My morning reads:
• Dow 14K 2nd time around (NYP) see also Lipper Fund Flows: Equity Mutual Fund Flows Hit Levels Unseen in Nearly 12 Years (Alpha Now)
• Suckers or saviors? Small investors buy up stocks (MarketWatch)
• Investors face end of big US bond returns (FT.com)
• Bernanke Voiced Alarm Over Credibility of Ratings Firms (Bloomberg) see also Controversial New Theory: S&P Got A Few Ratings Wrong (Dealbreaker)
• Confessions of a Corporate Spy (Inc)
• Platinum, Palladium Surge on Supply Concerns (WSJ)
• S&P Analyst Joked of Bringing Down the House Before Crash (Bloomberg) see also S.& P. E-Mails on Mortgage Crisis Show Alarm and Gallows Humor (DealBook)
• A Dose of Narcissism Can Be Useful (Scientific American)
• The NRA’s Enemies List (NRA-ILA)
• about.me goes independent (about.me)
What are you reading?
Earnings and Revenue Beat Rates by Sector
Source: Bespoke
Category: Financial Press
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
Corporate insiders are aggressively selling their shares as Ma & Pa are rushing back into stocks.
For the week that ended last Friday insiders were selling more than nine shares of their firms’ stock for every one that they were buying.
I suppose insiders are selling in anticipation of the flood of capital spending they are going to unleash as they economy starts to pick-up for reason they can see as insiders.
Who will turn out right, the Davo big money bulls and Ma & Pa rushing in, or insiders rushing out?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/insiders-now-aggressively-bearish-2013-02-06
thanks good S@P coverage here including Bloomberg print online
Bloomberg TV, disappointingly has been abysmal
esp Tome Keene and Sarah Eisen
who “scores” big interview w the S&P defense lawyer Abrams
also cites approvingly from many talking heads what looks like wall st groupthink
“its political witch hunt tempest in a teapot
why single out S&P?
everybody sends crazy emails la blah
who knew”
the only interviewed guy on the other side
this AM from Better Markets, not bad but a technical lawyer
those 2 and 2 others gang up, overtalk, play more Abrams tapes than live guest
and stuff him
FT this AM a good article
Ratings from credit crisis return to haunt agencies
fortunately wall street traders with actual positions seem to take this more seriously
than the Wall st talking heads
all of Mcgraw Hill down 22%
all of Moodies down almost as much
apparently the actual money sees trouble
also doesn’t think S&P will be alone in its persecution /prosecution for long
Fiscal multipliers of government spending are bigger when the economy is in a slump:
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2013/02/evolving_views.html
Yet another reason to do the repairs and investments in infrastructure now rather than later. So where is that jobs bill we have needed for the past 2 years?
More crony capitalistic behavior.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-06/bp-s-u-s-defense-contracts-doubled-since-year-of-gulf-oil-spill.html
“So God Made a Banker”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/so-god-made-a-banker-2013-02-06?link=MW_story_featstor
Brett Arends says it should be read in Paul Harvey’s voice, but I think Tim Geithner’s squeaky voice would be more appropriate.
The MarketWatch article about small investors buying (#2 in the list above), and Mark Hulbert’s article about insider selling (link above via mad97123) combine for an unusual same-day mention of two indicators which would be interesting to state as a ratio:
Insider selling volume vs. small investor buying volume
Nothing magical about using “volume” as the measure, I guess cost value would do OK, or any other apples-to-apples parameter.
My hunch is that this ratio anticipates stock market moves? Maybe it lags the market? In either case, the relationship would be interesting to see on one chart.
In Investors face end of big US bond returns we read how “Thanks to the unprecedented actions of the US central bank to push down interest rates – a bond-buying spree by the Fed that raised bond prices and gave investors a big capital gain on top of the interest income they receive on their holdings.”
The problem here, as with all the MSM statements about how much stock investor have “made” during this rally is the fact that these are UNREALIZED capital gains. Those gain will vanish as soon as people start to try and realize them. No different from a bank run – the money is not really there, only the first few realize those gains.
Cheap mid-west oil needs to take the train to get to the East Coast:
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-02-06/north-dakotas-bakken-oil-finally-hits-the-east-coast#p1
We have a third-world distribution system for energy in the US. Railing oil from one end of the country to the other is ridiculous, as is months of power outages from a storm in the biggest city in the country, and an inability to supply reliable electricity to the biggest event in the country that was planned for a couple of years in advance.
If people are worried about the pollution potential of oil in a new pipeline, just wait until a 100-car train loaded with oil derails into a river from a 100-year old unmaintained bridge. (I have been under several railroad bridges – very scary places to be when you see entire beams rotted out).
BR, re: that chart, are those beats relative to the invariably ratcheted down a couple weeks prior to release estimates, or say estimates from three months ago? I’m sure you know the playbook better than I: lower estimates a few weeks before release to make for an easier beat and better press.
Enjoying Kevin Spacey in the NetFlix original program of “House of Cards”. Spacey is terrific and the show
is fast moving, smart and original.
Spacey was on Letterman the other night discussing it, and how they dropped (released) the entire season
up front rather than making people wait.
“It’s how people watch TV now”. “We think if we give the customer what they want, how they want it, and when they want it, they won’t steal from you”. He’s right and NetFlix is on to something here.
The dark side of land grabs.
http://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2013/01/top-land-grabbing-countries
Thoughts on blogging for BR
http://studiotendra.com/2013/02/05/33-observations-on-the-year-2012/
SEC rules affecting SP lawsuit?
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-02-05/s-and-p-lawsuit-undermined-by-sec-rules-impeding-ratings-competition#r=bloomberg
Oh and patent reform anyone?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/05/patent-reform-economists_n_2623537.html
and now for some thing different. the worlds smallest car
http://www.chron.com/cars/article/Critic-left-screaming-after-driving-world-s-4256409.php
is this in your future?
http://www.wired.com/business/2013/02/for-24-billion-michael-dell-has-bought-two-more-years/
In re Dell
Krugman fighting the good fight of beating down zombie lies and other evidence free “knowledge”:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/06/things-serious-people-believe/
Amazing how investigative journalists can be made to repeat myths with no evidence. Businesses do not fail to respond when there is demand, and they do not invest unless there is demand – otherwise they would quickly be out of business. How can that be so hard to understand?