Review of my personal market diary over the past few months: 1)The Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ and SNB will continue to print huge amounts of money, CHECK. 2)Earnings growth globally is slowing with GDP and we’ve seen the peak in profit margins, CHECK. 3)Election is over, DC doesn’t change, taxes are going up at exactly the wrong time, CHECK. An entry today: 1)stop saying “Uncertainty” as the only thing that is certain is uncertainty. 2)stop saying “fiscal cliff” as until market based solutions come to medicare, medicaid and social security, the can will get kicked all over the place and well passed any supposed ‘deal’ in the next two months. 3)Oh yeah, stop saying “kicking the can down the road.” Bottom line, the stock market correction is not over, earnings will continue to slow, higher taxes of any kind in 2013 will bring a US recession, central banks will print more money (but can’t prevent a cyclical bear market after the near 3 yr bull run) and 2013 will be the most challenging both economically and from a market perspective that we’ve seen in a few yrs. Stagflation here we come is my call. Buy the flation and sell the stag.

Category: MacroNotes

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

5 Responses to “My market diary”

  1. Pantmaker says:

    Really really good stuff…my personal feeling is the flation part is coming in the back half of this decade…everything else is spot on.

  2. Greg0658 says:

    take the strikes in Greece aand overlay that with your list and .. isn’t this the way promises get reality priced to the base labor contract .. ie rent collecting is over-used .. so get over it – hey money is free to build a business – oh right – we don’t need no more stinkin business – we just need consumers

  3. Vitus Capital says:

    “stop saying ‘fiscal cliff’ as until market based solutions come to medicare, medicaid and social security, the can will get kicked all over the place and well passed any supposed ‘deal’ in the next two months. ”

    Market-based solutions for Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security? Sigh. I, of course, think this is, to channel Bill Gates, the dumbest idea I ever heard of. (except for the last time I heard it.)

    But I sincerely would ask: Given how bloated and spectacularly ineffective the current “market-based” health insurance industry is, why do you think we should put these currently ok-run programs into the pvt. sector?

    Oh. The deficit. You should read DeLong, et. al. on this stuff. Paul Ryan not much of a guide.

  4. Giovanni says:

    OK let’s stop calling it ‘Obama Care’ and go back to calling it what it really is: Romney Care. Like it or not it was invented by the former governor.

  5. irondoor says:

    Romney and Bush = History. Harry Reid = Dems have the power.

    Get over it. Who gives a flying _____ who the idiots were (and there’s always plenty of expert “consultants” around to lend a hand at $1,000/hr) that originated _____Care.

    Operate, set your strategy, run your money and adjust your fears in the NOW.