Succinct Summations week ending April 26, 2013.

Positives:

1) With ~70% of S&P500 companies reporting, Q1 earnings are beating expectations (Q4=68.6%). Earnings have risen 3.5% year over year. (Ex financials +1.6%).
2) Despite some slowing economic data here and overseas, the Dow S&P and Nasdaq will all close up for the week.
3) High yield spreads have dropped to their lowest levels in 2 years, signaling a healthy appetite for risk.
4) Weekly jobless claims fell 16,000 to 339,000 — the lowest reading in 6 weeks.
5) New home sales rise 1.5% v expectations of 1.2% sending the homebuilder stock index to a new closing 52 week high
6) Q1 personal consumption expenditure gained 3.2% improving at the best pace since 2010.
7) Q1 U.K. GDP grew 0.3% v expectations of 0.1%.
8) Italy (finally) gets new PM, Enrico Letta sending Italian 10-year yields to their lowest levels since 2010.
9) France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Greece all had strong weeks after underperforming U.S. indices all year.
10)UK economy skirts a triple dip in Q1 with a .3% q/o/q gain, better than est of up .1% and follows a contraction in Q4.

Negatives:

1) AP’s twitter account was hacked causing another flash crash — individuals are still reticent to trust the integrity of markets.
2) Q1 GDP comes in at +2.5% v expectations of +3.0%.
Corporate Revenue growth is flat, up 0.1% year over year with only 36% beating rev estimates and 44% missing.
3) U.S. based stock funds reported $7.3B in weekly outflows, the most since July 2012 (could be a contrarian buy signal).
4) March durable goods fall by -5.7% v expectations of -2.9%.( Core capex rose 0.2% v expectations of 0.3%).
5) Of the 855 companies (any index) that have reported earnings, only 59% have beaten EPS (lowest reading since this current bull market began).
6) U.S. existing home sales came in at -0.6% v expectations of +0.4%.
7) Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment declined to 76.4 from 78.6 a month earlier — the lowest reading in 3 months.
8) Chinese flash PMI came in at 50.5 v expectations of 51.5 (above 50 indicates expansion but this was not an insignificant miss)
9) German flash PMI came in at 48.8 from 50.6 in March (below 50 signals contraction). French PMI comes in at a dismal 44.4, up from 40 in March.
10) Spanish unemployment in Q1 rises to 27.2% from 26% in prior q.

Category: Markets

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8 Responses to “Succinct Summation Of Week's Events (April 26, 2013)”

  1. Estragon says:

    Positives #7 and #10 appear to be pretty much the same.

  2. Angryman1 says:

    Barry, any clue how long this economic boom is going to last? My guess for a 3-7 years at least. When these inertia’s get going, they don’t stop. Investment looks to have normalized from the Y2K refit splurge and lowered wages have made America attractive for manufacturing again, stopping that decline. Even Temp firms are struggling to find people at times cause companies suck them up if they like them.

    My guess government data will be revised and the obvious lags will be fished out the next 6-12 months. I see unemployment dropping like a rock later this year when the upward revisions force the government to add more jobs to the Birth/Death model.

    Even the housing bubble areas in SoCal and Florida are starting to feel it.

  3. [...] Succinct Summation of This Week’s Events (The Big Picture) [...]

  4. wisegrowth says:

    1st Q Real GDP will be revised up… Everybody needs to relax about it.

  5. [...] – Succinct Summation Of The Week’s Events (Barry Ritholtz, TheBigPicture) [...]

  6. UK Q1 GDP was 1.2% Q/Q … american media reported 0.3 forgetting to annualize the data.