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Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

4 Responses to “As Rally Nears Fourth Anniversary, Are Stocks Headed Up or Down?”

  1. jnkowens says:

    Up. Over the next 30 years.
    But no durable upside until we get PE compression. That could take months (crash) or years, but my money will not re-enter the market until that happens. Once it does, I’m all in.
    I may be wrong and i may be stupid, but at least i have a discipline to follow.

  2. DRR says:

    Just a quick review of the stock data from 1900 shows the best returns have come from the old adage of buy low, sell high. Doesn’t matter if we are in a bull or bear market. Cheap is cheap and expensive is expensive and this market is leaning towards the expensive side. Also this rally feels cooked and leveraged while the real economy is suffering from malaise. Most past rallies have concurred with strong economic growth and I think this rally needs to stall a bit to let the real economy catch up.

    I’ll play the market but I sure as hell won’t buy long into it…

  3. Frilton Miedman says:

    If you simply trace the DOW chart since inception in 1896, it has a long term mean avg annual gain of about 5% – Giving this blog adage – http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/08/bonds-for-the-long-run-2/

    That mean would be about 12340 this year.

    These secular over/under periods are prolonged as Barry mentions , interesting to note these secular over/under deviations usually max at no more than +100% & -50% of the mean. (with exceptions, such as 1933 where it fell to less than 20% that mean)

    Simply observing these periods on a chart isn’t enough in my opinion, you need to look into the mechanics of supply/demand, wages, debt & inflation – noting that consumer debt in conjunction with wealth disparity resembled the Great Depression as of 2007 to now.

    The most influential factor for these periods appears to be political extremes, over-reactions and it’s effect on fiscal/Fed policy, most often what I’d call political terrorism promoted by influential wealthy that serves to backfire on investor confidence – and periods of over-reaction fro the the side (mindful, top marginal rate were 90% for decades after

    In the 1930′s, right wing accusations of “Socialism” was constantly in the headlines, Deja-Vu All over again.

    I have a suspicion we may not go so far into the reactionary opposite extremes we saw in the 40′s through 70′s, but this requires the right to back off and grow up…greed isn’t good, that’s just a line from a Movie.

  4. Frilton Miedman says:

    EDIT ” – and periods of over-reaction fro the the side (mindful, top marginal rate were 90% for decades after ”

    Intended to write “and periods of over-reaction froM the OtheR side “