Matt Trivvisanno gives us the early look at tomorrow’s NFP data via withholding data:

“Over the past three weeks, the year-over-year growth rate of federal withholding-tax collections was a respectable 4.72%. Using a longer period for comparison on the chart:


Source: Daily Jobs Update

You can see that the surge that we saw in August and September has ended (look at the red line). However, the data has not gone into decline, so there does not appear to be any cause for alarm. Perhaps retailers are not staffing-up quite as much for the holiday shopping season this year. Maybe they are expecting to take share. In any case, things look steady and there should not be any nasty surprises in Friday’s non-farm payrolls report.


Source: Daily Jobs Update

Category: Economy, Employment, Taxes and Policy

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

2 Responses to “Withholding-Tax Collections Steady in October”

  1. AuroraSpeedster says:

    1. The new report will increase the number of industries that report their payroll numbers each month from 3 to five. This will now include construction, financial activities, manufacturing, professional and business services, trade, transport and utilities. These five industries constitute 50% of all US non-farm private sector employment.
    2. The sample size used to create the report has increased from 344,000 companies to 406,000 and from 21 million employees to 23 million employees – which are 20% of the private sector non-farm workforce.
    3. It will also draw on revised historical payroll data collected by the BLS, and the business conditions sub-index of the monthly Philly Fed report, which has a close relationship with official payrolls data and takes account of initial jobless claims.

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  2. VennData says:


    Romney, Ryan and I are on a committee to consolidate Thanksgiving and Christmas – President’s Day-like – and actually do it on a weekend, thereby getting four more days of production out of the economy. That’s how will grow our way out of this mess Obama made with his tax hikes… Inspired by Christie’s Halloween switch, which believe me, I know, I talk to him, that’s the only switch he’s made. Don’t believe the press on this “Christie likes Obama” crap.

    – Jack Welch

    UPDATE FROM BOCA RATON: Thinking of doing Christmas Eve on the night of Christmas Day, that Saturday… and the NFL owners have worked out a compromise among themselves to switch T-Day to Sunday seeing as how the NFL Network rankles so many. It’s called bi-partisanship. “Black Friday,” that’s out, along with the one in the WHITE House.

    — Jack Welch