@TBPInvictus here:

Following up on my recent post on Correlation & Causation 101, I delved into various migratory and population estimate datasets at Census.gov. Fascinating stuff. [Note to self: Get a life.] As promised, I also called and corresponded with a contact at Census to be 100 percent certain my criticism of Mr. Moore and Mr. Laffer was well-founded. It was.

That said, I also came upon some neat infographics from Atlas Van Lines - a company that probably moves as many Americans (and Canadians, apparently) as any other.

Here’s their infographic on 2012 Household Moving Migration Patterns. Also, here’s an older link to the reasons we move (based on the exact Census data I wound up digging into that I’m sure Moore and Laffer ignored).


2012 Migration Patterns
2012 Migration Patterns by Atlas Van Lines

Back for a moment to Mssrs. Laffer and Moore, who cited Census as their source for this claim: “Among the 10 fastest-growing metro areas last year were Raleigh, Austin, Las Vegas, Orlando, Charlotte, Phoenix, Houston, San Antonio and Dallas.”

Census says otherwise. Moore and Laffer got one right; even the folks I contacted at Census had no idea WTF they were talking about. Draw your own conclusions.

Category: Data Analysis, Digital Media

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

6 Responses to “On the Move”

  1. YouthInAsia says:

    Jacksonville, NC a metro area? It’s Camp Lejuene which I imagine is growing from ongoing and continued BRACs from the 90s. Probably has exactly 0 to do with anything related to taxes, weather, etc.

    Not to defend Laffer (or really add anything to this discussion :D) but it looks like what they are calling metro areas are actual big cities and what the census is defining are metro areas are something much smaller.

    Invictus: You could be right that the difference is one of definition. However, Census is very clear in how it defines things: http://www.census.gov/population/metro/. It’s the responsibility of the author to be precise.

    • turkeyridge1 says:

      Interesting that Clarksville, Tn. is the location of Fort Campbell army base, home of the Screaming Eagles of the 101st Airborne. Maybe the high growth rate has something to do with army personnel movements.

  2. TerryC says:

    The Atlas Van Lines info, although useful, is just for moves by their company. I’m guessing they move mostly middle and upper class people who can afford a large moving company (or have an employer paying for it). I’m sure the vast number of people who move do so by themselves with their own resources. They may rent a U Haul or Ryder, or use a relatives pickup. Invictus, do you have any data on these types of moves?

    On the Census Bureau data, I am a geologist living in Odessa and working in Midland. The oil boom (nobody wants gas, just oil) is continuing it’s steady rise out here. Both cities have offical 2010 populations of about 100,000 each, but the total populations of the two counties (Midland and Ector) is probably close to 500,000 right now. The news media is usually all over North Dakota’s increasing oil production, but the Permian Basin is keeping up with them just fine.

    And as a resident of this area for 32 years, I am wondering when are all these new people here are going to finally go home!

    • CitizenWhy says:

      No longer than about 25 years, when the average winter temperature will be 115 degrees.

  3. Lyle says:

    One way that is tracked is by looking at the one way rates Uhaul charges, These reflect the traffic situation, if you want to take a truck to where a lot of trucks are going Uhaul charges more, and if you want to go to where there are more trucks leaving than coming they charge less. I don’t know if Uhaul has historical records available, but that would be a good source.

  4. FNG says:

    I think you should go deeper Invictus in your research. For example, 12 people moved to Newfoundland in 2012. The burning question is “Why?” Seriously, Newfies are, well…. different. And by the way Newfoundland is huge so 12 new individuals moving in is essentially irrelevant.

    Why not focus/take issue with something more meaningful…like the ridiculous justifications for CEO paychecks or the lack of taxation on overseas profits or ….dare i say it (for fear of getting blacklisted) the number of vampire squids who have a particularly similar religious faith. Remember Invictus while history may not repeat exactly it sure as hell rhymes and the people are beginning to murmur….

    Food for thought.