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Until an agreement, it’s headline watching time again

Posted By Peter Boockvar On November 12, 2012 @ 10:00 am In MacroNotes,Think Tank | Comments Disabled

As we’ve been all well trained (and annoyed) with the art of politician newswire headline watching throughout Europe over the past few years as they grappled with Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, etc…hopefully we’ll be ready for the barrage of US political sound bytes and opinions on how to come to an agreement between Dems and Repubs. It may very well be the sole driver of stock performance into yr end with the economic consequences of such a deal being a focus only beginning in 2013. Overseas, add the 3rd largest economy in the world, Japan, to the list of countries that saw a contraction in growth in Q3. GDP fell 3.5% annualized, a touch more than the estimate of a drop of 3.4%. It was led by a sharp drop in capital investment but domestic spending was not surprisingly down too. In China, new yuan loan growth in Oct totaled 505b, 85b less than expected, down from 623b in Sept and the slowest pace of gain since Sept ’11. M2 grew 14.1% and that also was less than the expected growth rate of 14.5%. Chinese Exports rose 11.6% y/o/y in Oct, above the forecast of 10% and was led by a 9% increase to the US. Exports though to Europe, China’s largest trading partner, fell by 8.1% y/o/y, the 5th month in a row of declines. Chinese imports rose 2.4%, but below the estimate of 3.4%. Imports typically lead export growth in China. In India, industrial production unexpectedly fell .4% y/o/y vs the estimate of up 2.8%.


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