Click to enlarge


Kudos to Albert Edwards for ignoring Career Risk and making a fairly outrageous call.

I question whether this sort of analysis is brave or stubborn or brave (or both) — but more importantly what clients are supposed to do with it.

The rest of Albert’s call: The  S&P500 is going to fall 75% to 450, the Sub-1% US 10 year, and Gold > $10,000.





US bond yields are still in a pronounced technical downtrend. My good friend and famous chartist Nick Glydon once said that the most important tool in investing was a ruler. My own view is that US 10y will break below 1% as global recession beckons, but even if I am wrong, a move back up to 3¼% will not break the bull market downtrend of yields (see chart below).








We still forecast 450 S&P, sub-1% US 10y yields, and gold above $10,000, April 25, 2013
Albert Edwards
Société Générale, Global Strategy Weekly, April 25, 2013

Category: Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Gold & Precious Metals

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

6 Responses to “Albert Edwards: 10 Year Bond Yield Heading Below 1%”

  1. rd says:

    It is unlikely that the current trend will break until the current generation of political and financial sector leadership is out the door on a global basis. That will probably take at least 5 years.

  2. constantnormal says:

    If one projects these trading ranges for the 10- and 30-year Treasuries, when do they hit zero?
    I consider the 1-years to be already there.

    And then what does the Fed buy next? bankster corporate bonds? Munis?

  3. [...] “paper” gold, and the dollar. My friend Albert Edward’s reiterated call for S&P500 at 450 — with the SPX kjissing 1600 — has all the hallmarks of a classic [...]

  4. ottnott says:

    Rulers don’t know that a nominal rate of 0.0% has any special significance.

  5. gordonhildyard says:

    Was indication given of when SPX will move to 450? ( quarters or years from now?)

  6. [...] Sachs, “paper” gold, the shorts and the dollar. My friend Albert Edward’s reiterated call for S&P500 at 450 — with the SPX kissing 1600 — smacks of a classic non-admission of error. His preference is to [...]