My morning reads:

• The Death of Equities Has Been Greatly Exaggerated (NYT)
• Technical Analysis Fact and Fiction (Mercenary Trader) see also Is seasonality in VIX making it look more complacent that it really is? (Also Sprach Analyst)
• Moneyball Is a Hard Game to Play for Funds and Baseball Teams (Morningstar)
• Cliff Dwellers (Barron’s) but see If Entitlement Programs Are Your Top Priority, the Fiscal Cliff Is Your Friend (Baseline Scenario)
• Mark Cuban To Facebook: BUH-BYE I’m Going to Twitter (Read Write)
• Enhancing the Risk Disclosures of Banks (Deus Ex Macchiato) see also Endogenous money and fully reserved banking (Credit Writedowns)
• How a vicious circle of self-interest sank a California city (Reuters)
On not being boring: A dramatic reading of Apple’s share price (Asymco)
Pictorial: Venice Under Water (The Atlantic)

What are you reading?



S&P 500 and All Ten Sectors Remain Oversold

Source: Bespoke

Category: Financial Press

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

9 Responses to “10 Midweek AM Reads”

  1. techy says:

    Somewhere, there is a Christian Republic(wet dream of the religious rights in this country):

    I wonder when will humanity freed from the clutches of organized religion, anybody read any long term analysis of religion in USA, I just feel depressed that most of the kids down here in south(alabama, missisipi, Louisiana etc) are still getting educated in religious schools.

  2. Molesworth says:

    I’m looking at the list of CEOs who are consulting with President Obama about the fiscal cliff. It includes Jeffery Immelt. Isn’t that the guy who runs GE, the GE that filed taxes last year electronically, but if they had been printed out would have amount to 57,000, that when stacked would be 18 feet high and who after making profits of $13b, not only paid nothing, but got a tax credit?
    How is he gonna help? Fess up and give the real skinny or protect his shareholders and hold out for those giant LOOPHOLES?

  3. couragesd says:

    My theory on Quantitative analysis. The challenge with using only the numbers is that the probability is based on past performance and behavior. Just applying this principal there is plenty to move on and make money on. I call it cleaning the dinner plate before getting to the desert. The desert is discovering the unknown. That is, one can reverse engineer the expected outcome to determine what is ignored or neglected by the math, or what has been ignored by the past. This is where the gems live. It requires some analysis and understanding of history of performance. People forget about the negative space and are surprised when a universe is created out of nothing. Of course you can’t discover the negative space before determining the form of the visible space first. Most people don’t have the patience to finish drawing that form.

  4. romerjt says:

    Pundit shaming . . love it but I have a feeling the snake isn’t dead . . my hunch that within two weeks there will be some new math on the vote counts from the right-wing bubble that claims Romney actually won . I’m going to Google to see if this has already been done . . any bets?

  5. NoKidding says:


    I’ve thought a few times about a web startup that works like a zero-dollar InTrade. There are various arguments that take time to resolve, like the accuracy of election polls, the direction of the economy and the odds that a music band is the next big thing versus a one hit wonder.

    With InTrade you have to put down money, which often isn’t the point. e.g. if you were a big Obama fan and you went to InTrade to “bet your sentiment”, you won. But for most that was probably secondary to the satisfaction gotten from the actual win. Likewise Karl Rove accolytes were doomed to be crushed whether they lost their hundred bucks or not. And the latter sure were quiet following election day.

    I’d like to build a site/service that the kind of strangers who anonymously carp talking points at each other take up a proposition with an agreed upon strike event that triggers an artfully worded electronic reminder of what had ben said just a little while ago. Or sometimes said a long while ago.

    For instance in 2040, when I’ve hopefully moved on to other things than reading economy/science blogs while my SQL server is trapped in hourglass-mode, I might receive a little note that says “Hey a$$hole, CRUTEM anomoly just went over 1C. Next time try some math.” Likewise a lot of folks who thought Nickelback could write lyrics to more than one tune, soccer would make it big as a US pro sport, or democracy would flourish in Syria could be reminded that part of life is learning from mistakes. Much to the satisfaction of the person on the return receipt requested.

    Sort of a post-hoc version of eVite. Needs a snappy name. eTapemeasure? Still working on it.

  6. DeDude says:

    Read the second comment in that article on “Baseline Scenario” – comment-128563

    It just lays the history of our problems out nice and simple.

  7. VennData says:

    Peggy Noonan, Rolls out another howler:

    While I welcome GOP Media/Money Machine apostasy in all forms, Noonan was Reagan’s speech writer. She was on the team that designed and marketed this emotional state of the irrational, anti-science that the GOP genuflectors are in.

    She suggests the GOP avoid another nominee who looks at the “data,” How does she decide if something works or not without looking into the data? Her magic Reagan hat?

    Then she claims “Like a certain Massachusetts governor who preceded him, he staked his presidential claims on “competence.” But Americans want inspiration from their presidents….’ No Noonan, I want competence. I do not want another Bush. What is the President going to inspire me to do? Really? Seriously? Are we some kind of high school football team? Get the Reagan/Bush debt down, numerically. Inspire your little kids. I want competence. I want technocrats.

    Which crystal ball inspired her to make this claim about the future? “A Romney administration would also have been politically cautious and ideologically defensive in a way that rarely serves the party well.” Who believes this stuff? Based on what evidence? Romney’s health insurance plan in Massachusetts? That was cautious?

    She writes: “It doesn’t matter that Americans are generally eager to send Mr. Obama packing. All they need is to be reasonably sure that the alternative won’t be another fiasco. But they can’t be reasonably sure, so it’s going to be four more years of the disappointment you already know.” The facts are again quite different. Americans proved they didn’t want to send Obama packing last week.

    Then writing to her “fellow conservative” base, she says “it’s going to be four more years of the disappointment you already know”. What disappointment have the 1% crowd known over the last 4 years? The Dow doubling? Record corporate profits? Record individual earnings growth? Sign me up for 4 more years of that kind of “disappointment”.

    Does the WSJ ever fact-check this bimbo?

  8. A says:

    “How a vicious circle of self-interest sank a California city”

    This is indeed a sad state of affairs with America’s municipal personnel. Pure greed and an incredible lack of values. These people truly exist in an ethics-free world.

    Too often, politicians, civil servants and unions progress from taxpayer interest, to personal interest.
    With so much feeding from the public teat, they simply build a sense of entitlement, and progress into the stage of parasite.

    Nothing new, of course.