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Coincident to Lagging Economic Indicator

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On December 13, 2012 @ 12:33 pm In Data Analysis,Economy | Comments Disabled

click for larger graphic
[1]
Source: Street Talk Live [2]

 

 

Whenever we are near fully invested, we begin to look for the drivers that have the potential to derail the current portfolio posture.

Earnings were the prime worry last month. Now, the concern is an eventual recession coming sooner rather than later.

Towards that concern, Albert Edwards of Soc Gen points us to John Hussman who points us to Lance Roberts, who is looking at the Coincident to Lagging Economic Indicators (above) . Dennis Gartman has called this the “single best recession forecaster” there is.

While I don’t believe that a recession is a sure thing, I also suspect (fear?) that it is a greater possibility than most Non-Rosenberg economists are forecasting.

That is the nature of the art of investing – it requires probabalistic decision-making using imperfect information about an inherently unknowable future.


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[1] Image: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/lei-coincident-to-lagging-112312.png

[2] Street Talk Live: http://www.streettalklive.com/daily-x-change/1342-chart-of-the-day-lei-leading-to-lagging-ratio.html

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