click for larger charts

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I meant to get to these yesterday, but was too busy working on tonight’s Best of Music for 2012 post. A man’s got to have his priorities!

S&P:

The chart above depicts the annual returns of the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. In October 2012, the 10- and 20-City Composites recorded respective annual increases of 3.4% and 4.3%, and monthly declines of 0.1% each.

 

 
Source:
Sustained Recovery in Home Prices According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
David Blitzer &  Dave Guarino
S&P Indices, December 26, 2012

Category: Real Estate

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

6 Responses to “Home Prices Fall Monthly, Rise Annually in October 2012”

  1. Hammer of Thor says:

    Any thoughts on why the Northeast is lagging behind in the recovery?

  2. Conan says:

    The description in the article for the second graph is:

    The chart on the previous page shows the index levels for the 10-City and 20-City Composite Indices. As of October 2012, average home prices across the United States are back to their autumn 2003 levels for both the 10-City and 20-City Composites. Measured from their June/July 2006 peaks, the decline for both Composites is approximately 30% through October 2012 and approximately 35% from the June/July 2006 peak values to their recent lows in early 2012. The October 2012 levels for both Composites are about 8.4 to 9% above their early 2012 low.

    Now look at the same chart from 1990 to 1997. Use your skills in reading charts as a technical annalist. If and when we see a true breakout from this formation, I will consider we are going somewhere as an aggregate. Local markets have their own charts and should be used for more specific information.

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    BR: Houses are not stocks, and prices are a function of purchasing power — ie, they are directly tied to interest rates.

    With those rates now at 75 year lows, what happens when they begin to rise?

  3. Conan says:

    Thanks Barry, I realize houses are not stocks, but a graph is a graph and a trend is a trend. The stock or bond or commodity market are not the only charts that have trends.

    Thus the slope of this graph is not pointed up, nor down, but other than the gyrating noise, if I was to call this one I would call it flat and range bound.

    Now on fundamental basis, here is some metrics.

    Price to income. good compared to the bubble years, but not close to the low of the mid 1990′s. The same can be said for price to rent. So hard to sell this one on fundamentals.

    http://www.housingviews.com/2012/12/11/rent-buy-and-price-income-data-show-continuing-improvement-in-housing/

    Another consideration although interest rates are low, the ability to qualify is harder and the down payment much greater. Plus there is the debate as to the role of shadow inventory.

    Lastly please remind me how many times has it been said that Housing is recovering? I’m sure one day this will be true, but I can’t back this hope up with data yet. Call me skeptical, but I don’t see a clear breakout or new trend to upside yet.

  4. Conan says:

    Sorry about 3 posts in a row, but I just saw the graph you posted called “Home Prices Hit a Milestone”. This clearly shows a bunch of flat and some even down prices. I would call any of them clear trends to the upside. (unless you look really short term)

    Even the National Association of Realtor cheerleaders are saying affordability is slipping.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/100301299/Housing_Affordability_Begins_to_Slide

  5. 10x25mm says:

    Rising home prices in Detroit were supposedly a major component in the C-S index rise. But our local news is bemoaning a record rate of pet abandonments hereabouts. Detroit area animal shelters are offering $ 250 of incentives to each adopter in an attempt to reduce euthanizations. Are we becoming a bimodal society?

  6. oblom says:

    Barry, are you coming around on your views of the real estate market? Back in mid-summer I recall you were adamant that the bottom is not in yet. ;-)