misery index, the analysis points to a narrow reelection for President Obama. Of course, in a tight race any number of exogenous factors, such as voter turnout, may tip the balance.”

Your political mileage may vary . . .



Is the election meddling with the unemployment rate?
Deutsche Bank AG 5 October 2012
US Economics Weekly

Misery Index Analysis Suggests Narrow Obama Victory
Carl J. Riccadonna, director/senior U.S.
Economist, Deutsche Bank
Bloomberg Briefs, Oct 17, 2012

Category: Economy, Employment, Inflation, Politics

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

8 Responses to “Misery Index Analysis”

  1. JimRino says:

    There should be an effect this year, but, it should be to FIRE the Tea Party Congress.

  2. ellwood2011 says:

    9 out of 12 doesn’t seem terriby predictive. FWIW, I can get 9 out of 12 by a formula of “Republican wins unless winner of prior election fails to finish term in office”. That predicts every election except Clinton’s and Obama’s victories. So it’s equally accurate across your sample.

    The 2012 state by state analysis may be interesting but you don’t know if it is of any value unless you backtest it.

  3. Low Budget Dave says:

    I think you can extend the winning streak even longer than that. Remember that Gore actually won more votes than Bush, and was only made President by an action of the Supreme Court. In the subsequent election, both polls and paper ballots showed Bush losing. It was only when the paperless ballots were “counted” that the election turned the other direction.

    A cynical person would conclude that the polls were right and that the ballot counting process needs a bit more security. A cynical person would also wonder why Romney super-bundlers had chosen to purchase a company that makes peperless voting machines in several swing states.

    A cynical person would go ahead and place a large wager that Romney will be “elected” the next President.

    This is what passes for “investing” with asymmetric data.

  4. Master Shake says:

    What happens if you use Shadow Stats (i.e. real) numbers?


    BR: LOL They are as bad to the negative as BEA is to the positive

  5. Livermore Shimervore says:

    Obama needs only Ohio and Iowa. He can lose the following and still win:

    North Carolina
    New Hampshire

    Bush beat Gore in 2000 by ~150K. It fell further in 2004 to ~120K.
    Flipped in 2008 ~260K in favor of Obama and he’s lead all throughout the first debate debacle.
    In Florida, Republicans are unpopular and they’ve not reeled in more than 4 million votes in two consecutive elections (2004, 2008). Obama pulled the numbers up from 3.5 to 4.2 million and more than 12% of voters not affiliated with either party support Obama over Romney in the most recent Rasmussen poll.

    Romney needs a near perfect night.

  6. Livermore Shimervore says:

    oops (rick perry) Bush beating Gore by 150K was re Ohio.

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  8. globeville says:

    Those indices and their composition have changed significantly over the decades…wonder if the author accounted for that in coming up with the “pattern”