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Bull Market Durations

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On January 15, 2013 @ 12:00 pm In Cycles,Investing,Markets,Technical Analysis | Comments Disabled

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There are lots of ways to look at the question of how long cyclical bull markets run for. Each approach has specific strengths and weaknesses.

Jim Stack of Investech Research [2] has one of the better charts: Simple straight forward, easy to understand.

The current rally that began in March 2009 is now 3.8 years old — that is the average duration of bull markets since 1929. (The current Fed interventions are the obvious wild card).

I have noted repeatedly over the years how similar this cycle was to 1973-74.  That rally went over 6 years before a serious 1980 recession and correction. This is not my forecast (I don’t have one) but I would not be surprised if the current move is somewhat parallel to the post 73-74 rally.

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[1] Image: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/bull-duration.png

[2] Investech Research: https://www.investech.com/

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