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Albert Edwards: 10 Year Bond Yield Heading Below 1%
Posted By Barry Ritholtz On April 26, 2013 @ 1:30 am In Fixed Income/Interest Rates,Gold & Precious Metals | Comments Disabled
Kudos to Albert Edwards for ignoring Career Risk and making a fairly outrageous call.
I question whether this sort of analysis is brave or stubborn or brave (or both) — but more importantly what clients are supposed to do with it.
The rest of Albert’s call: The S&P500 is going to fall 75% to 450, the Sub-1% US 10 year, and Gold > $10,000.
US bond yields are still in a pronounced technical downtrend. My good friend and famous chartist Nick Glydon once said that the most important tool in investing was a ruler. My own view is that US 10y will break below 1% as global recession beckons, but even if I am wrong, a move back up to 3¼% will not break the bull market downtrend of yields (see chart below).
We still forecast 450 S&P, sub-1% US 10y yields, and gold above $10,000, April 25, 2013
Société Générale, Global Strategy Weekly, April 25, 2013
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