Our weekly installment of succinct summation of the week’s events for February 8 2013:

 

Positives:

1) Rally continues, with S&P 500 hitting highest levels since December 2007
2) Institute for Supply Management said services sector index was 55.2 last month.
3) European Central Bank left its main lending unchanged at 0.75%
4) Initial jobless claims fell by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 366,000
5) MBA said refi apps rose 3.5% and purchase apps were up 2.2% as maybe in part due to fence sitter effect as mortgage rates rise to 3.72% from 3.67%, the highest since Sept.
6) Market internals look strong with small caps and transports breaking out to all time highs.
7) Consumer borrowing in the U.S. rose in December for a 5th straight month; Non-revolving credit surged by the most in 11 years. Revolving debt (like credit cards), fell by $3.6 billion, the most since July.
8) The country’s trade gap narrowed to $38.5 billion  in December: Rise in exports + lower imports of oil pushed the U.S. trade deficit to its narrowest point in three years;
9) Newspapers are Not dead yet: For the past 6 out of the last 7 quarters, NYT had upside surprise;
10) The CBO expects the U.S. budget deficit to fall to $845 billion this year. This would be the first reading under $1 trillion in five years.
11) 18 retailers tracked by Thomson Reuters posted 5.8% growth in January same-store sales;

Negatives:

1) Commerce Dept said factory orders rose by 1.8% in December, below 2.3% consensus
2) New orders index, a forward-looking measure, was at its lowest since April 2012
3) With S&P 500 trading near multi-year highs, individual investors are becoming increasingly bearish. American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), bullish sentiment dropped from 48.04% down to 42.77%. Sentiment has now dropped ~10% past 2 weeks.
4) Non-Farm Labor Productivity fell by a seasonally adjusted 2% in Q4, according to BLS
5) Average U.S. price for a gallon of regular gasoline stood at $3.555. Gasoline prices have climbed every day for the past 21 days.(source: AAA)
6) Berlusconi is accused of dangerous propoganda, with 3 weeks to go in the Italian elections. Bond yields nearing 6 week high.
7) Congressional Budget Office assumes unemployment rates of 8.0 percent in 2013 and 7.6 percent in 2014, and GDP growth of 1.4 percent in 2013.
8) January Non Defense Capital Goods ex-aircraft — the core CapEx component of Durable Goods — was revised to a decline of .3% vs the 1st read of up .2%.
9) From a Contrarian perspective standpoint, Institutional Investor had Bullish newsletter writers on the rise to 54.7 while Bears fell to 21.1. The spread between the two has not been this wide since June ’11 and the late 2011 Summer 18% correction.

Category: Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

6 Responses to “Succinct Summation of Weeks Events February 8 2013”

  1. louis says:

    1.Rally continues, with S&P 500 hitting highest levels since December 2007

    Should this be in the Negatives also? Good luck to all back East.

  2. catclub says:

    Well. when gas prices nose dived in 2008 from over 4 to under two dollars, I do not think that should have rated as good news. It was primarily an effect of a bad economy.

    Whenever gas goes up, it seems to indicate a better economy.

    ~~~

    BR: When oil ran up to $150, was that due to the good economy, or inflation and a weak currency?

  3. [...] – Succinct Summation Of The Week’s Events (Barry Ritholtz, The Big Picture) [...]

  4. VennData says:

    “…Business investment isn’t actually all that low; you expect it to be relatively weak in a weak economy with excess capacity, but in fact it’s about as high a share of GDP as in the middle Bush years. What’s really out of line with previous experience is the level of corporate profits, which is arguably serving as a kind of sinkhole for purchasing power…”

    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/09/profits-and-business-investment/#postComment

    Corporations are investing. The issue is that they have some much extra capital accumulating that to invest that, they would have to upgrade their investment ideas. That is what creates growth, re-investment of all that new capital.

    Nothing is a sure thing. The US problem is the timidity of corporate investment above and beyond what they normally do. if they want to be the vanguards and get government off our backs, then they need to GROW their investments. Now.

    Michael Dells is doing just that.

  5. Willy2 says:

    What a lot of folks fail to grasp is that a shrinking Trade Deficit in combinatio with a rising budget deficit is actually VERY bad news for the US.