My afternoon train reads:

• Should You Secular Market Time? (Yes, based on Valuations) (Rick Ferri)
• If Investors Are Dumping Stocks, Why Are ETFs So Hot? (The Fiscal Times) see also US stock market rally deserves respect (FT Alphaville)
• The VIX – Is It Telling Us Anything? At All? (Pragmatic Capitalism)
• Scaring Retail Investors? Mission Accomplished (The Reformed Broker) see also For Many Financial Advisers, Stocks Become a Hard Sell (WSJ)
• Republicans have surrendered on fiscal cliff (MarketWatch)
• TODAY IN APPLE NEWS: Apple’s Big Manufacturing Boom to the U.S.—200 Jobs (The Fiscal Times) see also Apple Not Seen Paying
• A Warning About That Guy Who Is Beating the Market (Bucks)
• Hostess took workers’ pension money to fund itself (Daily Kos) see also Hostess Maneuver Deprived Pension (Yahoo Finance)
• How to Control an Army of Zombies (NYT)
• The Case for Drinking as Much Coffee as You Like (The Atlantic)

What are you reading?

 

Precarious predictions

Source: The Economist

Category: Financial Press

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

7 Responses to “10 Tuesday PM Reads”

  1. thomas hudson says:

    QOTD: good quote, but it wasn’t Einstein, according to his Wikiquote site:

    Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius—and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction.
    Actually written by E. F. Schumacher in a 1973 essay titled “Small is Beautiful” which appeared in The Radical Humanist: volume 37, p. 22. Earliest published source found on google books attributing this to Einstein is BMJ: The British Medical Journal, volume 319, 23 October 1999, p. 1102. It was attributed to Einstein on the internet somewhat before that, for example in this 1997 post.

    Einstein also never said ‘the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result’. It is from a book on narcotic addiction from 1981.

    Real Clear Politics just did an analyis of a quote fest by Huffington post celebrating Mark Twain’s birthday. 16 of the 27 have no history of ever being said by the man.
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/12/10/fake_twain_quotes_and_other_hazards_of_twitter_116376.html

  2. willid3 says:

    beginning of the criminal prosecutions on libor fraud?

    http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/12/11/three-arrested-in-connection-to-rate-rigging-scandal/

    fixing the budget deficit…but not really by controlling Medicare?
    Among the many conventional wisdom fixes in the latest reports on the fiscal cliff negotiations: raising the eligibility age for Medicare.

    Combine the costs of Medicare with Medicaid expenses for the poor and, as one professor said, you’ve got “pretty much the entire ball game” of US debt. “Government spending on medical expenditures outstripped revenues by $775 billion, which represents 58% of the 2011 Federal deficit,” Robert Dittmar calculated.

    But the mention of a raising the Medicare eligibility age has drawn an outcry from economists and policy wonks. For that, you can blame, well, math. Raising the cut-off for Medicare to 67 from 65 would save the US government $5.7 billion in 2014, but would increase total health care costs by $11.4 billion, including higher costs for employers and states. Worse, it could raise premiums by some 3%. And, though the CBO says the move could save the government $148 billion over 10 years, it would have an outsized effect on the less educated, minorities, and the bottom 50%, who, unlike the well-off, have seen almost no increase in life expectancy in the last 30 years. In Duncan Black’s words: “it will cost money, not save money, and also kill people”.

    Matt Yglesias calls this “an absurd means of saving the federal government money—akin to raising $12 billion in taxes and then setting half the money on fire. The only people who actually benefit from this shift are health care providers who get to charge higher prices to 65- and 66-year-olds.” Ezra Klein wonders if policymakers have “a kind of elite blindness” to the idea that some people — poorer people, especially — don’t like to work. Making people wait longer for Medicare, he writes, would address exactly none of America’s truly crucial healthcare problems:

    It doesn’t modernize the system or bend the cost curve. It doesn’t connect to any coherent theory of health reform, like increasing Medicare’s bargaining power, increasing competition in Medicare, ending fee-for-service medicine, or learning which treatments work and which don’t.

    Klein’s preferred age-related approach, from Ezekiel Emanuel, would tie of Medicare eligibility to lifetime earnings. — Ryan McCarthy

    the small depression wasn’t really caused by bad mortgage loans?
    http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2012/12/did-risky-mortgage-lending-cause.html

  3. DeDude says:

    Worth noting in the linked MarketWatch story. Tax increases on marginal rates will hurt GDP by 0.1% whereas the payrole tax increase would hurt it by 0.7%. Which of those is it that the GOP are fighting against? I guess it really isn’t about the economy, but about themselves and their campaign donors.

  4. Iamthe50percent says:

    There are many people who would like to retire at 62 but don’t because they will lose health insurance. Medicare age should be lowered, not raised, to the earliest SS age, 62, but only if the claimant has filed for SS, which at 62 means he/she is truly retired and their job can be filled by an unemployed young person (or an H1-B if the corporations have their way).

  5. Mike in Nola says:

    Obama housing official collects his payoff at the revolving door.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2012/12/10/obama-housing-official-to-join-wells-fargo/

  6. rd says:

    One thought on the manufacturing of things in the US. The energy equation may be coming into play.

    If global oil prices are stuck in a $100 +/- $20 trading range but hydro-fracking is causing very low natural gas costs in the eastern and mid-west US as well as cheap mid-west oil, then the energy cost of transporting goods globally will be much higher than the relative energy cost of a manufacturing plant in a location with cheap gas (which is not Asia). Since 2008 we have entered a very unusual energy pricing scenario where it is the first time in decades where Cushing oil, global oil, and US natural gasprices are not tightly linked for extended periods of time.