Succinct Summation of Week’s Events:

Positives:

1) Housing starts strong
2) Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPM, GE earnings were good
3) Retail sales stronger than expected
4) China GDP grows 7.9 percent in Q4 — better than expected
5) Industrial Production was in line;
6) CPI inflation modest
7) PPI report was soft; inflationary pressures remain muted
8) Speculation about Dell LBO could heat up M&A activity
9) Beige Book reports modest expansion in economic activity;
10) Japanese stock market comes alive on new stimulus plan

Negatives:

1) Consumer confidence sucks, back at December low 70s levels;
2) Debt ceiling talks off to a weak start (fiscal cliff redux);
3) Intel profit falls 27% on PC sales drop (stock falls 7%);
4) Apple down 30% from peak is a broken stock technically;
5) Oil prices are climbing;
6) Citigroup, Bank America earnings disappoint;
7) Philly Fed declines more than expected; Empire manufacturing basically flat;

If I missed any, please let me know in comments.

Category: Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

15 Responses to “Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (January 18, 2013)”

  1. mathman says:

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/01/18/1179915/-The-Strange-Failed-El-Nino-the-Deepening-Drought-Disaster

    The U.S. hard red winter wheat crop, which is in the worst condition since the USDA began reporting conditions, was declared a disaster on January 9. And new long range forecasts by the Climate Prediction Center predict the drought to get worse in the southern plains and the southwest. Heavy rains in the Ohio valley have improved conditions there and raised the Mississippi River south of Cairo, but the upper Mississippi River continues to drop towards record low levels which would make the river impassible to commerce.

    (read it)

  2. Concerned Neighbour says:

    You missed the positive of yet another epic ramp job into the close after being negative or flat all day. Then again, these have happened so regularly over the past four years I suppose they deserve no mention as they are now par for the course. Plus ca change…

    BTW, Intel is up 3% in the new year. In this market, nothing can possibly stay down for long. I expect they’ll turn AAPL around to turbo-boost the market past 1500 in the near future.

  3. CN,

    re: INTC

    today’s ‘whackage’ may provide a decent entry point for those that ‘missed it’, mid-Nov, in the low 19s..

    http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=INTC

    + it was getting ‘ahead of itself’..just, now, back to its 20sma..

    Stock is ‘over-hated’, for all the wrong reasons..

    and, if you want make it ‘Real Simple’, do some INTC Buy-Writes..~

  4. eliz says:

    Positives: 8) Speculation about Dell LBO could heat up M&A activity

    Positive for some stocks and the phantom economy.
    Negative for workers, and the real economy.

  5. Dale C says:

    Apple is done. Even Al Gore cashed in his options.

    ~~~

    BR: Um, that That means he bought the stock — not sold. I suggest you have more homework to do if you wish to discuss these things intelligently

  6. eliz says:

    Positives: 3) Retail sales stronger than expected
    Negatives: 1) Consumer confidence sucks, back at December low 70s levels

    Mmmm….

    I wonder if a minority (20%) are consuming more and the majority (80%) are consuming less.

  7. catman says:

    Intel scores as a strong brand name, a near monopoly and a strong cash generator – per your recent Bunting’s Laws post.

  8. With this week’s economic data releases, the Debt Wall model projects the Treasury Dept’s ability to utilize Extraordinary Measures to avoid the Debt Limit will exhaust on Feb 21st. That said, watch for the GOP to transition from the Debt Limit venue to address entitlement reform to the more proper Continuing Appropriation Resolution (which extends the 2009 Budget) and fortunately expires on March 27th. Congress requires $1.3 trillion to make it to Dec/2013 or $2.2 trillion to survive ’til Dec/2014.

    The TRI model gauges Q4 baseline real GDP Q/Q is 1.3% in Canada & 9.4% for China. The Chinese Gov’t announced today it fell to 8.4% in Q4 (from 9.1% Q3). The pace is 1.6% in the USA but TRI’s measure of animal-spirits-plus suggests the level of Q1 & Q2 activity will be much less than the pre-election sentiment indicated.

    The US requires 103k new jobs/month to hold the Unemployment Rate static. The present pace won’t bring the rate down below 6.5% ’til 2017 so the low interest rate regimen will be in place a long time…

    the charts: http://trendlines.ca/free/economics

  9. Today, after the close of the markets, there was a new positive.

    The “classical” Dow Theory flashed a primary bull market signal. I guess that Richard Russell soon will voice it.

    So, right now, either way you cut it, under all variants of the Dow Theory (from the more long term oriented like Schaefer’s to the slightly shorter term oriented like Schannep’s) there is agreement: The primary trend of the market is bullish. Of course, the market is overbought and susceptible to a correction. However, a correction shouldn’t negate the primary trend which now either way we analyse it under Dow Theory is bullish as it is explained with the relevant charts here:

    http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2013/01/dow-theory-update-for-jan-18-no-time.html

  10. mg601 says:

    unemployment claims 335000

    ECRI weekly leading index shoots straight up. their predictions are bad but they haven’t paid attention to their own indicator

  11. [...] Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (The Big Picture) [...]

  12. uglyowl says:

    Weekly jobless claims fell to 335,000, lowest in five years. Remains to be seen if this is an abnormality.

  13. czyz99 says:

    mg601

    ECRI’s recession call put a bottom in late Sept of ’11! I guess rather than admit they were wrong, they just keep bs’ing until a recession does occur.

  14. dancingdiva says:

    Barry – about Apple. I have no position in the stock but disagree it’s broken technically. I have a few point uptrend line (weekly closes only) that puts the breakdown point on a weekly close below the $475-480 level. Until we see at least one close (preferably 2) below that area I can’t agree it’s a technically broken stock.

  15. fitzfrank says:

    On Negatives 3-5:
    – Intel down on PC sales down: sounds like a ‘personal’ problem: i.e., tablets and mobile positive.
    – Apple: sounds like a competitive bump in the road in a robust (positive) segment, i.e. android giving (positive) run for the money and competition revving the segment.
    – Oil up: seems like (positive) demand signal. And, from a national security perspective, a good thing if we account for the true costs, the future price trends(oil, and oil vs. gas), and believe in the oft-demonstrated ability of the US private sector to react to higher oil prices with efficiency initiatives and innovation.