The S&P 500 rally dating back to March 2009 is the 6th best rally since 1929:


click for larger tables

Source: Merrill Lynch


Full tables of past Bull and Bear markets after the jump . . .


S&P 500 Bull; & Bear Markets of 20% or More:


Big Bulls


Big Bears

The S&P 500 rally from Mar 09 is the 6th best rally since 1929
March 7, 2013
Merrill Lynch

Category: Markets

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9 Responses to “Current Market Rally is 6th Best Since 1929”

  1. b.remson says:

    I wonder if there is a correlation in % Change/Duration between the previous bull/bear market and the market following (i.e. if the preceeding bull/bear was short in duration and high % change then the proceeding bull/bear would have the same short duration and high % change etc.)

  2. BigD173 says:

    Would it be possible to differentiate between rallies that occurred during generally accepted secular bear markets and rallies that occurred during generally accepted secular bull markets?

    If so, I think that might better place the ongoing rally in its proper context.

  3. DHM says:

    Seems disingenuous, since the 20% threshold for the bear just misses the decline that occurred fall, 2011.

  4. GeorgeBurnsWasRight says:

    So far in our history, the long-term path of the market has been upward.

    Therefore, the larger the decline, the larger the rally which happens after the decline. The 07-08 decline was the second-worst since 1929. So I’d expect the recovery to be one of the strongest also.

    I guess the question is how much the size of the preceding bull affects the size of the decline which follows it. There’s feedback in both directions, I’d guess.

  5. mad97123 says:

    Assume that the S&P rockets to 1700 non-stop. Then we get the average 35% bear – we’re looking at 1100. Assume we get the minimum 20% – we’re back to 1350 .

    It still seems like there will be better times ahead to get agressively long.

  6. I agree that there are better times to buy ahead, in fact I think this time is coming at the end of 2013 based on historical stock market cycles.

    My 17.6 year stock market cycle has a low in 2013 (not lower than 2009), a higher low in 2015 and another higher low in 2018 before the start of a glorious new bull market to 2035.



  7. Also notice how many of these large fast rallies were cyclical bull markets within a secular bear market. That is what we have now in my opinion.


  8. [...] This Bull Market Fundamentally Driven? (A Look at PE Expansion) This post over at The Big Picture Blog which had a listing of Bull markets of 20% or more without a 20% [...]

  9. [...] • This is now the 6th, about to become the 5th, best rally in market history. (Merrill Lynch) [...]