I love this comment from Dynamic Hedges:

“In cable news, debate means two opposing ideologues get equal time to spout bullshit. In trading, opposing views means someone is actually going to be right and someone is actually going to be wrong. Seek out debate and use it to clarify or disprove your thesis. Find people who will challenge your opinions and listen carefully to their arguments. Don’t be afraid to change your mind.”

-10 Tips From the Trenches

That’s the difference between punditry and managing assets — with one, there are tangible results and a scorecard of success or failure; with the other, noise . . .

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Philosophy, Rules

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

16 Responses to “QOTD: Trading versus Debating”

  1. Greg0658 says:

    I’ll play .. imo Apple sold off yesterday from a shot on the trade’g floor .. whereas last month was j6p+bWg cash’g in their CDs (certificates of deposit) for Hur Sandy repairs and survive’g in camp sites .. if right – can the cash box regain or is the fad over? .. and I don’t play that way – like this post comes across – the iDevice (but pc here) is a tool – not a bitCoin … further before submit — “money for nothing and your chicks for free” – “the market givith and the market takith” – manufacturers must love|hate you’s

  2. constantnormal says:

    A seasonal note to all …

    I like to periodically engage in a bit of a disconcerting exercise … ask yourself when was the last time you changed your mind on *any* matter of significance or consequence?

    If you are older than 20, your answer will probably be hard to come by, and that should bother you …

    Now, go out and begin to question all those unchangeable “facts” that we so dearly cling to …

  3. JimRino says:

    There’s a score card in politics.
    Global Warming Drought, Floods, Sandy, Global Glacier Melt = We Lose.

  4. call me ahab says:

    everyone take the time to check out the Dave Bruebeck link BR has up in the Weekend section- dude died yesterday 92

    I was listening to a clip from him on NPR yesterday from 1999- dude wanted to follow in his father’s foot steps to be a cowboy (true) and instead followed in his mother’s footsteps to be a musician

    interesting life choices

  5. kaleidic says:

    Traders are not right or wrong. At best they are able to discern whether there will be more people who want to buy or sell rather than those on the opposite side, a condition that may be reversed at the next moment. Often markets trade in ways that are fundamentally irrational.

  6. MidlifeNocrisis says:

    I was approximately 50 years old when I decided I needed to objectively study the “real” impacts of public debt and government deficits. What the politicians said versus what many economists said just didn’t add up. It was a very enlightening experience and changed the whole manner in which I view the subject. The whole issue of bond vigilantes and inflationistas is quite facinating.

  7. gman says:

    Don’t forget your recent post on methodology. In those mkt based pundit debates people can be correct in the call (like calling heads on a coin toss) but with unsound models/methodology.

  8. wally says:

    “Find people who will challenge your opinions and listen carefully to their arguments. Don’t be afraid to change your mind.”

    Good advice, if you’ve got the guts to do it.

  9. whatever says:

    I only change my mind of my facts have changed.

  10. 4whatitsworth says:

    Well said! “put your money where your mouth is”. My bet is that this class warfare thing does not end well. At this point I am now largely out of the market and into a private investment that I have complete control over (Yes this raised tax revenue for this year). This investment is in a state that has not f*ucked itself by creating excessive government and taxation. I believe that we will find that the current political ideas do even less to encourage work and responsibility than the old ideas. Also our company is now going to focus on government opportunities because now the government will indeed need to be the “job creators” and if they are going to take from people that make more than 250K they may as well give it to me first. In truth I am not happy about this the government contracting game is incredibly un satisfying because no one is spending their own money, they are overly political, and they just blame others for their problems.

    The interesting thing about the current debate is that no one has asked what the government is going to with the wealth (AKA our work) but why should they after all as Obama famously said “They did not create it”.

  11. techy says:

    4whatitsworth: Really, you mean all that?? I guess thats the tragedy of this nation, the people who work all day and still barely able to pay their bills are in bed with the millonaires for whom it is not enough that they own 95% of wealth and that due to their outsourcing/cost cutting measures its become hard to even find decent jobs in most areas.

    This is just an imbalance, all the savings has been accumulated by 2% which will not get spent, while their wealth keeps increasing while upto 50% of people are barely able to pay their bills.

    How do you fix this? one option is to make the unfortunate suffer other option is to transfer to the economy from people who have cornered all the wealth and income. I am thinking wealth tax, estate tax, gift tax, capital gain tax etc..

  12. S Brennan says:

    “if they are going to take from people that make more than 250K they may as well give it to me first.”

    Spoken like a modern day US patriot.

    FYI, the first income tax exempted the lower 60% of US workers, it was passed by the super wealthy to spread the pain downward of paying import tariffs on their luxury goods.

    Again, 38% of Federal Receipts are from [regressive] payroll taxes, 9% from [regressive] point sale taxes and only 47% from income tax.

    That said; this is entirely correct: “the government contracting game is … overly political”. Government spending should be; according to the US Constitution “for the general welfare”. So programs to employ, spur the economy, et al, should be directed towards projects that benefit the general population.

    So spending should not just benefit one group as does Timmy Giethner’s trillions of US Government Welfare to his buddies in the financial sector. Instead, government spending should return to long term technology development, infrastructure and basic science, as well as repair and maintenance.

  13. 4whatitsworth says:

    @Techy, I agree there is an imbalance and that the bottom 50% need to find a way to a create a better life for themselves(B-T-W largely these 50% pay no income tax and receive great benefits). I also agree that the wealthy can pay more in taxes. I also think that there are very hard working people that make 40-250K that deserve to be better rewarded for their work.

    My concern and I really hope I am wrong is that this class warfare ends very very badly and ends up harming all of us. We are already seeing damage look at Hostess and the Port of Los Angeles did these events create any benefit for the new great society? Did anyone notice after Obama spoke with Mohammed Morsi of Egypt that he attempted to dramatically expand his government powers and Obama requested that our debt limit be permanently lifted? Is this really the type of political leadership we need? In my view If we are not careful this will mark a terrible turning point in American history where the political message is to expect benefits without paying for them and the government will become larger and larger. I wonder if this next generation really understands what a larger and more powerful government means in the long run and how long it will take to unwind it.
    How do you fix it? Good question.. raise taxes fine even take the inheritance tax to 100%, then use this money to put put the bottom 50% to work. They can clean, shovel and learn new skills on the job. If they are not willing to put in an honest and focused days work fire them and let them know that they just blew through the safety net! Next get rid of organizations like the teachers unions that are clearly out for themselves and harmful to the greater good replace them with young energetic people that want to make a difference. Next get the government in order. Have two sides to government organizations an investment side and an expense side take the expense side to only necessary personnel and use the savings for investment projects new schools better defense programs etc. Government workers who don’t fit in a very efficient administration role or on as a contributor on the capital side can join the people in the safety net. That would do as a starter.

    @S Brennan, when I hear that type of stuff I often ask so what do you do? You would be supoprised how often I hear I am retired from government work!

  14. techy says:

    4whatitsworth: as long as UE remains high its very hard to say that people are lazy hence they are on UE benefits.

    we need to get the UE down to 5% or less and then I will be happy to cut the UE benfits to 10 weeks, and it should be barely living expenses.

    But today I do not see government employees or unions making it like bandits, but I do see that millonaires have cornered all the wealth and income in the past 30 years such that more than 70% of people have almost zero net worth and have seen no wage increase in the last 10 years.

    I agree that the liberals are cutting too much slack to welfare recipients, gov employees, union employees etc. But republicans on the other hand are almost saying lets make the poor homeless and lets not fix the healthcare but just make the old people fend for themself, and they do not have any problems with multi millionaires making millions by investment and paying less in taxes. This was how society existed in the monarchies do we still want that few people benefit from the system while the rest toil away their life with hope?

    I live in the south and I know very well that this debate about deficit and taxes is just BS debate. The real reason is something else. Republicans strategy is to obstruct all plans to make things better and blame all the ills on them come election time and once they come to power it will be business as usual.

  15. S Brennan says:

    4whatitsworth,

    You are so far off when you “guess” at my career path…that you make the point of the post.

    Anybody reading TBP for any length of time knows my bio and hence knows that your wild speculation is just the kind ideologically driven commentary that chokes our nation and prevents us from implementing solutions that are obvious to the most casual observer.

  16. Biffah Bacon says:

    @techy and @4what

    I find the envy displayed in your posts towards shipping clerks, government workers, and people on UE and welfare to be the most disturbing thing of all. It is pretty clear that you both have benefited from the system as it stands and have little to no empathy for people who have suffered from the system as it stands. I think its time to go back and watch “Trading Places” again and reflect for a while on how fortunate you (we) are that we have benefitted from a system that has evolved over centuries to benefit us sufficiently that we can look at the people who have been excluded or who have found a bit of good fortune or leverage and find reason to gripe about them. Despite how many gripe about “Welfare Queens” and “Union Bums” I never have got anyone to agree to switch places-wonder why?
    The biggest problem is always the one in the mirror in the morning.