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NFP Day: Consensus 165k

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On March 8, 2013 @ 8:21 am In Employment | Comments Disabled

A quick note on today’s employment situation report:

Consensus of 90 economists surveyed by Bloomberg is for additional 165,000 workers for February (January was 157,000 gain) . The jobless rate is expected to hold steady at 7.9%, although a potential improvement would not surprise me.

Note that ADP numbers were very good: 198k private sector jobs added in February, almost 20k above consensus. January was revised upwards by another 23,ooo, making the private sector gains for the 1st month of the year 215k. Consider that ADP 2 month average to start the year of 207k compares quite favorably¬†versus the 2012 average of 144k. (Note ADP’s correlation with BLS is spotty at best)

As always, I am watching Hours worked, Wages, and Temp help. This month, watch the revisions as well.

My guess? I have no opinion . . .


Employment situation report [1] released at 8:30am



UPDATE: Payrolls added 236k; Unemployment falls to 7.7%

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[1] Employment situation report: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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