Click to enlarge

 

Home prices, according to the S&P/Case Shiller report, rose 0.4% sequentially (seasonally adjusted) in September and 3% year over year.

The index is now up for an 6th straight month, putting it at the highest level since Oct ’10 while still remaining 31% below its ’06 highs.

Jonathan Miller notes the declining momentum in Home sales: Falling mortgage rates are not creating housing sales. He blames credit remaining very tight. On a year over year basis, 18 of the 20 cities surveyed saw gains. Only Chicago and New York saw declines. Miller observes that year-over-year comparisons in various national reports are “skewed higher from an anemic 2011.Housing Pulse confirms this, observing further that 1st-time home buyers are not seeing any gains from the so-called recovery.

The bottom line is that housing has stabilized — but done so in a rate driven artificial manner — at least for now.

 

More Case Shiller Charts after the jump

 

 

 

Source:
Home Prices Rise for the Sixth Straight Month According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Dave Guarino and David Blitzer
S&P Dow 500, November 27, 2012

Category: Credit, Real Estate

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

12 Responses to “Case-Shiller Home Price Rise for 6th Month”

  1. isolde100 says:

    It’s funny that Professor Shiller is very pessimistic about the housing market. I guess he doesn’t believe his own index.

  2. [...] Housing prices were on the rise in the summer according to Case-Shiller.  (Calculated Risk, Big Picture) [...]

  3. techy says:

    ***He blames credit remaining very tight***

    Really?? He wants those NINJA loans back?

    How about “Not enough well paying jobs” so that people can afford to buy a house

  4. Petey Wheatstraw says:

    Buy now, or be priced out forever.

  5. wally says:

    “but done so in a rate driven artificial manner”

    Artificial, huh? Sounds positively unnatural when you put it like that… but then, that’s what you are trying to do, right? Heaven forbid somebody might get a loan at a low rate… it jest ain’t natural.

    ~~~

    BR: Dude, you need to distinguish between ease of credit availability and cost of credit. 0% is not a remotely normal rate.

  6. 4whatitsworth says:

    As housing goes so will go the economy. Housing is probably the only bright spot in an otherwise bleak outlook.

    The question is if zero percent interest does not drive the market then what will?

    ~~~

    BR: Time . . . (Deleveraging, Household formation, population growth)

  7. Joe Friday says:

    Miller observes that year-over-year comparisons in various national reports are ‘skewed higher from an anemic 2011‘.

    No kidding.

    To quote the lyrics of the legendary Marvin Gaye, “Compared to what ?”.

  8. BuildingCom says:

    Yet , even with massive government price support of housing, housing demand is still at 16 year lows and falling.

    Worse yet, prices resumed their decline in October.

  9. foss says:

    BR, you ate one of the absolute best financial bloggers on the web.
    That said, there is a strong whiff of confirmation bias wrt how you are viewing all housing data of late.
    Bill at CR has the story right.
    A raging bull market in reel estate – no – but invoking ‘artificial ‘ issues like ZIRP, QE etc is not your usual style.
    The nominal home price bottom is in for this cycle. Probably flat real prices for 5-10 years.
    Does fed policy and gov policy play a role? Of course. And it always has.
    It’s ok to be wrong on your housing call, most people after wrong most of the time, and you sir do not fit into that category. Though I do :)

  10. louis says:

    Nice Petey, and the helocs are knocking on those new doors. I still think Ferguson is right that we need write down and 3% loans. For all you new home owers I implore you to pay it down and run like hell from anyone wanting to give you an extra checkbook. I still can’t believe that what leads us out of this will be what put us here , I call bullshit on all the housing calls until you go back and get the dead bodies.

  11. Techy: LOL obviously don’t want “ninja” loans back – credit has over corrected. Try reading the actual content of the post and links, it might cut down your need for double punctuation and all caps.

    Foss: go easy on Barry. Yes Bill is a great blogger and and Joe weisenthal’s interview with him was terrific and well deserved. I’ve debated with him on his bottom call. Its the wrong word. The only reason prices are rising is because tight credit has pressed listings lower and the robo signing scandal and aftermath pulled back a lot of distressed from flowing into the market, thereby skewing prices higher. Less distressed and existing inventory has helped new dev improve as well.

    Are incomes rising? is employment showing strong gains ? No, it’s record low rates driving everything and that, for lack of a better word, is artificial, not fundamental.

  12. BuildingCom says:

    Housing prices resumed their decline in October.