My morning reads:

• The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away (Street Talk Live) see also Insiders now aggressively bearish (MarketWatch)
The bullshit about uncertainty: How a Nation Got Snookered by a Phony Narrative (Bloomberg)
• Federal Reserve Hit by Hackers (PCMAG)
• Money Changes Everything (NYT)
• Time for Tiny Fees on HFT: The .03% Solution (ProPublica) or Revive the Financial Transaction Tax (DealBook)
• RBS: “Just amazing how libor fixing can make you so much money” (FT Alphaville)
• Burning Down the House of S&P (Rational Irrationality) see also State Lawsuits Could Add to S&P Exposure (WSJ)
• EVERYBODY HATES BONDS: Jim Rogers Joins Bill Gross Warning on Treasuries (Bloomberg)
• Is Facebook over? (Salon) see also Twitter on Route to Maturity—Maybe IPO (WSJ)
• ‘Bailout’: Neil Barofsky’s Adventures in Groupthink City (TAIBBLOG)

What are you reading?

 

Shades of ’80s for Japan’s Stocks

Source: WSJ

Category: Financial Press

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

25 Responses to “10 Thursday AM Reads”

  1. Petey Wheatstraw says:

    Facebook is a one company dotcom bubble and bust.

  2. DSS10 says:

    RE “The bullshit about uncertainty: How a Nation Got Snookered by a Phony Narrative”: Who even listens to the Business Roundtable? They are nothing but empty suits and sock puppets. At least with the Chamber of Commerce you could say that it was an organization that was corrupted, but the Business Roundtable on the other hand has never had a charter or a mandate to be a legitimate organization. Listening to them is like getting real estate advice from NAR.

  3. Cooter says:

    The current bull/bear stock/bond debate on this blog is fascinating. I can’t recall a time when the analysis from this blog’s audience has focussed so much on sentiment and expected outcomes based on previous market inflection points.

  4. PeterR says:

    This column on 1987:

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/10/revisiting-the-1987-crash/

    was linked here:

    http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/02/07/jim-rogers-joins-bond-bears-doug-kass-gets-87-feeling/

    where Doug Kass is quoted:
    _____________________________

    “Meanwhile, Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners Management told CNBC on Wednesday economic fundamentals would eventually undercut equities and that the S&P 500 would be more accurately valued 80 or 90 points below its current level. Read: 7 gut checks before the open.

    “I would raise cash. I’m getting the Summer of 1987 feeling in the U.S. equity market, which measn we’re headed for a sharp fall,” Kass said, adding that he’s holding his highest net short position of the year. Check out The Big Picture blog.” [2/7/13 -- link above in this comment]
    ___________________________________

  5. b_thunder says:

    I’m reading this:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-sell-floating-rate-notes-021900513.html

    a.k.a. the parting gift from Timy Geithner!

    IMHO, the TBTFs are preparing for the End of the Bond Bull Market. The fixed-rate treasurys will soon become what CDOs were in 2007/08 – the assets that the banks will be dumping onto the “muppets.”

    In addition, the article has a few very telling passages explaining who in reality runs the People’s Treasury (which, by the way, runs the IRS)

    “The committee, which is composed of executives from some of Wall Street’s largest banks and bond investors, said more than half of the industry preferred using repo rates” – what the bankers want, the bankers will get.

    And

    “The Treasury advisory group said it is hopeful that the first auction of floating-rate notes would come in November, though Treasury officials said only that they are shooting for sometime within the next year.” – well, duh, of course the “treasury officials” wouldn’t know – they’re not in charge. The bankers are!

  6. PeterR says:

    I guess the users of Fa(r)ceBook are finally getting it.

    Wait until some juicy privacy invasions become public.

  7. PeterR says:

    Speaking of Fa(r)ceBook users leaving in droves, interesting article on the “Rats of New York” — hey could that be the title to Gueitner’s new book?.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/07/nyregion/after-storm-rats-creep-inland.html?ref=nyregion

    Rats driven out by Sandy have simply moved on and found new food and shelter, doh!

    What will the Fa(rats)ceBook users do next?

  8. No surprise here:

    D. Gropper, J. Jahera Jr. J. C. Park, Does it help to have friends in high places? Bank stock performance and congressional committee chairmanships, Journal of Banking & Finance, 30 January 2013

    “We find that banks headquartered in states where a Senator or member of the House of Representatives serves as the chairman on their respective banking committee in Congress outperform banks headquartered in other states. In addition, we find that this “chair effect” is more pronounced when the committee chairs are strongly aligned with other politicians in Congress, when they are more experienced, and when banks are clustered in the home state, suggesting that the potential benefits generated from chairmanship are in more demand.”

  9. VennData says:

    DSS10,

    Agree, ‘cept I would marry the Business Rountable, after one frollick under their round table them without a pre-nup before I listened to anything the NAR said.

    Baum’s article should be a case study for all finance:

    “…Republicans in Congress claimed that businesses were sitting on cash, unwilling to invest until they knew what their tax rate would be next year (as if tax rates are ever set in stone). What’s more, raising taxes on “job creators” would bring the U.S. economy to its knees… Uncertainty didn’t carry much weight in the fourth quarter. In fact, it looks like we got snookered by a euphemism that was more an excuse to prevent an undesirable political outcome (tax increases) than a reflection of intent. While Congress dawdled until the very last minute to avert the fiscal cliff, businesses seized the day and went about their business…”

    Up ten percent since I ignored the GOP Media Machine. Sorry for those of you who listen.

  10. DRR says:

    “Twitter, a private company, doesn’t disclose revenue or profit. ”

    You start filling tweets with advertiser twits and you will alienate your user base. Twitter, like Facebook is just another pedestrian tech company that will go into obliteration if it goes to an IPO.

  11. James Cameron says:

    > see also Insiders now aggressively bearish

    “Overall, however, the market fell. On average over the month following each prior occasion when the sell-to-buy ratio got this high, the broad market fell by 2.1% — as measured by the Wilshire 5000 total-return index.”

    Which isn’t a whole lot . . . you’d really have to see more data.

  12. Bill in SF says:

    “New encryption app set to revolutionize privacy and freak out the feds…

    “Back in October, the startup tech firm Silent Circle ruffled governments’ feathers with a “surveillance-proof” smartphone app to allow people to make secure phone calls and send texts easily. Now, the company is pushing things even further—with a groundbreaking encrypted data transfer app that will enable people to send files securely from a smartphone or tablet at the touch of a button. (For now, it’s just being released for iPhones and iPads, though Android versions should come soon.) That means photographs, videos, spreadsheets, you name it—sent scrambled from one person to another in a matter of seconds.”

    http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2013/02/silent_circle_s_latest_app_democratizes_encryption_governments_won_t_be.single.html

  13. willid3 says:

    giving up on US workers…in the US???

    http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2013/02/07/immigration-reform-visas/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+fortunefinance+%28Fortune+Finance:+Hedge+Funds,+Markets,+Mergers+&+Acquisitions,+Private+Equity,+Venture+Capital,+

    maybe one reason your health care is so high? and your taxes too? some not paying any at all? and stashing 6 million while in bankruptcy?
    http://crimeblog.dallasnews.com/2013/02/colleyville-pharmacist-who-hoarded-cash-in-home-convicted-of-tax-evasion-in-federal-court.html/#more-38689

    and another reason for high costs? seems that doctors can become beholden to some drug companies, because they got paid. seems to make it so that some will proscribe certain treatments even if they dont work as well as others or are more dangerous than others.

    http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2013/02/what-the-sunshine-act-means-for-health-care-transparency/272926/

  14. romerjt says:

    reading “The World Until Yesterday” Or What we can learn from traditional societies.

  15. maddog2020 says:

    Through Facebook, I learned which people I knew in high school 20 years ago (I wouldn’t necessarily place them in the true “friend” category) are bible-thumpers, Obama birthers, and gun nuts. That has to be worth something, right?

    Now, if I could only figure out how to monetize that info…

  16. willid3 says:

    and our favorite topic…MERS and titles

    seems to have cropped up in Texas

    http://www.statesman.com/news/news/local/mortgage-corporation-williamson-county-audit-misle/nWH9J/

  17. willid3 says:

    i guess some one in the media actually noticed. uncertainty is normal. the only real certainty that exists i death. beyond that no much is certain. while taxes used to be a certainty, it seems that many have figured out that they can game the politicians, and get that reduced to uncertainty. and some may have finally noticed that those we gave large tax cuts to, aren’t the job creators they claim to be, imagine that

  18. willid3 says:

    the robots are coming the robots are coming

    http://www.ibtimes.com/next-generation-military-robots-drawn-nature-photos-1063856

    and we made them

  19. formerlawyer says:

    @Bill in SF

    Color me sceptical. I remember the 80′s when the US Government was promoting FIPS (now FIPS 46-3) knowing that the NSA had backdoored the standard.

    If it is substantively unbreakable, does the Phil Zimmerman (PGP) investigation (eventually dropped) ring a bell?

  20. rd says:

    I loved that they used Boeing as an example of potential impacts of “uncertainty” as they have certainly been a victim of it recently.

    Now the article was about national fiscal policy uncertainty but it turns out the uncertainty of much smaller things like whether or not you have designed airplanes that are actually able to fly safely play a much bigger role in your company’s future than anything Congress is doing.

    After all, we do have certainty at the national level. We know for sure that every time a fiscal decision is required in Washington, Congress and the Administration will turn it into Armageddon with potential government shutdowns and simply come up with another solution that punts three-quarters of the issues down to the next crisis point three months later. However, in the end. the changes won’t be anywhere near as large as the rhetoric.

  21. Derektheunder says:

    Re: “The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away”

    Thanks for linking that, Barry. Excellent assessment, with the exception IMO, of recommending rotating some money into bonds at this time. Great article.