Why do people give these idiots even a millisecond of time?

 

 

Previously:
End of Worlders: Classic Game Theory Error (May 2011)

Source:
Doomsdays
Economist.com, Dec 20th 2012
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/12/daily-chart-11

Category: Really, really bad calls, UnGuru

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

19 Responses to “End of World Predictions Are for Suckers Only”

  1. denim says:

    Because we have never seen such a sophisticated chart of charlatans before?

    Some say they were not wrong, but it was postponed because the Lord decided to have mercy.

  2. Uchicagoman says:

    Worlds are ending everyday. We all will die someday.

  3. Jack Damn says:

    Why do people give these idiots even a millisecond of time?

    Probably for the same reasons the main stream financial media gives market top/bottom callers the time of day. I mean, why do we give anyone who calls for a market top or bottom the time of day? Why? Whenever the market rolls over just a bit or takes a massive one day hit, the financial media begins rolling out the usually “top” callers …. who are mostly wrong, but easily forgotten when the market turns up.

    Same with calling market bottoms. I remember during the 2007-09 market decline, people called “the bottom” dozens of times over the decline before we actually bottomed. By that time, people were calling for a bottom once a week on Twitter and in blogs. Someone finally got it right, but not after having been wrong a half dozen times previously.

    This might come in handy for some people:

    List of dates predicted for apocalyptic events
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dates_predicted_for_apocalyptic_events

  4. Frilton Miedman says:

    Let’s not be too hasty to discard end-of-days possibilities.

    I’m off to the in-laws in about an hour.

  5. ToNYC says:

    “Why do people give these idiots even a millisecond of time?”

    One word answer: Schadenfreude

    Less bloody than the instant Wily Coyote; more like Slow Train Going.

  6. jb.mcmunn says:

    Since the universe is merely a mental construct of my mind, you all end when I do. I’m heading out now to drive drunk at high speed, buy some cigarettes and taunt people at gun shows to celebrate my 99th birthday. Enjoy the time you have left.

  7. Cavex says:

    Because the EOW is FUN. —– Don’t know if it makes money unless you count news filler as money making? But if Barry reall had guts here, he should have posted this before 12-21-2012. NOW we only have to worry about Sir Isaac Newton the “inventor of gravity” (just kidding about that part) because his E-O-W prediction is still out there and has a defined date of “the year 2060.” — (22 February 2003, the Daily Telegraph, London, England)
    “The media has perpetuated a myth that science and religion are inherently in conflict (the fact is, sometimes they are; but religion has also often stimulated the development of science). The story about Newton predicting the Apocalypse in 2060 is the sort of thing that one would expect to see on the covers of the tabloids. In this case, however, the story is true. Ironically, the tabloids did not cover the story (perhaps because this story, although counter-intuitive to many people, is authentic).” — (http://www.isaac-newton.org/update.html)

    ~~~

    BR: I posted this on May 20th, 2011: End of Worlders: Classic Game Theory Error

    I’ll add it above

  8. Cavex says:

    Because the EOW is FUN. —– Don’t know if it makes money unless you count news filler as money making? But if Barry really had guts here, he should have posted this before 12-21-2012. NOW we only have to worry about Sir Isaac Newton’s the “inventor of gravity” and his prediction (just kidding about inventor part) because his E-O-W prediction is still out there and has a defined date of “the year 2060.” — (22 February 2003, the Daily Telegraph, London, England)
    “The media has perpetuated a myth that science and religion are inherently in conflict (the fact is, sometimes they are; but religion has also often stimulated the development of science). The story about Newton predicting the Apocalypse in 2060 is the sort of thing that one would expect to see on the covers of the tabloids. In this case, however, the story is true. Ironically, the tabloids did not cover the story (perhaps because this story, although counter-intuitive to many people, is authentic).” — (http://www.isaac-newton.org/update.html)

  9. Bokolis says:

    C’Mon, why do people sing along to Journey or, worse yet, at ballgames to Sweet Caroline; it’s so silly that it’s fun? Sometimes, it’s fun to act like a goofball. Granted, you might not see the rapture or market bottoms as joke-able topics (or, at least, the part about trying to pass it off as for real to unsuspecting public). But, we know it’s all bullspit. Every Friday, when someone says to me, see you Monday , I always respond, if there is a Monday. And, every Monday, they say, wrong again (Bokolis).

    Hey, Kudlow never stops so why should I?

  10. Bill in SF says:

    It may not be the end of the world, but some republicans are having a hard time coping with an Obama second term.

    “Hassett, with an oddly cheerful, Oh-What-My-Country-Has-Done-Now mien, predicted economic doom under Obama, the most likely scenario being another Great Depression, which would make 2008 look like a joyride.

    That prompted a tall, extremely tanned blonde named Kay, from Old Greenwich, Connecticut, to ask Hassett, the co-­author of the 1999 book Dow 36,000, “So what do we do with our money?”

    Steaming past Guantánamo, en route to the Cayman Islands, a boatload of Republicans ponder the plight of a party at sea.
    http://nymag.com/news/features/republican-caribbean-cruise-2012-12/

  11. scapescu says:

    Newton, Luther, Columbus, Botticelli, idiots. I need some examples of intelligent people.

  12. ilsm says:

    @denim,

    The priests told the few christian Vikings that there were too many ‘unbaptized’ for the first millenium to end the world.

    In that regard, Ragnorak is being put off because no one dies with a sword in their hand anymore, so Valhalla is not getting new warriors.

    I would like being served by Valkyrie…………………….

  13. bakerjd99 says:

    There is an upside. After each end of the world skeptic get to celebrate I Told You So Day.

    http://bakerjd99.wordpress.com/2012/12/21/apocalypse-never-or-i-told-you-so-day/

  14. theexpertisin says:

    We seem to tolerably listen to economists and politicians. and they are about as accurate as your Doomsday List.

    And don’t forget the crap on the internet that is taken as fact by folks who should know better.

  15. JB7456 says:

    The Mayans didnt say the calendar was going to end. Croutons who are intellectually lazy extrapolated an end of a cycle into an end of time. So the Mayan broders are good. On the positive side of things…the minds true revelation…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjxSCAalsBE

  16. beaufou says:

    Saint Martin predicted the end of the world? never heard or read anything about it, I searched and came out empty handed.

  17. mathman says:

    Hey – all the best to everyone here and especially our host Mr. Ritholtz for this holiday season.

    i read somewhere that the Mayan calendar misinterpretation was that it indicated not (only) THE END (of a very long time cycle), but the beginning of the end. i’m not gonna be all doom and gloom today (for a change) but just want to point out that i’m of the mindset of Frilton Miedman above on this, so:

    Enjoy and cherish the time you have with co-workers, family and friends. We never know when it’s all gonna just stop.

  18. glomndoom says:

    Doomsday happened long ago and this is a simulation: http://t.co/tZM3QHlS

  19. victor says:

    A few quotes from Nassim Taleb may be appropriate:

    “Any system susceptible to a Black Swan will eventually blow up.”

    Taleb gives three interrelated reasons why our fourth quadrant forecasts fail:

    1. Our minds have significant cognitive biases that cloud our ability to reason accurately.
    2. We do not understand that our world is increasingly complex and unpredictable.
    3. Our forecasting methods are inappropriate for quadrant IV decisions.

    Why don’t we talk about our record in predicting? Perhaps because the author of such papers might become stigmatized by his colleagues? Why don’t we see how we (almost) always miss the big events? I call this the scandal of prediction.”