10/22/2012 Futures

 

10/19/2012 Closing Prices

 

Following Friday’s 1.5% sell off (Nasdaq lost over 2%), there was a bubbling of concern that today could be another Black Monday.

The futures suggest that, at least as of the open, today is no Black Monday . . .

Category: Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

2 Responses to “Today is Not Looking Like a Black Monday . . .”

  1. Black Monday was preceded by a Dow Theory signal on 10/15/2012. So a primary bear market was signaled some few days in advance.

    A look at the 1987 charts shows that the market was technically much weaker than now:

    http://bit.ly/WxeDdT

    By the same token, in 1929, the big crash came after the primary trend of the market had turned bearish.

    So in most instances (nothing is carved in stone. Rule 11: flexibility), a crash is preceded by a very weak technical condition of the market which in Dow Theory is signaled by a primary bear market; not a mere correction.

    Currently, the primary trend remains bullish in spite of the ongoing correction. So the odds don’t favor right now a crash, but rather the completion of the current secondary reaction and a new upward primary swing.

    70% of primary bull markets end up with profits, so the odds favor a rising tide rather than a crash (which would imply losses and a failed Dow Theory signal).

    Regards.

  2. Squashy says:

    The futures prices listed here for 10/22 are lower than the closing index prices on 10/19. What’s the deal? thx.