Summary: As the season progresses, we see corn production estimates declining, and corn prices declining. Indeed, the early information suggests yields will be less than government forecasts, and that the USDA estimates will decline starting in June. Higher corn prices and increased worries about yields should drive accelerating sales of fertilizers, pesticides and higher yielding seeds.

 

Category: Commodities, Think Tank

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3 Responses to “Agricultural and Farm Update”

  1. Theravadin says:

    Good report. I think there is movement to come in the ag sector. Not so sure about Monsanto, though. It seems probable that at some point the whole GMO/labelling issue will start to bite… but when? I keep reaching to short them, and pulling back. This GMO wheat popping up in Oregon could do material damage to the US ag exports, and Monsanto’s successful legal defence of their IP looks like making collecting damages from Monsanto, resulting from problems caused by their IP, just that much easier. It’s all timing, though.

  2. Khav says:

    First sentence says “we see corn production estimates declining, and corn prices declining”. My economics teacher would think corn prices would increase if production estimates were declining….

    Last year we had one of the earliest corn plantings ever, and expectations were for a huge crop until drought took over. This year, the midwest is finally getting rain, but its delaying planting and leading to flooding in some areas.

  3. CentralIowaFarmer says:

    Elwyn Taylor, Iowa State Extension (retired) meterologist is focusing on 1947 as analog weather year. Turned out to be dry that year after a wet cold spring. We planted all of our corn and beans this spring (nice to have satellite steering after the sun goes down), but now have about 3-5% of those planted acres under water. Prevent Plant dates have arrived for Iowa, and 15% of crop will likely not be planted, or yield much lower due to lack of growing degree days. Yesterday in SE Minnesota they had to start the crop insurance meeting 90 minutes late, due to lineup outside the door (each person had to sign in). 500+ attendees. Coupled with last year’s low carryout, if E.Taylor is correct and we yield 147 bu/ac. as a nation, supply will be tighter than last year. Govt. is currently using 158 bu/ac for yield. You might think Monsanto, et al. as powerful, but Ma Nature is still in charge! :)