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Succinct summation of week’s events (11.30.12)

Posted By Peter Boockvar On November 30, 2012 @ 3:30 pm In Financial Press | Comments Disabled

Succinct summation of week’s events:

Positives

1) Greece is bought more time, again. Public sector debt writedown still looms.
2) Catalonia, Spain vote adds enough confusion that secession not happening anytime soon.
3) Spanish bond yields fall to one month low, Italian yields at 2 yr lows.
4) EU CPI moderates to 2.2% from 2.5%, lowest since Dec ’10.
5) US Durable Goods orders better than expected after recent weakness.
6) S&P/CS home price index up for 8th straight month to highest since Oct ’10.
7) MBA said purchase apps rose 2.6%, up for 3rd week to most since June.
8) Oct Pending Home Sales rise 5.2% m/o/m vs est of up 1%.
9) Conference Board Consumer Confidence at 73.7, up slightly from Oct to best since Feb ’08 as labor market answers are positive.
10) Q3 GDP revised to up 2.7% from initial print of 2% but mostly due to inventory build.
11) Richmond and Chicago mfr’g PMI’s back into expansion (though Chicago New Orders fall 5.3 pts) .
12) Japan’s IP in Oct unexpectedly jumps by 1.8% helped out by smartphone component production. Also, further yen weakness leads to highest Nikkei close since late April.

Negatives

1) Republicans give in to more revenue that will cover an extra 8 days of spending. Democrats want enough to pay for 16 days but no discussion of spending cuts (I mean slowing the rate of spending).
2) Likely Fed planted QE4 piece, they still think it works.
3) Refi apps fall 1.5%, down for 7th week in past 8.
4) Initial Claims total 393k, 3k more than expected and prior week revised up by 6k to 416k. Hurricane likely still an influence as are holiday seasonals. 5) Oct Income and Spending light but 24 states have hurricane impact and thus clouds data. Income alone hit by estimated $18b annualized.
6) Dallas, KC, and Milwaukee regions all say mfr’g is contracting.
7) Q3 GDP sees personal spending revised to gain of just 1.4%, the slowest since Q2 ’11. Equipment and software spending goes negative.
8) Oct New Home Sales at 368k, 22k less than expected in small part due to hurricane but Sept revised lower by 20k.
9) German retail sales in Oct fall 2.8% m/o/m vs est of down .4%.
10) Euro zone unemployment rate ticks up to new high at 11.7%.
11) German and Italian consumer confidence fall.
12) Japan’s PMI 46.5 v 46.9 in Oct, below 50 for 6th straight month.
13) Hong Kong exports in Oct unexpectedly fall and imports grow less than expected.


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