Succinct summation of week’s events:


1) Oct Payrolls increase a net 171k (est 125k), 184k (est 123k) of which in the private sector which is the most since Feb helped by an unexpected increase in mfr’g hiring.
2) ISM mfr’g increases to 51.7 from 51.5 and touch above est of 51.0 with this caveat, there is “continued concern over a fragile global economy and soft orders across several mfr’g sectors.”
3) Initial Claims fall to 363k from 372k.
4) Q3 Productivity up 1.9% vs est of 1.8%, unit labor costs unexpectedly fall by .1% (keep margins elevated) .
5) While slightly less than expected, Oct consumer confidence 72.2 up from 68.4 in Sept, best since Feb ’08 as answers to labor market questions improve and those that plan a vacation at 25 yr high!
6) CS home price index rises to highest since Nov ’10.
7) Oct retail comps better than expected.
8) Mfr’g PMI’s increase in China, Taiwan, South Korea and India from prior month.
9) If you like QE, BoJ brings another 11T yen.
10) India cuts RR to help economy.


1) A disaster storm that wrecks havoc on lives and property.
2) Oct unemployment rate ticks up to 7.9% as increase in labor force offsets rise in household survey. Avg hours worked unch at 34.4 vs est 34.5. Avg hourly earnings unch m/o/m vs est of up .2% and up just 1.6% y/o/y, below CPI of 2.0%.
3) MBA said refi’s fell 6% to 8 week low and purchases up just .5% after 8.3% drop last week notwithstanding the Fed’s best efforts.
4) Vehicle sales in Oct total 14.22mm vs est 14.9mm.
5) Savings rate falls to 3.3% from 3.7%, lowest since Nov ’11 as REAL income is flat.
6) German unemployment rises more than expected.
7) Final euro zone mfr’g PMI 45.4 v 46.1 in Sept, 15th month below 50.
8) UK consumer confidence at 6 mo low and mfr’g PMI falls to 47.5.
9) Euro zone Economic Confidence at lowest since July ’09.
10) Canada adds just 1.8k jobs vs est of 10k.

Category: Markets

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7 Responses to “Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (11/2/12)”

  1. With this week’s economic data releases, TRI gauges GDP troughed @ 0.2% in August and ran at a 1.1% pace in October … in line with the Q4 rebound that’s been projected since late June. TRI’s measure of animal-spirits-plus continues to reveal high prospects for 2013Q2 … probably associated with anticipation by many consumers & corporations of a Republican win on Nov 6th. On that note, since mid-October my Race-for-the-White-House model has been projecting either a clear ECV win or at least a 269-269 tie which in the reality of a Republican House of Representatives majority would give Romney the victory.

    If Romney wins, November will see a new S&P500 record. Either way, the current trend of revenue misses and slashed guidance should turn to more positive outlooks. Draft legislation is being readied for the Nov13 – Dec14 lame-duck session by the Senate’s gang-of-8 to address fiscal cliff and Debt Limit issues. Obama has already warned it could face his veto. My Debt Wall model continues to project the date Congress will be handcuffed by its $16.4 trillion Debt Limit is Jan 7 2013.

    General job creation is finally exceeding the 99k/month required to offset the monthly rise of the labour force via graduation and immigration, but the glide path toward 6.9% UR sucks. This is the threshold where FOMC will commence to normalize its discount rates, but it could be as far away as 2018Q1.

    After a 2011 trough, Existing Homes are today selling $16k above this season last year. After a 2009 trough, New Home prices are $21k above last Summer. Both have returned to within a mere 2% of their long-term Price/Family-Income trend lines. The 2007 New Home record annual price should be surpassed in 2014.

    the charts:

  2. Futuredome says:

    I am surprised nobody is talking about the shrinking FOMC balance sheet. confirms my suspicions: they want a Romney Presidency.

    Romney gets in, they up the bond buying purchases, Republican “opposition” to the FED ends as they attempt to gut the social order.

  3. VennData says:

    Hutter says, “…The 2007 New Home record annual price should be surpassed in 2014…”

    I bet no. Call me crazy.

  4. [...] *Conventional Super-Conforming cap = $625,500. FHA Super-Conforming cap = $729,750. ___ Reference: – Succinct Summation Of Week’s Events (TheBigPicture) [...]

  5. SecondLook says:

    a 269-269 tie which in the reality of a Republican House of Representatives majority would give Romney the victory.

    To clarify, in the very unlikely event of an electoral college tie, the House votes by states delegations, not by individual members; i.e. one vote for each state delegation. Since the Republicans control about 28-29 delegations, it would be assumed that Rommey would be elected.
    However, the Vice-President is separately elected by the Senate. It’s quite possible that if the Democrats retain control of the upper chamber, then we could have the political mess of having a Republican President, and a Democratic Vice-President (Biden).

    I doubt either circumstance will occur: A tie is a low probability event, and the majority of electors are not bound by state law or stature pledge to vote according the their state results. While in the past only one or two electors cross voted, given a tie, one or more might very well do so.
    As for the Vice-Presidency: It would be extremely tempting for either party to stick the President with a Vice-President from the other party, in reality, I suspect that the Senate would defer to the popular vote (although that does offer an opening to mischief – say, Rommey/Ryan wins, but Obama/Biden gets a small but definitive majority of the popular vote – I could see a Democratic controlled Senate going with Biden on the grounds he got more votes than Ryan; or vice versa).

  6. txshad0 says:

    Not enough blue states, or hope and change believers to overcome pathetic results and leadership. Romney takes the hope vote, nothing changes but the narrative to fit the story told by media – who need their paychecks too.

    If Romney wins, it will be entertaining to watch the thrashing, blame, and hysterics of a media establishment which so soundly constructed the certainty of an Obama reelection. Riots would be an indication your constituency is not aligned with interests of one society, but rather divided by pandering and manipulation – our American voter passion play.