Succinct summation of week’s events:

Positives

1) Greece is bought more time, again. Public sector debt writedown still looms.
2) Catalonia, Spain vote adds enough confusion that secession not happening anytime soon.
3) Spanish bond yields fall to one month low, Italian yields at 2 yr lows.
4) EU CPI moderates to 2.2% from 2.5%, lowest since Dec ’10.
5) US Durable Goods orders better than expected after recent weakness.
6) S&P/CS home price index up for 8th straight month to highest since Oct ’10.
7) MBA said purchase apps rose 2.6%, up for 3rd week to most since June.
8) Oct Pending Home Sales rise 5.2% m/o/m vs est of up 1%.
9) Conference Board Consumer Confidence at 73.7, up slightly from Oct to best since Feb ’08 as labor market answers are positive.
10) Q3 GDP revised to up 2.7% from initial print of 2% but mostly due to inventory build.
11) Richmond and Chicago mfr’g PMI’s back into expansion (though Chicago New Orders fall 5.3 pts) .
12) Japan’s IP in Oct unexpectedly jumps by 1.8% helped out by smartphone component production. Also, further yen weakness leads to highest Nikkei close since late April.

Negatives

1) Republicans give in to more revenue that will cover an extra 8 days of spending. Democrats want enough to pay for 16 days but no discussion of spending cuts (I mean slowing the rate of spending).
2) Likely Fed planted QE4 piece, they still think it works.
3) Refi apps fall 1.5%, down for 7th week in past 8.
4) Initial Claims total 393k, 3k more than expected and prior week revised up by 6k to 416k. Hurricane likely still an influence as are holiday seasonals. 5) Oct Income and Spending light but 24 states have hurricane impact and thus clouds data. Income alone hit by estimated $18b annualized.
6) Dallas, KC, and Milwaukee regions all say mfr’g is contracting.
7) Q3 GDP sees personal spending revised to gain of just 1.4%, the slowest since Q2 ’11. Equipment and software spending goes negative.
8) Oct New Home Sales at 368k, 22k less than expected in small part due to hurricane but Sept revised lower by 20k.
9) German retail sales in Oct fall 2.8% m/o/m vs est of down .4%.
10) Euro zone unemployment rate ticks up to new high at 11.7%.
11) German and Italian consumer confidence fall.
12) Japan’s PMI 46.5 v 46.9 in Oct, below 50 for 6th straight month.
13) Hong Kong exports in Oct unexpectedly fall and imports grow less than expected.

Category: Financial Press

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

6 Responses to “Succinct summation of week’s events (11.30.12)”

  1. Christopher says:

    Well at least those overachieving Hostess execs will have a MERRY XMAS!!

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/judge-oks-bonuses-execs-hostess-225900621.html

    Proper “business judgement” and all….

  2. VennData says:

    To say “…but no discussion of spending cuts…” is simply snarky nonsense.

  3. With this week’s economic data releases, the Debt Wall model continues to project the Treasury Dept’s ability to float new bonds will be handcuffed by its $16.4 Debt Limit on Dec 11th. CBO says Treasury Dept can engage in about ten weeks of creative bookkeeping before shuttering measures are necessitated.

    The TRI model gauges Q4 GDP is on a 1.5% pace in Canada, 8.9% in China & 1.1% in the USA. TRI’s measure of animal-spirits-plus which had been indicating a very robust 2013Q2 (based on a Romney victory) is rapidly deteriorating.

    the charts: http://trendlines.ca/free/economics

  4. slowkarma says:

    With all the talk of which party may be right or wrong, or who is obstructing what, or whose fault it all is, the most worrisome thing is summarized in your #1 Negative — nobody, in fact, is proposing any kind of realistic solution for the biggest of our problems. The financial system is broken and we’re going to the wall over eight days of revenue?

    Nor do I think silly proposals like a wealth tax would fix the problem.

    One possibility that might actually fix the problem would be a Constitutional Amendment that would outlaw a VAT tax EXCEPT for a 16 or 20-year period in which the tax would be levied to fund only past entitlement commitments — in other words, to clear the entitlement problem, which should ease when the boomers finally die out. The reason I’d do it like this would be to attract necessary red-state approval (we need a VAT for a short time to get our house in order and then it’ll be outlawed forever.) Red-staters and Republicans are also more likely to go for a somewhat less visible flat tax, and Democrats, of course, are pining for a VAT. The good thing about a VAT is, it might actually solve the problem. The bad part is, it whacks the people who can’t control spending (that is, the poor — people who need to spend everything they earn) the hardest.

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