(Updated:  Note these now reflect the 6am Futures open — click to see updated version)



The year begins with the market in full melt up mode.

The resolution, albeit temporary, has provided investors with a positive impetus to begin the year, as worst case scenarios were not realized.

Cash holdings, a drag on returns for pros when the market is in rally mode, are likely to get put to work. Expect much of the panicky selling that was in anticipation of much higher capital gains and dividend taxes to also be redeployed back into equities.


More later . . .

Category: Markets

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12 Responses to “Welcome to 2013! Day One: Rally”

  1. jaguar6992 says:

    Isn’t the snapshot shown just where the markets closed on Monday?

  2. Yes, you can see the time at the far right of the graphic 17:58 is 6pm Monday.

    But the rest of the world is in rally mode, and the US should see a strong opening.

    I’ll update them after the futures reopen at 6am

  3. Pantmaker says:

    Cash gets put to work as cash is retired…it’s always the same number. Every buy has a sell. Yin and Yang.

    I’m guessing we get a nice red day today. This is the theater of the absurd.


  4. dougc says:

    It looks like political kabuki, a lot of posturing and preening and not accomplishing much. If this solves our fiscal problems then we didn’t have a problem to begin with.
    So Obama turns down a republican plan to raise 800 B by limiting deductions by the rich and opts for a plan that raises 600 B and raises taxes on anyone drawing a pay check…..Who says Obama isn’t a great negotiator.
    I expect the budgets cuts to be similair, backloaded and creative….one floated by Obama involves the savings resulting from the Fed buying debt, the interest payment are remitted to the treasury. By this logic the fed should buy all of the outstanding debt, we might have a surplus.

  5. PeterR says:

    AAPL at EMA(409) and 500 support (400 in Frankfurt) is as close to a “no brainer” here as one can expect to get. Sell-off from 700 in pre-cliff insanity is likely over — to be replaced by cliff-delayed Santa Rally IMO.

    AAPL’s rise from here could take away the breath IMO.

    Now on Donner, Blitzen and Ritholtz!

  6. number2son says:

    dougc … that 800B plan relies on yet another magical mathematical invention for which politicians are famous – in this case, dynamic scoring. La, la, la, la, la, la …

    In fact, Biden gave away too much – they should have started at $100K and held firm at $250K.

  7. VennData says:

    “… After all the noise, the Cliff was exposed as the sham it was: a fake deadline set up by politicians otherwise unmotivated to do their jobs…”


    There were 151 No votes from the GOP plus Presidential Teahadist Marco Rubio on the Senate side. He’s sealed his fate for 2016. C’ya.

    Obama has split the GOP, killed the stupid Mitch McConnell-created Fiscal-cliff “Crisis” and restored sanity as a point-of-view for fiscal policy.

    Here’s the take-away, when GOP nuts like Reagan and Bush promise tax cuts, WITHOUT spending cuts: Run, don’t walk to the nearest Democratic candidate. We finally as a nation did that last November, Hooray for America. You’re growing up.

    The House GOP sitting there demanding cuts immediately is laughable given how they cut taxes without cutting spending as a matter of policy under Reagan and Bush. When a nation pays 19-20% of GDP in taxes, and one party forces that down to 15-16% without cuts, who is the problem?

    The GOP is comical, split, and weak. There are a lot of NFL head-coaching positions open. Go do something useful GOP and teach boys how to bash into each other, let the Democrats govern.

  8. Concerned Neighbour says:

    I guess Friday’s massive rally didn’t price it in yet. We need an even more massive rally today. Efficient markets indeed.

    Operation “pump without regard to fundamentals” continues apace. It will be shocking if we see a single downtick all day. See the first trading day of last year for today’s playbook.

    It really is the theatre of the absurd. Soon AMZN will be considered a value stock.

  9. gordo365 says:

    I’m preparing to sell this rally.

  10. AHodge says:

    still cant get with long us except for specialty

    id rather be long emerging latin america and japan
    the latter surge may be mostly done but im still in nomura a beaurtiful thing
    my europe shorts havent paid much yet but i think it early

    For US the stock market seasonals turn noticeably adverse from a plus in 4Q
    econ with payroll tax reversion slower export followthrough and more cloff headachesmay be not much above zerofor first quarter
    unless there is a business confidence hiring rebound
    without that we can get some less than 100k payroll numbers
    my guess is there is not much pent up uncertainty hiring deferral

  11. Madison531 says:

    I don’t know about you but as a member of the 99% that 2% increase in payroll tax is actually going to sting a bit (on top of real decreases in income over the last decade and significantly higher inflation in my actual purchases vs a “basket of goods”). Oh well, I’m sure I’ll benefit from the trickle down…