Succinct summation of week’s events:

Positives:

1) Durable goods orders in Nov bounce and Oct revised higher as cap ex stabilizes after previous 4 mo’s of weakness. Still, cap ex basically flat y/o/y.
2) Philly mfr’g in Dec bounces unexpectedly to +8.1 from -10.7 as this region wasn’t hit as hard as NY/NJ during the storm.
3) Initial Jobless Claims normalize at 361k. 4 week avg back to pre storm level.
4) Existing Home Sales total 5.04mm vs 4.76mm in Oct and est of 4.9mm. It’s best since Nov ’09 when home buying tax credit juiced results. Months supply falls to 4.8 from 5.3, lowest since Oct ’05.
5) NAHB home builder index rises 2 pts to 47, best since Apr ’06.
6) Multi family permits jump 32k.
7) Real income grows .8% in Nov on bounceback from storm. Real spending up by .6% and Savings Rate rises to 3.6% from 3.4%. PCE inflation deflator falls to 1.4% from 1.7%.
8) German IFO business confidence up 1 pt to 102.4 led by expectations component as current conditions fall.
9) China property prices of new homes rise in 53 of 70 cities surveyed vs 35 in Oct.
10) If you like electronic money printing, BoJ adds another 10T yen to its program, Nikkei trades above 10,000 intraweek as exporters get breather with weaker yen.

Negatives:

1) Another week without a fiscal deal but S&P’s still higher on week, notwithstanding last nights drama.
2) Dec UoM final confidence # falls to 72.9 from initial 74.5 and down from 82.7 in Nov mostly led by decline in the Outlook.
3) NY mfr’g doesn’t rebound as fast as Philly after storm as index falls to -8 from -5 and 7 pts worse than expected.
4) KC mfr’g negative for 3rd straight month at -2 but was better than expectations of -5.
5) Within Philly mfr’g, prices paid rise to 10 mo high, prices received at 19 mo high, KC region prices paid at 10 mo high.
6) Nov Housing Starts total 861k vs 888k in Oct (highest since July ’08 but near trough levels of ’74, ’81 and ’91 recessions with a much larger population) and est of 872k. Single family permits fall a touch.
7) Coincident with move higher in long term interest rates, avg 30yr mortgage rate rises to one month, albeit still at historically low levels.
8) More likely due to seasonals than anything, MBA said refi’s fall 13.8% and purchase apps down 4.8%.
9) FDI in China in Nov falls 5.4% y/o/y, more than expected and negative for the 12th month in the past 13.
10) UK CPI in Nov holds at highest level since May at 2.7%, above the 2% BoE target for the 36th straight month.

Category: Markets

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4 Responses to “Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (12/21/2012)”

  1. willid3 says:

    2012…year of banksters?
    http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/12/19/counterparites-2012-the-year-of-bank-fraud/

    ____

    BR: We linked to this yesterday AM

  2. [...] Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (The Big Picture) [...]

  3. With this week’s economic data releases, the Debt Wall model projects the Treasury Dept’s ability to float new bonds will be handcuffed by its $16.394 Debt Limit on Dec 24th. This event will be signaled by the Treasury Secretary announcing a Debt Issuance Suspension Period. His dept will then engage in Extraordinary Measures for about eight weeks to creatively keep the gov’t operating and selective bills paid. Before shuttering measures are necessitated, new expenditure cuts will have to be negotiated with Boehner to raise the Debt Limit: $1.3 trillion to Dec/2013 or $2.2 trillion to Dec/2014.

    The TRI model gauges Q4 GDP is 1.1% in Canada & 8.9% for China. The pace is 1.2% in the USA but TRI’s measure of animal-spirits-plus indicates further deterioration of my Q1 & Q2 outlooks.

    the charts: http://trendlines.ca/free/economics

  4. As expected Geithner issues the DISP today and has announced $200 billion of extraordinary measures availability. These negotiations must be complete in eight weeks. ..