Category: Think Tank

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

5 Responses to “Government Debt and Macroeconomic Activity: A Predictive Analysis for Advanced Economies”

  1. Codyboy says:

    Barry,

    Do you really understand any of this BS when they start talking about “Recursive demeaning has been proposed in the literature as a solution to the aforementioned finite sample bias in a panel data setting (seePhillips and Moon(2000)).”

    Does anyone in Congress? Does anyone outside of some basement office at MIT?

  2. Skip the math and the academic blather — just read the abstract, introduction and conclusion

  3. jd351 says:

    So PK is right and the VSP are wrong, Again!!!

  4. Frilton Miedman says:

    Per BR’s suggestion -

    “… We find that higher debt relative to GDP is not a statistically significant predictor of subsequent economic growth in a linear framework. We also do not find evidence for a common debt to GDP threshold that is economically and statistically significant. However, when we split countries into two groups with respect to their average debt ratios, we find that there is a negative threshold effect for the low average debt countries and a significant negative linear predictive relationship for countries that experienced relatively higher levels of debt. We do not find evidence for increasing debt intolerance at higher levels of debt to GDP”

    This then begs the quesion as to why the right has resorted to histrionic means to invoke public panic over debt.

    Me thinks wealth preservation for campaign donors.

  5. Frilton Miedman says:

    Per BR’s suggestion -

    “… We find that higher debt relative to GDP is not a statistically significant predictor of subsequent economic growth in a linear framework. We also do not find evidence for a common debt to GDP threshold that is economically and statistically significant. However, when we split countries into two groups with respect to their average debt ratios, we find that there is a negative threshold effect for the low average debt countries and a significant negative linear predictive relationship for countries that experienced relatively higher levels of debt. We do not find evidence for increasing debt intolerance at higher levels of debt to GDP”

    This then begs the question as to why the right has resorted to histrionic means to invoke public panic over debt.

    Me thinks wealth preservation for campaign donors.