Yet another rule to add to our ongoing collection. This one comes from Economist David Rosenberg, formerly Merrill Lynch’s chief dismal scientist, now at Gluskin Sheff:
1. In order for an economic forecast to be relevant, it must be combined with a market call.
2. Never be a slave to the date – they are no substitute for astute observation of the big picture.
3. The consensus rarely gets it right and almost always errs on the side of optimism – except at the bottom.
4. Fall in love with your partner, not your forecast.
5. No two cycles are ever the same.
6. Never hide behind your model.
7. Always seek out corroborating evidence.
8. Have respect for what the markets are telling you.
9. Be constantly aware with your forecast horizon – many clients live in the short run.
10. Of all the market forecasters, Mr. Bond gets it right most often.
11. Highlight the risks to your forecasts.
12. Get the US consumer right and everything else will take care of itself.
13. Expansions are more fun than recessions (straight from Bob Farrell’s quiver!).
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.