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US & UK Economies CONTRACTED in Q4 2012

Posted By Washingtons Blog On January 31, 2013 @ 8:30 am In Economy,Think Tank | Comments Disabled

Anglo-American Economies Contract Again

We’ve noted for years that the U.S. – and the entire globe – faces a another leg down [1].

Last week, we pointed out that Britain was in a triple dip, with its economy contracting .4 percent [2] in the fourth quarter of 2012, and that the British economy is now worse than during the Great Depression [3].

Today, the U.S. confirmed that the economy contracted in the fourth quarter of 2012 [4].

For those who are just waking up from their mainstream media-induced stupor [5], let’s take it from the top …

What Do Economic Indicators Say?

We’ve repeatedly pointed out that there are many indicators which show that the last 5 years have been worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s, including:

Mark McHugh reports [15]:

Velocity of money is the frequency with which a unit of money is spent on new goods and services. It is a far better indicator of economic activity than GDP, consumer prices, the stock market, or sales of men’s underwear (which Greenspan was fond of ogling). In a healthy economy, the same dollar is collected as payment and subsequently spent many times over. In a depression, the velocity of money goes catatonic. Velocity of money is calculated by simply dividing GDP by a given money supply. This VoM chart using monetary base should end any discussion of what ”this” is and whether or not anybody should be using the word “recovery” with a straight face:

 U.S. and British Economies CONTRACTED in Fourth Quarter of 2012

In just four short years, our “enlightened” policy-makers have slowed money velocity to depths never seen in the Great Depression.

(As we’ve previously explained, the Fed has intentionally squashed [16] money multipliers and money velocity [17] as a way to battle inflation. And see this [18])

Indeed, the number of Americans relying on government assistance to obtain basic food [19]may be higher now that during the Great Depression. The only reason we don’t see [20] “soup lines” like we did in the 30s is because of the massive food stamp program.

And while apologists for government and bank policy point to unemployment as being better than during the 1930s, even that claim is debatable [21].

What Do Economists Say?

Indeed, many economists agree that this could be worse than the Great Depression [22], including:

Bad Policy Has Us Stuck

We are stuck in a depression because the government has done all of the wrong things, and has failed to address the core problems.

Instead of bringing in new legs, we keep on recycling the same old re-treads who caused the problem in the first place [41].

For example:

  • The government is doing everything else wrong, as well. See this [52] and this [53]

This isn’t an issue of left versus right … it’s corruption and bad policies which help the super-elite but are causing a depression for the vast majority of the people.


Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/01/us-uk-economies-contracted-in-q4-2012/

URLs in this post:

[1] another leg down: https://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Awashingtonsblog.com+%22triple+dip%22&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a#hl=en&client=firefox-a&hs=43j&tbo=d&rls=org.mozilla:en-US%3Aofficial&sclient=psy-ab&q=site:washingtonsblog.com+%22double+dip%22&oq=site:washingtonsblog.com+%22double+dip%22&gs_l=serp.3...5726.7226.0.7724.7.4.0.0.0.3.1918.4895.7-2j1.3.0.les%3B..0.0...1c.1.MDPIAEBpU48&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.&bvm=bv.41642243,d.cGE&fp=bd716464ca59ecaf&biw=785&bih=484

[2] contracting .4 percent: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9826019/UK-heads-for-triple-dip-as-GDP-contracts-0.3pc.html

[3] worse than during the Great Depression: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/01/british-economy-worse-than-during-the-great-depression.html

[4] contracted in the fourth quarter of 2012: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100419252

[5] mainstream media-induced stupor: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/herding-the-sheep.html

[6] housing slump: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/01/housing-slump-worse-than-the-great-depression.html

[7] bank charge off rate: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/bank-charge-off-rate-is-worse-than-during-the-great-depression.html

[8] collapse in world trade: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/krugman-collapse-in-trade-worse-than-the-great-depression.html

[9] withdrawal of short-term credit: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/02/greenspan-worst-financial-crisis-ever-including-the-great-depression.html

[10] inequality between rich and poor: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/12/extreme-inequality-helped-cause-both-the-great-depression-and-the-current-economic-crisis.html

[11] destroys economies: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/12/inequality-was-one-of-the-main-reasons-for-the-fall-of-ancient-rome-and-inequality-in-america-much-worse-than-it-was-in-rome.html

[12] interconnectedness of financial systems and economies: http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/05/taleb-global-crisis-vastly-worse-than.html

[13] leads to financial instability: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/09/derivatives-are-inherently-destabilizing-for-the-financial-system-because-they-increase-interconnectivity.html

[14] spending and greed: http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/11/12/us-finance-summit-whitehead-depression-idUSTRE4AB7HT20081112

[15] reports: http://acrossthestreetnet.wordpress.com/2012/08/19/shhhh-its-even-worse-than-the-great-depression/

[16] intentionally squashed: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/03/the-fed-is-responsible-for-the-crash-in-the-money-multiplier-and-the-failure-of-the-economy-to-recover.html

[17] money velocity: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity_of_money#cite_ref-4

[18] this: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-auerbach/limiting-loans-creates-unemployment_b_1890276.html

[19] number of Americans relying on government assistance to obtain basic food : http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/12/underneath-the-happy-talk-is-this-as-bad-as-the-great-depression.html

[20] only reason we don’t see: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/12/are-food-stamps-the-soup-lines-of-this-great-recession.html

[21] that claim is debatable: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/06/unemployment-during-the-great-depression-has-been-overstated-and-current-unemployment-understated-weve-now-got-depression-level-unemployment.html

[22] many economists agree that this could be worse than the Great Depression: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/10/the-prevailing-debate-among-economists-and-historians-is-whether-the-world-economy-faces-the-great-depression-of-the-1930s-or-the-long-depression-of-the-1870s.html

[23] Ben Bernanke: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/07/even-bernanke-admits-this-could-be.html

[24] Alan Greenspan: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSnZx84b6FjI&pos=4

[25] this: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1aLQ51QXlDA&pos=3

[26] this: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61M4B120100223

[27] Paul Volcker: http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/02/20/usa-economy-volcker-idUSN2027144420090220

[28] Frederic Mishkin: http://www.cnbc.com/id/26850473

[29] Mervyn King: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-second-debt-storm-hits-nations-2010-05-14?pagenumber=2

[30] this: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8812260/World-facing-worst-financial-crisis-in-history-Bank-of-England-Governor-says.html

[31] Joseph Stiglitz: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/29104759#29104759

[32] Paul Krugman: http://blogs.wsj.com/worldbusinessforum/2009/10/07/paul-krugman-in-trade-it%E2%80%99s-not-the-great-depression-it%E2%80%99s-worse/

[33] John Whitehead: http://www.reuters.com/article/Finance08/idUSTRE4AB7HT20081112

[34] Barry Eichengreen and and Kevin H. O’Rourke: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/04/economics-professors-global-crash-worse.html

[35] here: http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3421

[36] Marc Faber: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/01/marc-faber-%e2%80%9ci-think-it-might-be-far-worse-than-the-great-depression-precisely-because-of-the-interventions%e2%80%9d-by-the-government.html

[37] Graham Secker: http://www.chartingstocks.net/2009/03/morgan-stanley-predicts-economic-collapse-worse-than-depression/

[38] Edward J. Pinto: http://thebulletin.us/articles/2009/01/29/business/doc498155695e915629914618.txt

[39] George Soros: http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE51K0A920090221?sp=true

[40] Ed Balls: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/this-is-the-worst-recession-for-over-100-years-1605367.html

[41] caused the problem in the first place: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/01/obamas-appointments-prove-that-he-will-continue-to-lick-wall-streets-boots-in-his-second-term.html

[42] we’ll have “a never-ending depression unless we repudiate the debt, which never should have been extended in the first place”: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/07/economics-professor-well-have-never.html

[43] nothing has been done to rein in fraud today: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/10/fraud-caused-great-depression-and-this.html

[44] cover up fraud: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/08/real-reason-sec-has-been-shredding.html

[45] the economy cannot recover until the big, insolvent banks are broken up: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/debunking-the-too-big-to-fail-myth.html

[46] just helped them to get bigger: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/07/if-we-dont-break-up-the-giant-banks-now-theyll-be-bailed-out-again-and-again-dragging-the-world-economy-down-with-them.html

[47] Excessive leverage helped cause the Great Depression and the current crisis, but the government has encouraged more leverage: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/04/excessive-leverage-helped-cause-the-great-depression-and-the-current-crisis-and-government-responds-by-encouraging-more-leverage.html

[48] Federal Reserve caused the Great Depression and the current crisis: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/06/bernanke-is-either-not-very-bright-or-not-very-honest-he-admits-he-doesnt-know-why-we-have-a-weak-economy-but-hes-the-one-who-weakened-it.html

[49] the government has given the Fed more power than ever: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/10/should-we-give-the-fed-more-power-or-less.html

[50] send manufacturing jobs and dollars abroad: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/07/of-course-unemployment-is-rising-government-policy-is-guaranteeing-it.html

[51] only making things worse: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/09/as-predicted-bernanke-launches-qe3-which-will-destroy-the-economy.html

[52] this: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/03/no-wonder-the-economy-isnt-improving.html

[53] this: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/07/no-wonder-the-outlook-for-the-economy-is-unusually-uncertain-the-fed-is-killing-it.html

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