My no electricity post blizzard afternoon reads:

• Debunking the 100% Recession Chart (A Dash of Insight)
• A Question of When, Not Cliff  (WSJ)
• Iran inflation soars to 24.9% (Times of Israel)
• No Margin for Error (derivatiViews)
• Justice Department’s best friend in mortgage cases: False Claims Act (thomsonreuters)
• What Successful People Do With The First Hour Of Their Work Day (Fast Company)
• What ought to pain Republicans most about Barack Obama’s victory is that 2012 was entirely winnable for them (FT.com) see also Obama’s second victory is more low key, but in some ways more impressive (Guardian)
• Reading the Fine Print in Abacus and Other Soured Deals (DealBook)
• What Apple dumping Intel could mean (MarketWatch)
• Election shows data illiteracy is a problem for journalists (Knight Digital Media Centersee also BuzzFeed’s First Election Night (AdWeek)

What are you reading?

 

Spending versus Taxing Gap

Source: WSJ

Category: Financial Press

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

23 Responses to “10 Thursday PM Reads”

  1. ellsworth says:

    Where’s Joe Friday? That chart sure makes it look like more of a spending problem to me.

    A couple dips that coincide/lag economic downturns (as one would expect), plus accelerating outlays. Sure, we might still have a deficit, but certainly not the size we have now.

    Resolving the deficit issue will take a painful combination of higher tax rates, lower spending, and a stronger economy.

  2. overanout says:

    the “fiscal cliff” is the latest D.C. hum job that is more noise then reality since the average american is going to get F*** by both political parties, the only unresolved issue is how to sell the deal to the masses as each party wants to share in the glory of the compromise but not take a responsibility for the final results.

  3. Roanman says:

    In my little town, illiteracy in general is a problem at our local paper. I wish I was kidding.

  4. Bridget says:

    Looks like we’d be just fine if we took spending back to 2008 levels.

  5. swag says:

    They were really that clueless? Glad they didn’t get into the White House.

    Adviser: Romney “shellshocked” by loss

    http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57547239/adviser-romney-shellshocked-by-loss/?pageNum=1&tag=page

  6. Futuredome says:

    Revenues should be hire Ellsworth. My advice is to go back further on revenues, they have not moved much since the end of the great Clinton era boom.

    But yes, the Republican powered surge after 9-11 is the base problem coupled with the financial crisis.

    Put it all together, not enough people paying taxes via financial crisis which the Republicans depleted the treasury before hand.

  7. Futuredome says:

    I mean higher, bleh lol

  8. 10x25mm says:

    Bloomberg tries to reconcile the old ‘we are entering a new Ice Age’ theme with the current Global Warming theme. From the land of the Nobel Prize:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-08/human-carbon-emissions-seen-by-researchers-holding-back-ice-age.html

    Enjoy….

  9. Iamthe50percent says:

    Does that spending include the massive bank bailouts? Are they expected to continue ad infinitum?

  10. drewburn says:

    Wow. Barry, thanks for the “Dash of Insight” post. Great site, great insight! Gotta love analytical rigor, ala Nate Silver. The truth will set you free!

  11. RW says:

    Keynes, Hobson, Marx -Robert Skidelsky

    …the Reagan-Thatcher solution to the problem of capitalism has recreated the Hobsonian problem of underconsumption. Since the 1980s, the rich, in western countries, have been able to appropriate the lion’s share of productivity growth. So future crises are inevitable.

    To avoid them we need to rebalance our economic life: away from consumption towards leisure, away from financialisation towards sustainability, …

  12. Wexler says:

    Not reading, but watching…Obama getting emotional with campaign staff…”I’m really proud of you all”…got it from Robert Wright’s twitter…pretty impressive.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBK2rfZt32g&feature=youtu.be

  13. The absence of financial sustainability may well buy time for a step towards physical sustainability. “Peak Materials” occurred in the early 2000′s, largely unheralded, as evidenced by commodity price rises.

  14. wally says:

    BR: you continue to put up a steady stream of interesting and informing stuff in spite of all the handicaps. Thanks for the effort and the excellent work.

  15. Lyle says:

    The dealbook article on the fine print shows that the financial advisors to the investors grossy failed to do their jobs, the warnings where in the long prospectus, but why did the investors pay so much money to the advisors but not to read the fine print. Of course as the article suggests it was a behavioral economics problem as everyone (financial advisors) was following the herd, for fear of underperfoming for the quarter and being fired. If that is the standard (quarterly results) one uses to select ones financial advisors then one gets what one pays for long term. The advisors and their firms should have summarized the risks listed and provided them to the investors, without comment as to the likelyhood.

  16. Mike in Nola says:

    The Apple/Intel stuff is really just blather, only making news because analysts are fixated the myth of how dominant Apple is in computers. Apple is actually small potatoes in the worldwide PC market which is the only reason it buys Intel chips. And it’s deemphasizing Mac’s anyway.

    No other PC makers are going to go to the expense and trouble of creating their own chips. It is way too expensive and specialized. Plus, they wouldn’t be able to run Windows software any more. Despite the dreams of fanbois, there are still well over a billion Windows PC users out there and a great many business users who are never gonna switch. Many are still using XP and just now migrating to Windows 7.

    The bigger danger for Intel is twofold and somewhat intertwined:
    1. The size of the conventional PC market will likely shrink as more people who don’t need a full fledged PC opt for a less powerful ARM machine running Android or IOS.
    2. Even those who stick with Windows may wind up with Windows RT which runs on ARM, e.g. the Surface or its cousins.

    Intel’s phone chips certainly haven’t caught on. But, it does have a PC chipset that may help it to compete in the low power tablet market if it really does perform as promised. That is the new Atom Clover Trail chipset. Why Intel used the Atom name again is a mystery because Atom netbooks were pretty crappy (although Windows 8 makes them actually usable). In any case it’s a low power chipset that will run all conventional Windows programs making it a lot more useful than IOS and Android tablets. It also supposedly gets very good battery life. Whether it is powerful enough and cheap enough to catch on is still an unknown, as very few products using it have been released.

    I did find this very preliminary reviews of the new Samsung ATIV Smart PC 500T tablet using the new chipset. It looks like it performed pretty well in the preliminary tests and with the Samsung behemoth marketing it, it could catch on.
    http://hothardware.com/Reviews/Intel-Clovertrail-Atom-Z2760-Windows-8-Tablet-Performance-Preview/

    The Samsung tablet is got pretty good reviews for the few people who were able to buy it from Amazon.
    http://www.amazon.com/Samsung-ATIV-Smart-500T-Tablet/dp/B009LL9U50/ref=cm_cr_pr_product_top

  17. [...] Further, further reading. This entry was posted by Lisa Pollack on Friday November 9th, 2012 [...]

  18. rootless says:

    ellsworth, you wrote:

    … That chart sure makes it look like more of a spending problem to me.

    Why is that? What can be really seen from the graph? The divergence between government outlays and spending during the Great Recession can be seen, outlays have about stabilized after, but revenues haven’t even fully recovered back to the peak value that was reached in the cycle before the Great Recession. However, your conclusion from the graph according to which the spending was the problem can’t be seen from the graph. It is something you read into the graph. The causality is only something you interpret into the graph, likely according to your preconceived views about what the causality is.

    A couple dips that coincide/lag economic downturns (as one would expect), plus accelerating outlays. Sure, we might still have a deficit, but certainly not the size we have now.

    We might still have a deficit in what case? You don’t say here what the alternative case would be about which you are talking, and how both curves would look like in this case and why. You assert the conclusion by jumping to it. The audience can only guess what you are talking about.

    Resolving the deficit issue will take a painful combination of higher tax rates, lower spending, and a stronger economy.

    And I want weather in NYC, but without any rain ever. Believing you can have all of what you list at the same time under the current conditions sounds like wishful thinking to me. At least lower spending and stronger economy contradict each other under the current conditions of weak private aggregate demand. Austerity will lead to economic contraction, but not to economic expansion. Some even say the US economy has already been in a new recession, only that most haven’t realized it yet. In this case, austerity would make the economy contracting even more. I also question the notion that “the deficit” is really the issue here that should have priority to be solved.

  19. romerjt says:

    I love irony so here’s some that’s bringing a smile to my face this am. First, the Reps are complaining about Obama going negative on Romney with the Bain Capital, little rich boy stuff. That, itself is ironic (think 24/7 Fox news). Then Newt and the other Rep wannabees pick up on it and hammer Mitt in the debates. And then, Mitt confirms the image with his 47% remarks. Brilliant!

    And this, Fox News has its dream-team of candidates, Rick Perry, Newt, Michele, Santorum, and Herman, “what is Libya” Cane – and at one point he’s actually leading in their polls, but they all lose and the Rep have to nominate Mitt who has to deny and run against his single great political achievement, health care in MA. Amazing!

    ~~~

    BR: The Daily Show ran something similar

  20. Greg0658 says:

    root I was reading thru that 7:32a as a Jersey Congressman was on CNBC talking about rebuilding after the storm .. subjects like setbacks, stilts, bury lines, sandbanks and
    the 25% 75% FEMA ratio of help to local/state govs .. requesting(floating) 100% fed funds

    your discussion up there with ells – helped me mold this post .. I was wondering in the aircast where the return to statusquo would be in that ratio – do no harm to locals/state and the USA generally

    how can the outsiders benefit from a storm such as this – one way would be hire more folks from the taxing & insurance bodies that will put up the cash .. another way is the products purchased/built from the taxing & insurance bodies that will put up the cash .. to get the east coast back on its feet – so the shows and shops can sell to us again

    I really think there is an App in that thought up there – but I missed that train .. BR shows so many examples of software/spreadsheet/database Apps that exist for show .. not sure how they can be implemented to let the machines take over .. here comes the the SuperFedMachine :-)
    awuh – more unemployment :-|

  21. Greg0658 says:

    ps – just curious – don’t know – don’t know how to find out – when power companies & firemen send help to disaster sites such as this Sandyzone .. they do send a bill to the entity ? like any red blooded american capitalist would – right ?

  22. VennData says:

    Chrysler recalls about 745,000 Jeeps for airbag issue

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/09/us-jeep-usrecall-idUSBRE8A80TO20121109

    Cheap Chinese junk!

    – Jack Welch