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Uh-Oh: NYT’s Front Page Cover Indicator

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On January 26, 2013 @ 3:00 pm In Contrary Indicators,Investing,Psychology | Comments Disabled

“Americans seem to be falling in love with stocks again.”

 

[1]
That is the first sentence of a front page NYTimes article, titled As Worries Ebb, Small Investors Propel Markets [2].

The rest of the article is just as bullish:

“Millions of people all but abandoned the market after the 2008 financial crisis, but now individual investors are pouring more money than they have in years into stock mutual funds. The flood, prompted by fading economic threats and better news on housing and jobs, has helped propel the broad market to within striking distance of its highest nominal level ever.”

To be sure, there are some caveats throughout:

“While the rising market may lift the nation’s collective spirits, it will not necessarily restore everyone’s portfolios. In good times and bad, many individual investors tend to buy and sell at precisely the wrong moments. They dump stocks after the market falls and buy stocks after the market rises, the opposite of what investors aim to do.”

But overall, there is no escaping the sentiment of either the headline of that first sentence or the gist of the entire column. Stocks are back, baby! Now is the time to jump onboard.

I have been fairly selective as to what qualifies as a magazine cover indicator [3] and what is merely media noise. Let us look at the details of this one:

1) A mainstream non-business publication;

2) Front page or cover story

3) About rallying asset class

4) With a decidely bullish tone to it

That is how I determine when the magazine cover has been initiated. I cannot think of any reason why this one does not qualify.

This chart accompanied the article:

A Steady Ascent
[4]
Source: NYT

 

 

Previously:
Uh-Oh: Time Magazine on Housing [5] (June 6, 2005) BEARISH
Uh-Oh: Facebook’s Zuckerberg is Time Man of the Year [6] (December 17th, 2010) BEARISH
Uh-Oh: Gold on the Cover of NYT Magazine? [7] (May 15th, 2011) BEARISH
NYT Sunday Business: Magazine Cover Indicator? [8] (January 1, 2012) BULLISH
Barron’s Cover: Don’t Lose My Money [9] (January 28th, 2012) BULLISH
Magazine Cover Indicator: New York “End of Wall Street” [10] (February 6th, 2012) BULLISH

Source:
As Worries Ebb, Small Investors Propel Markets [2]
NATHANIEL POPPER
NYT, January 25, 2013
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/26/business/daily-stock-market-activity.html


Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/01/uh-oh-nyts-front-page/

URLs in this post:

[1] Image: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/NYT-1.26.13.png

[2] As Worries Ebb, Small Investors Propel Markets: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/26/business/daily-stock-market-activity.html

[3] magazine cover indicator: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/?domains=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ritholtz.com%2F&sitesearch=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ritholtz.com%2F&cx=015905226837203657063%3Ax1cwdcykvvw&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&cof=FORID%3A11&s=Search&q=magazine+cover+indicator&sa.x=18&sa.y=13

[4] Image: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/SPX-Steady-Ascent1.png

[5] Uh-Oh: Time Magazine on Housing: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2005/06/uh-oh-time-magazine-on-housing/

[6] Uh-Oh: Facebook’s Zuckerberg is Time Man of the Year: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/12/uh-oh-facebook-founder-zuckerberg-is-time-man-of-the-year/

[7] Uh-Oh: Gold on the Cover of NYT Magazine?: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/uh-oh-gold-on-the-cover-of-nyt-magazine/

[8] NYT Sunday Business: Magazine Cover Indicator?: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/01/nyt-sunday-business-magazine-cover-indicator/

[9] Barron’s Cover: Don’t Lose My Money: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/01/barrons-dont-lose-my-money/

[10] Magazine Cover Indicator: New York “End of Wall Street”: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/magazine-cover-indicator-new-york-covers-end-of-wall-street/

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