Lakshman Achuthan, Economic Cycle Research Institute, says the U.S. has been in a recession since July


Source: CNBC.com, Thursday, 6 December 2012 7:51 PM ET

Category: Economy, Video

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6 Responses to “US in Recession Since July?”

  1. stonedwino says:

    The only show that would book Lakshman Achuthan at this point is Kudlow?

  2. Knownuthing says:

    ECRI WLI has shown to be too dependent of stocks performance, and thus Lakshman Achuthan finds himself in the awkward position of supporting a recession that the WLI does not show. As soon as the stocks start tanking, the WLI finally will show recession. Pretty soon if I am correct.

    Who knows when the NBER will put the final date on the start of the 2013 recession. It could be 2012 Q3 or Q4. It is not that relevant.

    For the record, OECD already lists over 50% of its countries in contraction. That is a global recession.

  3. JoseOle says:

    Achuthan’s predicament reminds me somewhat of those of Lance Armstrong or Roger Clemens. At some point, no matter how absurd it looks, admitting fault is so painful that you are compelled to stick to your story.

  4. Knownuthing says:

    JoseOle, there is a fundamental difference. Since 1900 the US has entered recession on average every 4.8 years. If Achutan’s sticks to his story sooner or later (and I am afraid it will be sooner) he will be proven right. Not that much merit on that.

  5. JoseOle says:

    Knownuthing: His “story” is not that the US will enter recession someday, but that it did so in July or thereabouts. That’s a refutable assertion, which I expect will be proven wrong.

  6. There have been dramatic upward revisions of past data in several economic releases. TRI gauges Oct GDP was 1.1% and Nov/Dec are on a 1.2% pace. The body of evidence says no contraction in Q4 and animal-spirits-plus indicate no contraction in Q1 or beyond…

    TRI charts: http://trendlines.ca/free/economics/RecessionIndicatorUSA/USA-TRI.htm