My afternoon train reading:

• April Is the New May (Barron’s) see also Why it pays to sell in May (Marketwatch)
• Beware of those who cry ‘bubble’ about bonds  (USA Today)
• Alpha is a Finite Resource (TRB) see also Hedge funds are too big to beat the market (CBS MoneyWatch)
• What’s Behind the Big Move Up for Google? Hint: Facebook (Barron’s)
• Twitter: The Carnival Barker of Investing (Motley Fool) see also Twitter Arrives on Wall Street, via Bloomberg (DealBook)
Thaler: Shifting Our Retirement Savings Into Automatic (NYT)
• Jobs Report: Don’t Panic Yet—the Numbers Will (Probably) Be Revised Up (Daily Beast) see also Austerity bites? (Economist)
Sorry, Libertarians, History Shows Bitcoin Isn’t the Future (Bloomberg)
• Housing market mania: Multiple offers, many above the asking price as buyers coddle sellers & OK deals with few contingencies (SF Gate) but see Investor frenzy over housing has peaked (Fortune)
• Hilarious Amazon Reviews of the Hutzler 571 Banana Slicer (Amazon)

Whats for brunch?


Bearish on Bullion

Category: Financial Press

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

21 Responses to “10 Sunday Morning Reads”

  1. MayorQuimby says:

    Why are news articles always focused on short-term/recent market moves ie. a 2 day sell-off?


    BR: about 75% of these articles are neither recent news driven nor short term related.

  2. sailorman says:

    RE:Beware of those who cry ‘bubble’ about bonds

    I remember quite well Ken Fischer taking the position in 2006 that there was no housing bubble because everyone knew housing was overpriced. How did that work out for those who listened?

    • sailorman says:

      I should add, that In my own mind, when an asset is over priced, it will eventually revert to the mean and, when doing so, over corrects to the down side. When a bubble collapses, prices drop far beyond the mean. So, part of the definition of a bubble, when reviewing the past, is to look at the depth of the correction.

  3. hue says:

    the real problem with law schools: they graduate too many lawyers (Slate) why should we care? it’s like many things in the economy and employment sitch. too much supply, not enough demand

    send (lawyers guns & money)

    enjoy every sandwich: Warren Zevon – VH1 (Inside) Out (YouTube) a documentary about the making of the Grammy nominated album THE WIND, Warren Zevon’s final recording. featuring guest appearances: Jackson Browne, Billy Bob Thornton, Dave Barry, Bruce Springsteen, Jorge Calderon, Ry Cooder, Waddy Wachtel, Don Henley, Stevie Nicks, Mike Fleetwood, Tom Petty, Timothy B.Schmit, Joe Walsh, Dwight Yoakam, David Lindley, David Letterman …

  4. rd says:

    I figured out that the hedge fund industry is probably the biggest current bubble a year or so ago when I realized that there were more hedge funds than stocks in the Wilshire 5000. It seemed like every mutual fund management change was occurring because the previous manager went off to start a new hedge fund. Now that the consequences of having too many hedge funders chasing too few investments are becoming clear to their investors, it will be interesting to see what happens when the assets decline precipitously. Will they offer two for one sales on fees to retain investors? Or maybe offer a Lamborghini to somebody who makes a $50 million investment before the end of the quarter.

    Bonds may be over-valued today because of the unprecedented central bank action, but they won’t be in a bubble until the velocity of money amps up quite a bit. Even then, the impact on government budgets due to increasing interest rates will drive a fair amount of austerity which will dampen the economy fairly quickly. So it is unlikely that rampant inflation that would drive classifying bonds into a bubble is probably still at least a few years away unless velocity picks up and the central banks lose complete control of their money supply. It would take that type of scenario to make bond values drop 50% or so over a couple of years which is the usual outcome of bubbles.

  5. VennData says:

    Faked Moon Landing? Conspiracy Beliefs Fall Along Party Lines

    ​Democrats believe in science,​ The GOP voters believe in every crackpot theory, hoax, nuttiness and conspiracy there is.

    Thank you for being ignorant GOP voter. I tip my hat to your ability to avoid facts, science and the data, for the most outlandish theories, astrological nonsense and Iunacy. Instead of the elephant, you should have the tin foil hat as your party symbol.

  6. call me ahab says:

    “What’s for brunch?”

    sliced bananas thanks to the Hutzler 571-

    guess I can get rid of the chainsaw

  7. RW says:

    Richard Thaler’s op-ed is an expansion of an article in Science (vol 339, no 6124 pp 1152-1153), available w/o wall at the link below (ht FC Dobbs)

    Behavioral economics and the retirement savings crisis

  8. RW says:

    Meant to say “summary” rather than “expansion” above but no biggie.

  9. James Cameron says:

    “The average job growth for the last four months is 181,000, and 169,000 over the last year. Nonetheless, in the 45 months since the recession ended, job creation has averaged 113,000 fewer jobs a month than in a normal recovery, according to Congress’s Joint Economic Committee.”

    Making Work Not Pay, WSJ

    What a rag . . .

    Here’s average monthly job creation for each of the years 2000 thru the first three month of 2013 according to the BLS:

    162.00 2000
    -146.42 2001
    -44.33 2002
    +5.17 2003
    +168.25 2004
    +207.00 2005
    +172.58 2006
    +92.92 2007
    -301.42 2008
    -421.00 2009
    +85.17 2010
    +175.25 2011
    +182.75 2012
    +168.00 2013

    According to the WSJ, average monthly job creation during a normal recovery should be approx. 205,000 (113,000 plus the monthly average over the last 45 months beginning in June 2009 of 92,000) . . . yet in only a single year of the last 13 years was this number ever exceeded – and then only barely – with the remainder falling far short. The average monthly job creation during the entire eight years of the Bush administration: 19,200. And this is being generous since they also own at least the first six months of 2009 when over 3.8 million jobs were lost.

    Maybe the WSJ should become more curious and ask what a normal recovery should consist of anymore in view of this job data for the last 13 years. And looking at those Bush job numbers, maybe they should have been asking hard questions during the last administration when the table was being set for the fiscal and economic challenges that we have today . . . at least the current administration has the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression to point at.

    Again, what a rag . . .

  10. nofoulsontheplayground says:

    “CTRL+ALT+LANDFILL – China’s Secret Computer Graveyard”

  11. RW says:

    Haircuts on Intrade (ht MT)

    When Intrade halted trading abruptly on March 10, my initial reaction was that the company had commingled member funds with its own …in violation of its Trust and Security Statement. …
    The obvious lesson in all this is that in the absence of vigorous oversight, “trust and security” statements can’t really be trusted to provide security.

  12. Jojo says:

    Economic Indicators | Jobs and Unemployment
    The unemployment rate is hugely underestimating slack in the labor market
    By Heidi Shierholz | April 5, 2013

    The March jobs report released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was a big, negative surprise and underscored that a robust jobs recovery has still yet to materialize. The job growth of 88,000 in March was far lower than the 2012 average increase of 183,000.

    It is important to keep in mind that the month-to-month numbers can be volatile, however; in this case the first quarter average growth rate is likely a better measure of the underlying trend. But at 168,000 per month, this first quarter average is not even close to adequate; at that rate, we would not return to the prerecession unemployment rate until late 2019. To get back to the prerecession unemployment rate in three years, we would need to add 320,000 jobs every single month–almost double our current rate.

  13. Jojo says:

    NY Times
    April 5, 2013, 6:50 pm
    Fake Twitter Followers Become Multimillion-Dollar Business

    Far from slowing, the market for fake Twitter followers seems to be taking off.

    The fake Twitter follower phenomenon made headlines last summer after Mitt Romney’s Twitter following jumped by 100,000 in a matter of days. That news inspired a number of social media management companies like StatusPeople and SocialBakers to develop Web tools that try to determine what percent of a person’s Twitter followings are fake.

    But those sites have hardly deterred people from dealing in the market for fake followers and fake retweets. The market is also becoming more sophisticated. In many cases, high-quality false Twitter accounts are nearly impossible to discern from the real thing. Those that sell them claim that they can make up to a million dollars in one week.

    Andrea Stroppa and Carlo De Micheli, two Italian security researchers, spent the last several months investigating the underground economy for Twitter followers and said they had found a thriving market.

    There are now more than two dozen services that sell fake Twitter accounts, but Mr. Stroppa and Mr. De Micheli said they limited themselves to the most popular networks, forums and Web sites, which include Fiverr, SeoClerks, InterTwitter, FanMeNow, LikedSocial, SocialPresence and Viral Media Boost. Based on the number of accounts for sale through those services — and eliminating overlapping accounts — they estimate that there are now as many as 20 million fake follower accounts.

  14. DeDude says:

    The weaker the gun control laws the more gun violence in the state. But that is just the facts.

  15. USSofA says:

    Had a great laugh about the banana slicer. Funnier yet, after reading some comments, some folks are taking comments seriously and some have actually purchased the stupid thing.

  16. Joe Friday says:

    James Cameron,

    What a rag . . .


    When George Mitchell (former US attorney, former federal judge, former US Senator) was on Charlie Rose the other night, he recounted the following:

    * In 2004, Bush won the popular vote by about 3 million votes, and garnered 286 electoral votes (ignoring for the sake of the story that he actually lost Ohio). The WSJ Editorial Page printed:

    Bush won by what any measure is a decisive mandate for a second term. He has been given the kind of mandate few politicians are ever fortunate enough to receive.

    * In 2012, Obama was reelected by about 5 million votes, and garnered 332 electoral votes. The WSJ Editorial Page printed:

    Obama won one of the narrower reelections in modern times. He will now have to govern without a mandate.


    I dunno of they’re buying their ink by the barrel, but they’re certainly buying their Purple Kool-Aid by the barrel.

  17. LLouis says:

    ”Climbing High In Dubai”
    Fantastic pictures of Dubai, from the ”russian guys”, the same ones who climbed (illegaly) on top of the of the great pyramid in Egypt.
    This city really looks like the cartoon megalopolis from the future…

  18. hammerandtong2001 says:

    The Hutzler 571 banana slicer reviews are, indeed, hilarious.

    Thanks for posting.

    Throw away that Ginsu knife set – you can now use the miracle banana slicer from Hutzler!


  19. garbo999 says:

    The SF Gate article is from March 25, 2004! Intentional?