Yet another rule to add to our ongoing collection. This one comes from Economist David Rosenberg, formerly Merrill Lynch’s chief dismal scientist, now at Gluskin Sheff:

1. In order for an economic forecast to be relevant, it must be combined with a market call.

2. Never be a slave to the date – they are no substitute for astute observation of the big picture.

3. The consensus rarely gets it right and almost always errs on the side of optimism – except at the bottom.

4. Fall in love with your partner, not your forecast.

5. No two cycles are ever the same.

6. Never hide behind your model.

7. Always seek out corroborating evidence.

8. Have respect for what the markets are telling you.

9. Be constantly aware with your forecast horizon – many clients live in the short run.

10. Of all the market forecasters, Mr. Bond gets it right most often.

11. Highlight the risks to your forecasts.

12. Get the US consumer right and everything else will take care of itself.

13. Expansions are more fun than recessions (straight from Bob Farrell’s quiver!).


Merrill Lynch
Economic Commentary

Category: Rules

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6 Responses to “Rosie’s Rules to Remember (an Economist’s Dozen)”

  1. crutcher says:

    #7 is confirmation bias.

  2. howardoark says:

    I think No. 2 should read “slave to the data,”

  3. wally says:

    “5. No two cycles are ever the same.”

    Then, by definition, there are no cycles in economics.

  4. Rich in NJ says:

    Patterns don’t necessarily have to be on all fours in order to be analogous, and i.e., have comparable significance.

  5. [...] – David Rosenberg’s rules to remember. [...]

  6. gordo365 says:

    #10 – Is Mr. Bond wrong this time?