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Will today be the day the bounce attempt actually works? So far, we have seen nothing but failed rally attempts for 2 weeks.

Stocks are now at a 3 month low.

Be back soon . . .

 

UPDATE 8:47AM: Futures fading, up between .25% and .45% across indices

Category: Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

9 Responses to “Get Ready for the Bounce Attempt”

  1. 4whatitsworth says:

    No bounce until we get some clarity on this mess.

    http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/breakdown_2012USpt_13ps5n

    Oh and 40 billion from raising taxes on the top 2% is not going to do it.
    http://www.american.com/graphics/2007/november/Guess%20Who%20Really%20Pays%20the%20Taxes.jpg

    If we get an announcement that tax policy is going to change and entitlements will be addressed we have chance to bounce.

    ~~~

    BR: I believe you have a fundamental misunderstanding of what drives the markets

  2. 4whatitsworth says:

    BR, maybe I read your blog because I think you know quite a bit more than I do.

    This said I think confidence matters and no serious person is going to make a big bet until there is clarity on the current political situation (Government spending vs taxes). Lets see what happens after Obama’s speech.

    The great thing about markets is that we can all take different sides and it is more than just talk.

    My $.02

  3. dina says:

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/49802535

    “The market is going down because corporate profits will begin to disappoint, the global economy will hardly grow next year or even contract, and that is the reason why stocks, from the highs of September of 1,470 on the S&P, will drop at least 20 percent, in my view.”

  4. dina says:

    BR,
    what drives corporate profits?

    ~~~

    BR: Corporate profits are driven by a combination of really inane oversimplified questions and blog trolls

  5. 4whatitsworth says:

    @dina, agree profit forecasts are going down (less than the market is going down) and profits drive the market. My point is that the valuation of the PE ratio often used to determine the bid and ask are driven by emotional factors the magnitude of these emotional factors are function of uncertainty.

    Regarding the international economy in the old days we used to say that when the U.S. sneezed the rest of the world caught a cold. Now it seems like there is a perception that when the world sneezes it causes a hurricane U.S.

    Anyway watching the market continue to slide and like everyone that has a bet on the table wondering what will inspire a bid. As the late P.T> Barnum says “There’s a sucker born every minute”

  6. 4whatitsworth says:

    Well, I just listened to the Obama speech and sold 80% of my long term capital gains positions. Not sure how many people like me are out there or if we move markets. The good news is that there is more certainty now and in my view cap gains tax rates are going up 8.8% next year (80% chance).

    BR, please don’t see this posts as in your face I am just giving you and your readers my perspective as a business person and investor. Your blog is great and in my view you can take the information that you post to the bank. I still have large positions in tax deferred accounts so yeah I want the bounce to but I just don’t see a floor yet.

    ~~~

    BR: 1) I didnt vote for him, I voted Libertarian this year (Still too angry about Summers/Geithner to pull the lever for BHO again)

    2) Big Real Estate Sales and equity sales in advance of a rising capital gains should be expected

  7. ZedLoch says:

    Getting hammered atm, but I guess it’s good to get it out of the system now. If 4whatitsworth is onto a trend and this is all the selloff can muster, then not a huge deal. And that money’s got show up again somewhere, unless I’m just too optimistic.

  8. 4whatitsworth says:

    BR,

    1) I voted for Obama the first time around. I liked what he had to say and thought we needed a change. This time my view was that he made a mess of the opportunity and just blamed others so we needed another change. The interesting thing is that I did well under Obama so I probably voted against my self interest. Like most Americans I just want the right thing for our country.

    2) Yeah bring on the real estate sales that is exactly what I am thinking and I am going to need a new depreciation strategy!

    3) Keep up the great work! I loved the what is the Fiscal cliff post.

    4) Can I get a spell and grammar check on this stuff :-)

  9. DiggidyDan says:

    I voted for Mr. Johnson as well. . . wait are we talking about politics or the market?

    Funny thing is, Bloomberg had an article saying it was ’cause Israel blew up Hamas. . . Reality. . . the market is the market, and like BR always says, tying market action to one headline “explanation” for why it crashed one day is ludicrous. It’s a complex system with many inputs. I expect that capital gains tax considerations, fiscal cliff, slowing earnings, Europe mess, and escalating tension in the middle east (could drive oil hire as a consequence and scuttle the fed’s plans) are all factors. I’m looking for that DCB and think it will result in a “lower high” than 1466. . . which would look pretty bearish to me. I moved all of my 401k a while back to the PIMCO bond fund when my sentiment indicator maxed in the face of declining earnings and low volatility. . . naïve cognitive disconnect there and definitely not a good sign. and BR confirmed my perspective with his recent call of lightening up on equities and looking for a possible cyclical bear cycle.

    Hope the S&P gets down to the 1100′s to look for some bargains in dividend stocks again, but we’ll see what happens. Point is, it’s not just one mess driving the decline, it’s a combination, and it seemed due.