My afternoon train reads:

• U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020 (Bloomberg) see also U.S. to Be World’s Top Oil Producer in 5 Years, Report Says (NYT)
• Seriously, Apple Is Doomed (Daring Fireball)
• Banks should fear ominous new rulings in Fannie/Freddie MBS cases (Thomas Reuters)
• The Case Against a “Grand Bargain” (The New Yorker)
• European Central Bank Should Open Its Chamber of Secrets (Bloomberg)
• The driverless revolution rolls on (Fortune)
• Will This Election Settle Republicans’ Ayn Rand Debate? (Bloomberg)
• Management theory was hijacked in the 80s. We’re still suffering the fallout (The Guardian)
• An ancient civilization’s wet ascent, dry demise (Science News)
• Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst) in the 2012 Presidential Race (Five Thirty Eight)

What are you reading?

 

Why Are Stock Funds So Bad?

Source: WSJ

Category: Financial Press

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

20 Responses to “10 Monday PM Reads”

  1. VennData says:

    Conservatives, Don’t despair.

    America is not a society divided between “makers” and “takers.” Instead, almost all of us proceed through a life cycle where we sometimes make and sometimes take as we pass from schooling to employment to retirement.

    The line between “making” and “taking” is not a racial line. The biggest government program we have, Medicare, benefits a population that is 85% white.

    President Barack Obama was not re-elected by people who want to “take.” The president was re-elected by people who want to work — and who were convinced, rightly or wrongly, that the president’s policies were more likely to create work than were the policies advocated by my party.

    The United States did not vote for socialism. It could not do so, because neither party offers socialism. Both parties champion a free enterprise economy cushioned by a certain amount of social insurance. The Democrats (mostly) want more social insurance, the Republicans want less. National politics is a contest to move the line of scrimmage, in a game where there’s no such thing as a forward pass, only a straight charge ahead at the defensive line. To gain three yards is a big play.

    Whatever you think of the Obama record, it’s worth keeping in mind that by any measure, free enterprise has been winning the game for a long, long time to this point.

    Compare the United States of 2012 to the United States of 1962. Leave aside the obvious points about segregation and discrimination, and look only at the economy.

    In 1962, the government regulated the price and route of every airplane, every freight train, every truck and every merchant ship in the United States. The government regulated the price of natural gas. It regulated the interest on every checking account and the commission on every purchase or sale of stock. Owning a gold bar was a serious crime that could be prosecuted under the Trading with the Enemy Act. The top rate of income tax was 91%.

    http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/12/opinion/frum-conservatives-despair

  2. catman says:

    Re the oil article is that crude or equivalent including NG? If the projections jibe, the US and the Saudis will, as in days gone by, be holding hands for some time.

  3. rocketgas says:

    Steve jobs was a badass. I’m a microsoft guy but respect the power. Jobs is a man that takes no prioner and no bull shit. not sure what apple fan boys make of tim cook,

  4. willid3 says:

    US being the biggest oil producer …again?

    and maybe self sufficiency. or not

    but maybe we closer than before because we actually use a lot less than before?

    http://blog.chron.com/lorensteffy/2012/11/could-the-u-s-surpass-saudi-oil-production-in-a-decade/

    and what is driving our increased production isn’t very efficient. its costs a lot, so if oil were go down, you would expect that there would be less of it.
    but of course even we did become self sufficient for a few years, we would eventually be back where we were. only then there really would be less oil to start with.
    besides oil is a world market and it will go where the price is highest. just that XL pipeline will lead to higher US prices. just like a previous pipeline (in Alaska) was sold to us as lowering prices. only it didn’t all it really did was lead to exports of oil

  5. Jojo says:

    Businessweek
    The Brutal Arithmetic of the Budget Deficit
    November 08, 2012

    Right now, U.S. citizens are paying $2.4 trillion for their government. That’s what federal revenue added up to this year, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Some 46 percent of that total comes from individual income taxes, 35 percent from payroll taxes meant for Social Security and Medicare, 10 percent from corporate income taxes, and the last 9 percent from estate and gift taxes, excise taxes, and others.

    Now consider the $1.1 trillion which, also according to the CBO, the government will borrow by year’s end to make up the difference between revenue and expenditures. That’s the budget deficit, and if there was one thing the presidential candidates agreed on during the campaign, it was this: The deficit is unignorable. Mitt Romney said the gap needs to be closed entirely through spending cuts. Obama has maintained that increased revenue–i.e., increased taxes–must be part of the solution. Neither pronouncement sufficiently conveys how painful plugging the budget hole will be.

    Obama’s right when he says higher taxes are inevitable. Both of the big deficit reduction reports issued during his first term, from his own Simpson-Bowles commission as well as the Rivlin-Domenici task force, recommended a mix of tax hikes and spending cuts to close the gap. The problem is that raising the taxes Obama talked about on the campaign trail doesn’t get anywhere near closing the deficit.

    http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-11-08/the-brutal-arithmetic-of-the-budget-deficit

  6. Jojo says:

    A real-life example of unintended consequences (for the Republican side). :)
    ———–
    Businessweek
    Elizabeth Warren’s Inadvertent Best Friends: Wall Street and Republicans
    November 06, 2012

    The Massachusetts Senate race was close right up until the end, with three major polls showing Elizabeth Warren pulling ahead and two newspaper polls showing close to a tie. Now that Warren has defeated Republican Senator Scott Brown, who was once seen as an easy bet for reelection, it’s likely to trigger one of the strongest cases of political regret in recent memory.

    Congressional Republicans, Wall Street bankers, and business lobbyists now face the possibility that by driving Warren out of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), which she helped establish, and which they agitated to keep her from heading, they created a far bigger and more threatening animal: a hugely ambitious senator with national star power, command of financial affairs, and the stature to influence President Obama.

    http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-11-06/elizabeth-warrens-inadvertent-best-friends-wall-street-and-republicans

  7. rd says:

    The real test for Apple is 1 to 3 years away. Historically, Apple has produced a new, ground-breaking product, usually coupled with innovative user oriented software, on a 3 to 6 year cycle. In between, it is normally several incremental mods like we are seeing with the iPhone and iPad.

    Apple is “doomed” if there is no new major product announcement in the next 4 years. It has been 11 years since the introduction of the iPod. Since then we have only seen two new products, the iPhone and iPad in the ensuing 9 years after the iPod. They effectively had a drought of 17 years before that since the Mac came out and Steve Jobs left Apple. It is unrealistic to expect brand-new concepts every three years (iPhone to iPad) but they can’t go 17 years again in the fast-moving tech sector without something major. So can Apple pull a new excellently-executed concept out of the hat within a 6-year cycle period? That is the major test.

  8. VennData says:

    Petition for Texas secession hits White House response mark

    “…The petition does not explicitly cite President Obama’s reelection as a reason to secede, but claims the nation continues to suffer because of the “federal government’s neglect to reform domestic and foreign spending.”

    http://thehill.com/blogs/hillicon-valley/technology/267413-texas-secession-petition-gains-enough-signatures-for-white-house-response

    Well all those guys from Texas in the military will be surprised they don’t have Texas’s support.

    Oh well, the other forty nine can handle it.

  9. rd says:

    re Ayn Rand: I assume that Chris Christie’s embrace of Obama after Sandy was due to his knowledge of the role that Ayn Rand would play in a Republican Administration as he asked for Federal bail-out money for his state. According to Ayn Rand, government would have little or no role in any response or repair other than making sure the roads are ok. I am sure that the NJ citizens would be fine with that coming from a Republican governor and president.

    On Mayan drought: Please keep in mind that the US Rust Belt was developed because of a temperate climate with ready access to surface and ground water replenished regularly. It does not appear that the climate models view that as changing signfiicantly over the next century. Don’t be surprised if the Northeast and Central Mid-West rebounds economically over the coming decades as companies relocate to re-access the water supply. The South and Southwest are hardening their water demand by dramatically increasing their efficiency while growing their populations so that there will be less and less water use that can be cut in droughts without major impacts.

  10. willid3 says:

    not sure that we (Texas) are doing so well with water. we have had a drought off and on for the last 3-4 years. and we have grown so much that the reservoirs we built in the 1950′s aren’t cutting it any more. and we haven’t really done much about electricity. we are going to be on edge of rolling blackouts for some time to come. but we did that deregulation of electricity. and we now pay among the highest prices in the country. and will pay even more to see if we can convince power generators to build more plants (not really sure how thats suppose to work out. since they will get more money now. and building the billion dollar plants will reduce prices)

  11. gman says:

    When Rand wrote, in the 50s she may have had some merit. She wrote in an era of Stalin, Mao, some business nationalization in Nato nations and a 90 percent top tax rate existed in the US! The US has a 15 percent cap gains rate currently and the global economy is as free as it has been in a century.
    Rand has already been taken past her practical limit,

  12. willid3 says:

    more banking fraud?

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/11/michael-olenick-schadenfreude-alert-banks-paying-extortionate-fees-for-foreclosure-reviews.html

    now they pay fees to those who are suppose to be reviewing the loans. but in the past they were the ones creating documents out of thin air?
    what could go wrong?

  13. gman says:

    Venn, don’t forget things like presidents natioanizing whole industries during labor disputes!
    How can people be so unaware of the economic history of the recent past? Our golden era… and both our posts paint a picture that is much more socialist than anything even a radical would think of today.

  14. Al_Czervik says:

    @ gman and VennData

    Don’t forget these words uttered by one of history’s most notorious socialists:

    “Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. This is not a way of life at all in any true sense. Under the cloud of threatening war, it is humanity hanging from a cross of iron.”

    Dwight D. Eisenhower, From a speech before the American Society of Newspaper Editors, April 16, 1953

  15. Mike in Nola says:

    willid3:

    I have to pay the electric bill back in La. for disabled client for whom I’m trustee. Every time I do, I notice he’s paying a significantly lower rate under their regulated utility system than I am paying in Houston. And, as you say, our rates are going up despite the glut of low cost natural gas.

    The wonders of free market efficiency never cease to amaze.

  16. ilsm says:

    Hey, Texas!

    Bye bye.

    About those military and navy bases and war plants, the trucks and ships will roll in and take them north!

    You could fire on an empty Ft Sam Houston.

  17. rd says:

    Mike and willid3:

    Houston….houston….that rings a bell. Wasn’t there a well-known free-market, capitalist company based there in the 90s and early 2000s that was “assisting” California with the efficient re-allocation of electricity and other energy forms? Or were they just assisting California in re-allocating its wealth into their Houston-based pockets? I get confused about details like that. I believe all of that worked out spectacularly well for all concerned and is the poster child of the benefits of de-regulation.

  18. [...] Ritholtz Share this:TwitterFacebookLike this:LikeBe the first to like this. This entry was posted in [...]