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Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (10/12/12)

Posted By Peter Boockvar On October 12, 2012 @ 4:00 pm In Markets | Comments Disabled

Succinct summation of week’s events:

Positives:

1) UoM confidence in Oct rises to 5 yr high led by the Outlook component and inflation expectations recede.
2) Initial Jobless Claims, even with reporting issue, likely to be revised to still below 370k for 3rd straight week.
3) MBA said purchase apps rose 2.4% with historically low rates but that for now have stopped falling post FOMC news.
4) Core PPI in Sept was flat m/o/m vs est of up .2%.
5) Aug IP in the Euro zone rises .6% m/o/m vs est of a drop of .4%.
6) After week holiday, Shanghai index closes up almost 1% on week to near one month high after PBOC pumps large amount of yuan into money markets. 7) Chinese HSBC PMI services index rises 2.3 pts to 54.3.
8) Australian job gains are 3 times expectations in Sept.
9) India’s IP up 2.7% y/o/y in Aug vs est of up 1.1%.
10) South Korea and Brazil both cut interest rates with both having flexibility with positive REAL rates.

Negatives:

1) Chinese loan growth in Sept up 623b yuan, below est of 700b.
2) While now just in line with Moody’s, S&P downgrades Spain to BBB- putting 2 of 3 agencies on the cusp of putting Spain into junk territory, thus possibly shrinking the pool of potential buyers of their debt.
3) Sept PPI up 1.1% m/o/m vs est of up .8% led by 4.7% increase in energy prices. Pipeline inflation higher.
4) Sept Import Prices also up 1.1% led by energy (up just .2% without) .
5) Job openings in Aug fall to 4 month low.
6) MBA said refi’s fell 2% but after 20% gain in prior week.
7) Aug Trade Deficit in line with forecast but exports fall for 2nd straight month, 8) NFIB small business optimism index unexpectedly falls a touch from Aug.


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