My morning reads:

• This Bull Is Like the Tech Bubble, but Different (Businessweek)
• 63 Brand-New Quotes From Warren Buffett (Motley Fool)
• What Does Japan Mean For The Rest of the World? (Tim Duy’s Fed Watch) see also Mrs Watanabe all over the map but values not yet back to 2007 (Investing Japan’s Institutional Capital)
• Signposts: A Daily (Baker’s) Dozen for Investors (Above the Market)
• For Insurers, No Doubts on Climate Change (NYT)
• CBO sees brighter economy with budget deficit to plunge to $642 billion this year (Washington Post) see also U.S. Budget Deficit Shrinks Far Faster Than Expected (NYT)
• The real IRS scandal: That 501(c)4 groups are tax exempt at all  (Los Angeles Times)
• How To Have A Longer Marriage Than Kim Kardashian. (Scientific American)
• Is Apple’s iPhone really ‘dead in the water’? (Fortune)
• Facebook and ruined reputations (MarketWatch)

What are you reading?


Currencies react to Bank of Japan’s recent monetary moves
Source: Washington Post

Category: Financial Press

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

14 Responses to “10 Wednesday AM Reads”

  1. Mike in Nola says:

    Fleckenstein made some interesting observations that Abenomics could trigger derivatives because it is pushing up JGB yields and this could screw up other markets.

  2. James Cameron says:

    US Navy launches first drone from aboard an aircraft carrier

    On the subject of the most recent CBO budget projection, they also had some plain language regarding deficits in the out years, which has received less attention. See their overview:

  3. rd says:

    Insurers and climate change is an interesting lesson in public policy.

    For a long time, insurers, the military, and sports coaches were pretty much the only people who got young males from 16 to 25 right. Now the science on brain development is basically proving what those groups had figured out empirically years ago.

    We are seeing the same thing with insurers and climate change now. As the article points out, insurers don’t cover flood damage, which is covered by government insurance. Instead, they cover things like wind damage which tends to cause less destruction and can be largely amelorated with improved building codes for new construction, so the insurance industry is very involved with the building code groups.

    However, flooding by rivers and ocean storm surges is much more of a local zoning issue than anything else. Flooding is pretty easy to avoid – you just don’t build on the low ground and you design stormwater management systems to avoid flooding buildings in higher ground areas. It is pretty costly and often unaesthetic to contruct buildings in flood zones so that they won’t get flooded. Personally, I have thought that states and counties should bear part of the cost of flood insurance subsidies so that they would have skin in the game when making zoning decisions. It is pretty easy to put in disaster-prone propery tax revenue generators if another party steps in to pick up most of the disaster cost.

    The big move by insurers to control their costs due to climate change was when they walked away from Florida. They made the determination, just like they did with 18-year old male drivers, that there was a very large risk here that would need a lot of money to cover it. Since the wind fields from large hurricanes cover areas far inland from the storm surge areas, they decided that there wasn’t enough of a low risk population (like the parents of the teenage driver as well as the neighbors) to warrant continuing insurance in a geographic area.

    I assume that if the coastlines of Alabama, Mississippi, Louisana, and Texas developed the same way that Florida has, you would see insurers putting moratoriums on new policies within a 100 miles of the coast in those locations as well.

    Right now the federal and state governments are betting against global warming causing increased sea levels and increased intense rainfalls by continuing to have pretty low-cost flood insurance. It is likely that the next decade will see significantly increased flood insurance costs and rezonings for new developments as the governments realize that they are going to have to start thinking more like insurers than benevolent rich uncles.

    • willid3 says:

      wonder when they start doing that for tornadoes too since they dont just happen on the coast, it will be much harder to fence off. and then there are hail storms (big source of damage in lots of places). will they do that then too? since both of those are likely to get worse as climate change gets cranked up.

  4. carchamp1 says:

    As for the marriage post:

    Modern legal marriage is the most insidious practice in the western world. It amounts to nothing less than enslavement. And our so-called “family” courts are essentially kidnapping machines, destroying the relationships between fathers and their children. Living under the constant threat of losing your children and financial security in divorce is no way to live.

    Marriage as a state matter should be abolished. Until it is, men, especially, heed my advice and NEVER get married. It is the surest way to financial ruin. And, men again, as far as legal authority and rights go, fathers are nothing more than wallets. Practice safe sex. Always wear a condom and/or get a vasectomy. Don’t become a victim of our so-called “family” courts.

  5. VennData says:

    Polar wander linked to climate change

    ​Send your compasses to Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Boehner, Cain, Huckabee, Palin, and McConnell to get them re calibrated.​

  6. Concerned Neighbour says:

    I’m reading Mr. Kuroda’s refutations of those who see a massive bubble in the Japanese stock market (you know, the one that has gone up ~60% in half a year, and is now going up seemingly daily by an additional 2%).

    Of course, the US markets aren’t much behind. I have never seen markets so completely disconnected from the underlying economic fundamentals. It’s unprecedented. Thank you central banks. The US markets, after already increasing well over 100% from the crisis trough, have surged over 20% straight up in half a year.

    All those cynical commenters and/or bold prognosticators were right; DOW 36K really is right around the corner. All it would take for the DOW to hit 36K by the end of this year is for the “market” to increase ~1% a day, which appears to be the “new normal”. Should be a walk in the park.

  7. Pantmaker says:

    Per our discussion yesterday….Tepper’s 13F is out.

  8. RW says:

    The [latest] Rise and Fall of the Austerity Doctrine

    “…the failure to anticipate the crisis was a relatively minor sin. Economies are complicated, ever-changing entities; it was understandable that few economists realized the extent to which short-term lending and securitization of assets such as subprime mortgages had recreated the old risks that deposit insurance and bank regulation were created to control.

    …what happened next—the way policymakers turned their back on practically everything economists had learned about how to deal with depressions, the way elite opinion seized on anything that could be used to justify austerity—was a much greater sin.

    …To the extent that policymakers and elite opinion in general have made use of economic analysis at all, they have, as the saying goes, done so the way a drunkard uses a lamppost: for support, not illumination. Papers and economists who told the elite what it wanted to hear were celebrated, despite plenty of evidence that they were wrong; critics were ignored, no matter how often they got it right.”

    in New York Review of Books

    The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire
    by Neil Irwin

    Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea
    by Mark Blyth

    The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America
    by David A. Stockman

  9. DeDude says:

    LA times get it wrong. Yes the tax excempt status of 501(c)4 groups is a scandal; but that is “another scandal” that may deserve its own scrutiny later. That does not detract from the scandal that IRS appears to have used political criteria in selecting which 501(c)4 groups it gave extra scrutiny. We have given IRS more independence as a result of the Nixon scandals of administrations targeting enemies with tax audits. If IRS agents or offices use that independence to target according to their own political preferences, then that has to be stopped, and punished severely. I cannot wait to see the responsible supervisors explain what seem to be very damaging evidence of political targeting.

  10. willid3 says:

    the leading EU austerians (the Germans) are the poorest in the EU?

  11. ilsm says:

    If the pentagon’s cut of GDP were cut by 2.5% to German’s war spending rate the deficit would be about $200B then Fox News could dig up Greenspan’s worry about declining deficits and there being no ‘safe haven’ for rich folks’ money.