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Forecast of War and Unrest

Posted By Washingtons Blog On February 12, 2013 @ 1:30 am In Think Tank,War/Defense | Comments Disabled

Kyle Bass, Larry Edelson, Charles Nenner, James Dines, Nouriel Roubini, Jim Rogers, Mrac Faber and Jim Rickards Warn or War

We’re already at war in numerous countries all over the world [1].

But some topic economic advisers warn that economic factors could lead to a new world war.

Kyle Bass writes [2]:

Trillions of dollars of debts [3] will be restructured and millions of financially prudent savers will lose large percentages of their real purchasing power at exactly the wrong time in their lives. Again, the world will not end, but the social fabric of the profligate nations will be stretched and in some cases torn. Sadly, looking back through economic history, all too often war is the manifestation of simple economic entropy played to its logical conclusion. We believe that war is an inevitable consequence of the current global economic situation.

Larry Edelson wrote an email to subscribers entitled “What the “Cycles of War” are saying for 2013″, which states:

Since the 1980s, I’ve been studying the so-called “cycles of war” — the natural rhythms that predispose societies to descend into chaos, into hatred, into civil and even international war.

I’m certainly not the first person to examine these very distinctive patterns in history. There have been many before me, notably, Raymond Wheeler, who published the most authoritative chronicle of war ever, covering a period of 2,600 years of data.

However, there are very few people who are willing to even discuss the issue right now. And based on what I’m seeing, the implications could be absolutely huge in 2013.

Former Goldman Sachs technical analyst Charles Nenner – who has made some big accurate calls, and counts major hedge funds [3], banks, brokerage houses, and high net worth individuals as clients – says [4] there will be “a major war starting at the end of 2012 to 2013”, which will drive the Dow to 5,000.

Veteran investor adviser James Dines forecast [5] a war is epochal as World Wars I and II, starting in the Middle East.

Nouriel Roubini has warned [6] of war with Iran.   And when Roubini was asked:

Where does this all lead us? The risk in your view is of another Great Depression. But even respectable European politicians are talking not just an economic depression but possibly even worse consequences over the next decade or so. Bearing European history in mind, where does this take us?

He responded [7]:

In the 1930s, because we made a major policy mistake, we went through financial instability, defaults, currency devaluations, printing money, capital controls, trade wars, populism, a bunch of radical, populist, aggressive regimes coming to power from Germany to Italy to Spain to Japan, and then we ended up with World War II.

Now I’m not predicting World War III but seriously, if there was a global financial crisis after the first one, then we go into depression: the political and social instability in Europe and other advanced economies is going to become extremely severe. And that’s something we have to worry about.

Billionaire investor Jim Rogers notes [8]:

A continuation of bailouts in Europe could ultimately spark [3] another world war, says international investor Jim Rogers.

***

“Add debt, the situation gets worse, and eventually it just collapses. Then everybody is looking for scapegoats. Politicians blame foreigners, and we’re in World War II or World War whatever.”

Marc Faber says [9] that the American government will start new wars in response to the economic crisis:

We’re in the middle of a global currency war [12] – i.e. a situation where nations all compete to devalue their currencies the most in order to boost exports.  And Brazilian president-elect Rousseff said [13] in 2010:

The last time there was a series of competitive devaluations … it ended in world war two.

Jim Rickards agrees [14]:

Currency wars lead to trade wars, which often lead to hot wars. In 2009, Rickards participated in the Pentagon’s first-ever “financial” war games. While expressing confidence in America’s ability to defeat any other nation-state in battle, Rickards says the U.S. could get dragged into “asymmetric warfare,” if currency wars lead to rising inflation and global economic uncertainty.

As does Jim Rogers [15]:

Trade wars always lead to wars.

And given that many influential economists wrongly believe [16] that war is good for the economy … many are overtly [17] or quietly pushing for war.

Many More Warn of Unrest

Numerous economic advisers also warn of crash-induced unrest, including:


Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/02/forecast-of-war-and-unrest/

URLs in this post:

[1] all over the world: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/01/the-war-on-terror-spreads-to-africa-u-s-sending-troops-to-35-african-nations.html

[2] writes: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-17/kyle-bass-falacies-such-mmt-are-leading-sheep-slaughter-and-we-believe-war-inevitabl

[3] debts: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/11/top-economic-advisers-forecast-widespread-war.html#

[4] says: http://www.businessinsider.com/former-goldman-sachs-analyst-charles-nenner-major-war-2012-dow-5000-2011-3

[5] forecast: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/02/www.marketwatch.com/story/dines-prophesies-war-2012-05-28?Link=obinsite

[6] warned: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9408062/Nouriel-Roubini-sticks-to-perfect-storm-in-2013-prediction.html

[7] responded: http://www.emergingmarkets.org/Article/2906430/Interview-with-Nouriel-Roubini.html

[8] notes: http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/rogers-Europe-bailouts-war/2012/06/22/id/443184

[9] says: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/08/marc-faber-says-america-will-launch-more-wars-to-distract-from-bad-economy.html

[10] “The next thing the government will do to distract the attention of the people on bad economic conditions is they’ll start a war somewhere.”: http://www.prisonplanet.com/the-alex-jones-show-l-i-v-e-june-23rd-with-marc-faber.html

[11] “If the global economy doesn’t recover, usually people go to war.”: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aa4KTmib46Uw&refer=asia

[12] global currency war: https://www.google.com/search?q=%22currency+war%22&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a

[13] said: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/326a6d62-e83d-11df-8995-00144feab49a.html

[14] agrees: http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/next-global-crisis-currency-wars-already-begun-rickards-142124909.html

[15] Jim Rogers: http://rt.com/usa/news/china-trade-currency-bill-053/

[16] wrongly believe: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/02/debunking-the-myth-that-war-is-good-for-the-economy-once-and-for-all.html

[17] overtly: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123008280526532053.html

[18] World Trade Organization: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gpC1Q4gXJfp6EwMl1rMGrmA_a7ZA

[19] International Monetary Fund: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/dec/16/imf-financial-crisis

[20] World Bank: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8066037.stm

[21] Niall Ferguson: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/02/web.archive.org/web/20090228062302/http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090223.wferguson0223/BNStory/crashandrecovery/home?

[22] John Williams: http://www.shadowstats.com/article/292

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