Succinct summation of week’s events:

Positives

1) Labor Dept unexpectedly says Sandy didn’t have much influence on data in Nov as Payrolls gain 146k vs est of 85k which assumed more of an impact. The unemployment rate falls to 7.7% but not for right reasons as household survey shows job loss at same time size of labor force falls sharply
2) Jobless Claims normalize at 370k after weeks of hurricane distortions vs est of 380k
3) ISM services index up .5 pt to 54.7 vs est of 53.5
4) Construction spending in Oct better than est led by residential area
5) Vehicle sales in Nov total 15.5mm vs est of 15mm and the most since Feb ’08 due in part to post Sandy buying and easy $ subprime buyers coming back
6) Bankrate.com says avg 30 yr mortgage rate at record low of 3.36%, MBA said refi’s bounced 6.1% after previous 7 of 8 weeks lower
7) Australia and Canada report better than expected job gains in Nov
8) German factory orders in Oct rise 3.9% m/o/m vs est of up 1%, DAX closes week just below best level since Jan ’08
9) Euro zone mfr’g and services index revised to 46.5 from 45.8, although below 50 for 10th straight month
10) China’s mfr’g PMI slightly below est but rises to 50.6 from 50.2 and services PMI up a tick to 55.6 from 55.5. Shanghai index trades at lowest since Jan ’09 but closes week at best in 4 weeks
11) RBA cuts rates to ’09 low of 3% as they have flexibility with rate still above CPI.

Negatives

1) Within payrolls, in addition to above mentioned on components of unemployment rate, two prior months revised down by 49k (mostly in public sector), avg hourly earnings up just 1.7% y/o/y vs last CPI # of 2.2%, participation rate falls to 63.6% and avg workweek remains unch (due to hurricane?)
2) UoM Confidence in Dec falls to 74.5 from 82.7 mostly due to big fall in the Outlook (fiscal concerns?). Also, 1 yr inflation expectations rise to 3.3% matching highest since Aug even with continued fall in gasoline prices
3) ISM mfr’g back below 50 at 49.5 as New Orders, Backlogs and Exports fall
4) IP #’s from Germany, the UK and the Netherlands all weaker than est
5) EU retail sales in Oct below est
6) Italian MIB index ends week soft on Monti gov’t uncertainty
7) China’s HSBC PMI services index falls to 52.1 vs 53.5 in contrast to state weighted PMI, 8)Both exports and imports in Nov for Taiwan well below est.

Category: Markets

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7 Responses to “Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (12/7/12)”

  1. With this week’s economic data releases, the Debt Wall model continues to project the Treasury Dept’s ability to float new bonds will be handcuffed by its $16.394 Debt Limit on Dec 11th. CBO says Treasury Dept can engage in about ten weeks of creative bookkeeping before shuttering measures are necessitated.

    The TRI model gauges Q4 GDP is on a 1.1% pace in Canada, 8.9% in China & 1.1% in the USA. TRI’s measure of animal-spirits-plus which had been indicating a very robust 2013Q2 (based on a Romney victory) continues to deteriorate.

    the charts: http://trendlines.ca/free/economics

  2. tshelton12 says:

    Really helpful summary of week. Easy to keep the right perspective with this post. Keep doing this please.

  3. breaking news: new date for attaining Debt Limit is Dec 24th

  4. [...] *Conventional Super-Conforming cap = $625,500. FHA Super-Conforming cap = $729,750. ___ Reference: – Succinct Summation Of Week’s Events (TheBigPicture) [...]

  5. mitchn says:

    Anyone know what percentage of the decline in the participation rate was the result of older boomers deciding, all things considered, that they could retire before they turned 65? We’re going to see more of that over the next couple of years.

  6. vincible says:

    Is FCX plunging 16% after buying two companies for ten billion going to be on next week’s summation?

  7. mitchn, my TRI model projects Canada’s participation rate will decline from its 2008 high of 64% to 55% over the next four decades. The USA rate peaked @ 67% in Y2k, is 64% today and is en route for a similar trajectory.